The Rot Of America
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-03-14 09:14
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
The Rot Of America
 

The truth is out there and is even reported by government agencies, if you bother to read it.

WASHINGTON – A record number of U.S. counties -- more than 1 in 3 -- are now dying off, hit by an aging population and weakened local economies that are spurring young adults to seek jobs and build families elsewhere.

New 2012 census estimates released Thursday highlight the population shifts as the U.S. encounters its most sluggish growth levels since the Great Depression.

The findings also reflect the increasing economic importance of foreign-born residents as the U.S. ponders an overhaul of a major 1965 federal immigration law. Without new immigrants, many metropolitan areas such as New York, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh and St. Louis would have posted flat or negative population growth in the last year.

There's no population growth without importing low-skill or unskilled illegal immigrants?

That's seen as a salvation?

Give me a break.

The economic reality is that debt accumulation eventually strangles growth.  Debt requires servicing, which consumes funds you would otherwise spend on investment and consumption.  As that service rises as a percentage of your income your ability to drive economic expansion dwindles until it reaches the point that additional debt actually makes the economy worse rather than better.

We're there folks.  We crossed over.  

But our government and most-particular our President refuse to accept this.

In publicly saying he does not desire a balanced budget, the president has in effect said that he will continue to increase our debt to other countries. This makes us beholden to those countries, and makes us more vulnerable economically as well as from a national security policy standpoint.

It's not about desire.  It's about necessity.

This is about arithmetic and a failed policy that was evident as a failure three decades ago but which was followed anyway because it was "easier."  This is exactly like the man who gets up in the morning, is dragging, and takes a snort of coke up his nose to "perk up" and make it into the office on time.

That's a ridiculously destructive thing to do, but he does it.  When he starts it doesn't appear to have any bad side effects.  But indeed it does, in that not only does the drug cost money but worse it has an intermediate-term drag on the body, which means you need ever-increasing amounts to get the same effect.

But there is an indirect cost buried in there as well in the form of insidious and invisible damage to your heart.  Eventually you will collapse in the morning instead of having a second or third snort, if you don't stop.

And the bad news is that there is no cheap or easy way to stop.  If you choose to quit before you collapse you're going to have a very bad time for a while as you withdraw and rebuild your body and its resources.  This will take time and there's no way to shortcut it or evade the necessary pain.

Our government and our people have become addicts.  We are denying reality and have been for quite some time.  Our cities and towns are dying and nobody in our government -- not Congress, not The Administration -- nobody -- will tell the truth.  They will not risk the backlash today even knowing that the ultimate outcome will be far worse than dealing with it now.

We're very close to being quite-literally done as a nation folks, and with The Fed and government playing "wide-open monetary blast" there's no margin left to try to counteract a downturn.

And that downturn is already baked in the cake.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info The Rot Of America in forum [Market-Ticker]
Shrimpngrits
Posts: 156
Incept: 2008-10-14

South Carolina
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When it comes to selecting/electing our leadership, the citizenry has not applied the standard of "be faithful in a small thing before we trust you with a larger thing." Therefore we get the same destructive policies from our federal government that have wreaked such havoc on Chicago, Detroit, etc . . . basically by over-burdening the producer class in order to buy votes from the dependent class. Policies that have failed on a city level and failed on a state level cannot possibly succeed on a national level. But here we are, with a group of leaders who view their job requirement in two simple terms: Use the Fed to paper over problems, then "fling blame and duck shame."

Sure, they have bought some time. But as Todd Harrison said, "We bought the cancer and sold the car crash."

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"Rome is burning--and instead of putting out the fire, most Americans are looking for a bag of marshmallows."
Docj
Posts: 999
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Quote:
Without new immigrants, many metropolitan areas such as New York, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh and St. Louis would have posted flat or negative population growth in the last year.


Heh - and what do all of these (and may other "dying" areas) have in common? Well, among other things, they're all "deep blue".

But holy mackerel, KD - the punch-line of that article is entirely about "buying more coke"...

