Which Will It Be?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-03-05 15:14
by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings
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Which Will It Be?
 

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User Info Which Will It Be? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Imustbenutz
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Allegorical visual history of the markets!

Newton said it best, "whatever goes up must come down."
Cerich
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ga
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oh...markets. yeah Karl has a point there... At first i thought this was a belayed response to the WH not going for the death star idea....
Bontly
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Detroit
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If you know what you are doing you are half way done.
If you want what you have you will always have what you want.
Mannfm11
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DFW, Tx
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So, is it liftoff or a dud? Dow 60,000 in 15 years is what one bull idiot says. Bernanke might get it there in 4 years. Be one hell of a bag to be left holding. Might wish you had invested in some of these rockets.

The **** sandwiches had already been passed out when the market made a new high last time. Shots across the bow. Dow 20,000 right ahead in 2007 and even well into 2008. FNM was okay, right. 30 days it hit an iceberg. 90 days, it was a zero Ditto FRE, AIG, C, LEH, GM, GE (would have been a zero without $600 billion in government guarantees) and so on. What are the big bags this time? AMZN? AAPL? MSFT again? GOOG, a repeat of YHOO? Best gues is the TBTF banks will lose all their equity this time, be recapped and resold. Bernanke will eat the **** sandwich this time, the one he is trying to serve us

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Bertdilbert
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Those are the Bernanke QE rockets trying to move economic "progress" in conjunction with other QE of "Advanced Economies". "Advanced Economies", is a term coined to hide unsustainable levels of debt that were part of the Ponzi GDP programs scattered about the world.

Prior to the term Advanced Economies, there was a term for them called "Highly Indebted Nations". The IMF would resolve these nations debts by having debt forgiveness ceremonies. The ceremony would consist of the revaluation of IMF gold held on the books selling the $35 an ounce gold to the nation and then having them sell the gold back at something closer to market price. Poof, debt resolved.

The IMF is currently investigating grains of sand as a possible solution verses the old method measured in grains of gold.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mannfm11
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Bert, there isn't 2 cents of difference between Bernanke and the current situation in the US and John Law in France in 1720. It all blew up, especially when the other power in the world, London, started doing the same thing. The overflow will spill over somewhere and it will drain, not add to the US game and take it down. It either flows to China, India and other emerging markets or they fall on their asses. One way or another it will fail. Then Cramer, who I am hearing blowing smoke, will be universally hated again

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Smacktle
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She's gonna blow! Impending doom at its finest.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Lastscottsman
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Gather round while I sing you of Wernher von Braun,
A man whose allegiance
Is ruled by expedience.
Call him a Nazi, he won't even frown.
"Ha, Nazi Schmazi," says Wernher von Braun.

Don't say that he's hypocritical,
Say rather that he's apolitical.

"Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down?
That's not my department," says Wernher von Braun.




Some have harsh words for this man of renown,
But some think our attitude
Should be one of gratitude,
Like the widows and cripples in old London town
Who owe their large pensions to Wernher von Braun.

You too may be a big hero,
Once you've learned to count backwards to zero.
"In German oder English I know how to count down,
Und I'm learning Chinese," says Wernher von Braun.

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O Lord God, let me not be disgraced in my old days. Or if Thou wilt not help me, do not help these scoundrels, but leave us to try it ourselves."
Fieldmarshall Leopold I Prince of Anhalt Dessau
Marvinmartian
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I worked on a NASA project from 1993 to 1999 where the payload failed shortly after launch.

It ain't fun. The payload was only supposed to operate for 4 months, but it went inoperable due to sunlight in the barrel of telescope after about 12 hours.

The underlying cause was a logic array(a programmable circuit breaker) that powered on into an indeterminate state. Another mission had discovered the defect and had failed to tell anyone about it.

The defect caused the sun shield to blow off prematurely.

It gave me a whole new appreciation for engineering risk.

I also went through something like a career change a few months later.
Nuke_engineer
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Quote:
It ain't fun.


