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User Info The Pattern of The Market in forum [Market-Ticker]
Posts: 2392
Incept: 2008-05-04

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Looks like Schwab is adding fulfillment, marketing, and G&A together to come up with their SG&A # for amazon (8,949 = 5,719 + 2,513 + 717). One thing I've learned being in finance (and specifically IR some) in the last 7 years, is that every one of the financial sites pulls/processes the #s differently, even for things like Enterprise Value and market cap - which should be very easy to calc (eg: Schwab has the wrong Enterprise Value for my firm, overstating it by roughly 450 million, or ~480 million if they aren't added in preferred stock and quite a few of those sites have the wrong # of shares outstanding for a popular competitor by a massive amount - like more than 70% off on share count). I do my best to rely on 10-k's and 10-Q's wherever possible (or a company's press release tables).

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-09-06

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I guess the financial industry is A-OK now? All the government had to do was do away with mark-to-market in March 2009 and everything is great forever for banks?
Posts: 7702
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Hibbitt sports blew up today and took the sporting retailers down with them. Every day we see more carnage and the only thing holding Amazon up is their cloud service. I am seeing distributors begging for business and some retailers are simply giving stuff away. I get emails from Midway USA multiple times a day and now they are doing the daily special. Yesterday they were selling 500 rounds of 45 Cal ammo for $140.00. I checked with my wholesalers and that was about $25.00 under cost. Today it was 380 ammo. Anyone see a pattern?
Hibbitt sells a lot of shoes and clothing and it looks like the stuff isn't selling anymore. I spoke to several distributors who had booths at shot show and they are seeing very little business. Something is going on and it isn't good. Every part of the market is slowing down even though the FAKE NEWS won't let the public see it yet. I noticed the trucking firms all down today and their charts look like crap. The writing is on the wall in blood, yet so few see it.
Posts: 528
Incept: 2012-12-05

Huntsville, AL
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My perception has been that the highway volume of truckers on US72, I565, and US231/US241 has been decreasing slowly for several years. The long uphill grade between my home and just about anywhere West (Church, work, shopping, etc.) is no longer the waiting panic attack it once was due to the heavy truck traffic. I haven't thought that was a good thing.

I pass the only major mall in the metro twice a day, and the last few Christmas seasons I can see a whole lot of open spaces on the upper parking deck level there. Either Target, either Sam's Club, Staples, Office Depot, Lowe's, is a quick in-and-out, not interminable delay like it was a while back. Even Wally World (where I never shop, having other choices) seems down in parking volume.

And yet, I hear people talking about their new "gaming" computers and how whiz-bang it is, their new personal water-sports craft, their new cars that they financed for 7 years, their "great deal" they got in a vacation motor home or a mountain condo on Ebay or Craigslist ("$40 thousand for 250 acres of wooded and watered land on a high hilltop in East Tennessee!"). I hear this and want to ask, "What are you thinking?"

So, on the one hand I think I see signs of a slowdown of sorts, and it might be significant. On the other hand I see signs of unchecked consumer anxiety along with likely misplaced confidence, and I'm pretty sure that's significant when combined with the average personal and student loan debt. Not to mention that people in their 50s are taking 30-year mortgage loans for houses in the half million and up range.

To be honest, none of this looks too good to me as I seek to pare it down to the minimum as I approach retirement (289 days). Well, I ain't playing that game. If the darkness approaches, then it does. If I can meet it with light, I will. Otherwise: Meh.

That is all.

Posts: 27
Incept: 2014-10-21

Tulsa, OK
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AZTrader -

"the only thing holding Amazon up is their cloud service"

That's scary. Their cloud service is HUGELY overpriced. They have a few good things going (S3 is pretty solid), but EC2 is ridiculously expensive. We use Linode, and it is about 1/10 of the cost of AWS for the same real speed (not specs, but actual speed). AWS (unless they've upgraded recently) is largely old tech, and doesn't really work well in the type of virtualized hosting environment they are in.

With Linode, I can get a production-quality box for a small volume site for $10/month. I have medium-volume sites for about $200/month (getting 1,300 requests/second) - that includes a load balancer and two 6-core boxes, and daily backups. Amazon may have something similar on spec, but the Linode all-SSD hardware blows it out of the water.

If Amazon is hoping for high-margin cloud services to save them, they have a different thing coming.
Posts: 147938
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Over the last quarter I believe they've had something like NINE price reductions on various AWS service offerings.

"Cloud" is a commodity. The 'first mover' advantage holds FOR A WHILE, but there's a huge problem with being first -- you are also first to deploy OLDER TECH that you then need to depreciate!

This ultimately will **** you straight up the ass.

Winding it down.
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