Hack wrote..
Mark Mather, an associate vice president at the Population Reference Bureau, noted that political efforts to downsize government and reduce federal spending could also have a significant impact on future population winners and losers.

Since 2010, many of the fastest-growing U.S. metro areas have also been those that historically received a lot of federal dollars, including Fort Stewart, Ga., Jacksonville, N.C., Crestview, Fla., and Charleston-North Charleston, S.C., all home to military bases. Per-capita federal spending rose from about $5,300 among the fastest-growing metros from 2000 to 2010, to about $8,200 among the fastest-growing metros from 2011 to 2012.

"Federal funding has helped many cities weather the decline in private sector jobs," Mather said.


Spit.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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Pittsburgh has virtually no Mexicans or other central Americans. As immigrants, there are mostly educated Asians. Chicago, as I understand,has tons of Mexicans. The author of this piece doesn't even get the facts right.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2662
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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Yes I have said multiple times here that the government view is that immigration is necessary to keep expanding the population base because government promises only work when the base of the pyramid expands. I wonder what GDP would have been ex illegal immigration?

Kyle Bass mentioned this I think in the Q and A session after his talk about the aging population in Japan. Someone mentioned immigrants to replace the aging population and Kyle basically responded from where, the Japanese don't care for a lot of races and what does more workers do for wages?

Europe is doing the same thing. Their imports are mostly Muslim and ours are mostly Catholic. Not calling that a win but it could be worse.

Currencies are not the only thing that gets debased. We are debasing our population as well as we go down the tubes.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Rickcaird
Posts: 78
Incept: 2009-08-17

Boynton Beach, Fl
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I like the addiction analogy. To recover from addiction, the addict needs to step way back and concentrate on recovery, not expansion of his world. To recover requires a concentrated effort on recovery. Presidents and politicians refuse to understand that to fix the problems they have created, they need to withdraw and concentrate of fixes.
Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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Some of these places that are losing population need to lose population. Rural living is a cheap oil phenomenon. It isn't the future. And I'm not a peak nick at all. But dirt cheap oil is gone.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Rickcaird
Posts: 78
Incept: 2009-08-17

Boynton Beach, Fl
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Oh, I saw this morning that the yield on HY bonds has dropped to about 5.5%. This is not commensurate with the risk, but is the result of MMT at the Fed (as well as borrowing as a fiscal policy). This will not end well.
Ramthebulls
Posts: 10860
Incept: 2007-09-24
Gold A True American Patriot!
Queens, NY
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Quote:
But while Pittsburgh saw a more than 50 percent increase during that same time, the city's overall Hispanic population lags behind many areas in the eastern part of the state. The city's Hispanic population went from about 4,400 people in the year 2000 to 6,964 residents in 2010, a number that was not enough to overcome its overall population loss.


http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/loca....

Seems hispanics are helping staunch the rate of population decline at a minimum.

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Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give.
Phxkevin
Posts: 353
Incept: 2010-06-25
Green
Phoenix Arizona
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In general, we can afford to loose more people, hopefully not the ones in the workforce.

I'm early, but beware the ides of march

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Congress persons are all the same, republican or democrat, conservative or liberal. They talk a good game, but the results (or lack thereof) show something different.
Iou
Posts: 1027
Incept: 2009-03-16
A True American Patriot!
The Twilight Zone
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The drug dealers need to find new clients to replace the ones that are dropping dead and broke.

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat

Dogfarm
Posts: 3254
Incept: 2007-11-29
Gold
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KD: another excellent piece and very timely with regards to what Kyle Bass has indicated in Japan. (I liked his comment about Japan being 'the most xenophobic country in the world.)

The facts are quite obvious at this point and President Obama has ZERO intention of turning off the immigrant spigot...so how do we, as a people do that?

In the fox article you referenced, this quote caught my eye:

Quote:
Immigrants are innovators, entrepreneurs, they're making things happen. They create jobs," said Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, a Republican, at an immigration conference in his state last week. Saying Michigan should be a top destination for legal immigrants to come and boost Detroit and other struggling areas, Snyder made a special appeal: "Please come here."


So what, America doesn't have enough entrepreneurs? I find the Governer's quote quite insulting to Americans.

Speaking of entrepreneurship in the Middle East - all GCC countries are much more protective of their 'turf' than the US. It takes an act of Allah just to set up a company in most of the GCC countries. Also, it is incredibly expensive and risky and you will never be fully accepted. Also, if your local partner rips you off, you can pretty much forget about a court dealing with it equitably. Oh the stories I could tell if someone wasn't most likely intercepting my posts and emails. That will have to wait until i am back stateside....someday.

So yeah, I am a little*****ed off when I see a US State governor begging for other people to come in and compete against fellow Americans.

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“Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour” (1 Peter 5:8)
Aquapura
Posts: 131
Incept: 2012-04-19

Land of 10,000 taxes
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Quote:
"Immigrants are innovators, entrepreneurs, they're making things happen. They create jobs," said Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, a Republican, at an immigration conference in his state last week. Saying Michigan should be a top destination for legal immigrants to come and boost Detroit and other struggling areas, Snyder made a special appeal: "Please come here."


I'm reminded of what Canada Immigration said to me when I was getting a work permit. "What can you do that a Canadian cannot?" I had a VERY good answer and I WISH DEMAND that US Immigration enforce the same. Unfortunately they do not. Gov. Snyder should be encouraging Michigan kids to become innovators, engineers, etc. Instead the "kids" in Detroit want to turn it into a center for arts and garden on vacant blocks where houses once stood. WTF?!

Quote:
In contrast, the Texas metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston and Austin continued to be big draws for young adults, ranking first, second and fourth among large metro areas in domestic migration due to diversified economies that include oil and gas production.


Texas has low cost of living, no state income tax, one of the best places for business and is not strangled by unions....of course it's a big draw. Oil and gas is big but it is far from the only business in the state. TX has immigrants for sure, but I know several "white" people that have moved there because they have work there.

The Northeast and Midwest has problems of their own doing. Filling the place with immigrants will not fix the structural problems....even if said immigrants are educated "innovators."
Nomullet
Posts: 6825
Incept: 2007-11-11
Green
SW
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We could probably 'steal' 50,000,000 educated Asians with the stroke of a pen... but I guess a porous border is easier.

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Don't confuse clear thinking with simplistic thinking.
--Nomullet
Trades50
Posts: 4217
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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CA and Illinois are loosing people because of increasing taxes and the cost of living.

When your paying over 12% in taxes at restaurants it's time to avoid the area.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
2dogs
Posts: 2941
Incept: 2009-03-25
Gold
Land of the Lost
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Quote:
Chicago, as I understand, has tons of Mexicans.
Yes, Chicago is a sanctuary city.

I'm not sure why that's considered a good thing. Illegal aliens use more resources than they contribute to society, so why are illegals desired? I don't get it.

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You can't defeat the combined effects of massive voter fraud, the Free **** Army, and the entire bought and paid for media complex. This nation is done.
Steelhead23
Posts: 2043
Incept: 2008-09-09
Green
Portland OR
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Quote:
The facts are quite obvious at this point and President Obama has ZERO intention of turning off the immigrant spigot...so how do we, as a people do that?
Dogfarm - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/31....

This isn't an important issue to me, but it appears that those supporting immigration reform have a different set of facts than those opposing it. If only he would deport a few banksters.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated

Azzi
Posts: 144
Incept: 2009-10-08
Green
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Deficits don't matter. Even if the size of govt is reduced 50% it will take over 100 years to pay off the debt at the current interest rate and impossible if the rate rises, so it cannot be done. The consensus in govt is to max out the credit card before it is taken away, print and hope it will last long enough to inflate the debt away at the rate it is being increased. The only alternative is to default, which is not any better to govt than printing - the same devaluation will happen in one big step rather than gradually. Regardless of the choice made there is no way to avoid USD devaluation.

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The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. - Thomas Jefferson

Nomullet
Posts: 6825
Incept: 2007-11-11
Green
SW
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So called 'growth' makes it easy for talentless accumulators to get wealthy.

Continuous growth is impossible mathematically unless we find a way to get off of this planet.

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Don't confuse clear thinking with simplistic thinking.
--Nomullet
Jata1
Posts: 5068
Incept: 2009-03-08
Green
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The wet dream of the elites is to have millions and millions of new slaves. They see how China has enriched the elite political class by having seemingly unlimited slaves and they want the same. But we can't all live in one place now can we. Just more ****ing ignorance from the elitist plutocrats
Captbill
Posts: 842
Incept: 2008-07-22
Gold A True American Patriot!
Arizona's West Shore
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Quote:
I'm not sure why that's considered a good thing. Illegal aliens use more resources than they contribute to society, so why are illegals desired? I don't get it.


Democrat voters--come on now--you know that.

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Incredible. There's Smith and he's standing there and he's got the iceberg warning in his ****ing hand, excuse me, his hand, and he's ordering more speed. Lewis Bodine, RMS Titanic
Ktrosper
Posts: 1500
Incept: 2010-04-06
Silver
ft collins co
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Gen wrote..
There's no population growth without importing low-skill or unskilled illegal immigrants?

That's seen as a salvation?
Desperate to feed the ponzi... it always leads to unchecked immigration and destruction of the culture.

Europe is turning muslim as we speak... The borders may remain, the lables on the map might still say "France, Spain, whatever.." but it ain't gonna be Europe soon as we all came to know it.

Bert wrote..
Europe is doing the same thing. Their imports are mostly Muslim and ours are mostly Catholic. Not calling that a win but it could be worse.
Good point.

Trades wrote..
CA and Illinois are loosing people because of increasing taxes and the cost of living.

Yep, and how do they respond to the vacuum that's created and the collapsing tax-base that comes along with that??? In CA's case, they open the borders and become more illegal-friendly along with continuing to jack taxes... These governments NEVER shrink, they double-down and milk the remaining tax-paying citizens with increased taxes, fees, tickets, etc.

Interesting Migration flow map: http://www.governing.com/gov-data/census....

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D

Azzi
Posts: 144
Incept: 2009-10-08
Green
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On the second thought, is it possible to have a default without devaluation?

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The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. - Thomas Jefferson
Thesev
Posts: 1384
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Louisiana
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Quote:

The economic reality is that debt accumulation eventually strangles growth. Debt requires servicing, which consumes funds you would otherwise spend on investment and consumption. As that service rises as a percentage of your income your ability to drive economic expansion dwindles until it reaches the point that additional debt actually makes the economy worse rather than better.


And again, here's the nail.

Accounting 101. I told people for many years to stop voting for Lawyers.

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The reason the republic isn't working is that it's being run as a democracy.

It doesn't matter who you are, or who you Think you are, the Math is Going to Win.
Vernonb
Posts: 398
Incept: 2009-06-03
Silver
State College, PA
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Its all about stepping on the accelerator to escape judgment from the "barabarian hoardes." They know they have screwed over the entire American populace and these little games are to buy a little more time for THEIR exit stategy.

The exit strategy ends badly in all outcomes.

1) The hoarde catches up with them and hangs them for the evil that was performed by Obama, Bush, Congress, Bernanke, and cronies

2) or they step on the accelerator to jump a Grand Canyon of their own making in a car whose true performance has been hampered by EPA and other governmental policies to flee the hoarde. When they reach the summit of the freefall flight then and only then do they realize gravity (mathematics) is controlling this ride and they have taken the expressway straight to hell. I can only hope the vehicle is a Pinto clone and catches fire on the trip down.

I can't help but wonder how many of these bastards will be fleeing the country to evade justice and retritbution after the total collpase.


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"The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants, and it provides the further advantage of giving the servants of tyranny a good conscience.”
-Alber Camus (1913-1960)
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