I know. Don't feel bad. Failure is an integral part of good engineering. I was the one they called in from vacation when in 1984 on STS-41 the computers (Master Events Controller) failed. I had been head of QA on that APS code. I was a contractor, so I decided to leave and do less stressful work with commercial clients just after that incident.

My college roommate was the one who mistook English for Metric measurements and crashed a satellite right into Mars in 1999. He's still there.

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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.

Asimov
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Quote:
My college roommate was the one who mistook English for Metric measurements and put a satellite right into Mars in 1999.


I've ****ed up and felt like a **** before but god I'm glad I don't have to live that one down.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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and not a single **** was given...nobody knows which way this thing goes..which means your a damned if you do and damned if you don't..no expert has any clue about the short or medium or long term when its all corrupted...gentlemen prepare to defend yourselves.
Nuke_engineer
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Quote:
I've ****ed up and felt like a **** before but god I'm glad I don't have to live that one down.


Some folks can take it well, some can't. My second cousin's husband was the engineer who made the decision to use pure oxygen in the Apollo Command Module.

Years after the fire, he still wasn't well and went through divorce and drinking problems.

In my freshman year in college, Gus Grissom's son lived on the same dorm floor as I did. IMHO he was a basket case. I had a very tough time even being near him, knowing that one of my family had made the decision that had caused the death of his father and probably caused a lot of his issues.

Doctors can bury and forget their mistakes. Engineers have to live with them and many times see them over and over every day.

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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.
End_the_bubbles
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This isn't crashing for a while. Sorry bears.

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.

Kylafoon
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Zombie Portal Lookout
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I say the control room explodes w/o ever knowing
wtf happened to the ******ned rocket..

Choice #3

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"...But whenever we see things done wildly, but taken tamely, then the State is growing insane..." - Gilbert Keith Chesterton 1910

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008
Pooslinger
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Etb: I agree.
Curbyourrisk
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Farmingdale, NY
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According to Martin Armstrong...new highs before the collapse. Collapse comes in 2017.

I know lots of you aren't fans. I am a huge fan of his.

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Drkshapiro
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Southern CA
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Hello Ticker Forum, this is worth watching:

Apple Represents the WORST of American Business, Not the Best: Barlett & Stelle

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-tic....

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Bertdilbert
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Drkshapiro, you can't blame Apple for taking economic advantage of the situation. As for China, Japan pulled the same crap for years and we never did anything about that either. Japan targeted one sector after another for dominance way back. Our situation was over 30 years in the making.

The problem today is not going to be where the manufacturing is, but how much human effort is replaced by machines. Even the Fed carts money around using robots, humans are eliminated from the system. The economic problem for government is when a human job is replaced by a machine, the employer is only looking at total cost verses mechanical/computer replacement. The government loses an employee that was chipping taxes into the system. Income, SS and medicare taxes have now been displaced along with the employee.

Even the office has been drastically changed through technological advancement. One of my early jobs could have easily dropped office staff in half just on office technology. Those jobs are not coming back, just as the manufacturing jobs are not coming back either.

Karl gives one example of technology when he cites what someone can do when everything blows up. He makes a suggestion of someone with know how can buy a CNC machine on the cheap and spit out parts for a living. A CNC machine lathes and drills holes through multiple bits at a single station. All the operator has to do is feed 20ft sections of stock into the machine and parts spit out of the machine into a tray. One person can operate several CNC machines at once, dropping the labor per part to near zero. Prior to the CNC machine, there would be a work station for each task performed, and another employee would push around carts between all the work stations. If a part required 10 steps to make and the machine replaced all those separate steps, 10 jobs have been eliminated by one machine. If one operator is now able to run 4 CNC machines and just feed stock, 40 jobs have been eliminated.

We are not likely to see much more in the way of office savings on labor so those jobs are not at risk to further advancement in technology. How far off are we from needing things like truck and taxicab drivers? They even have a machine that builds over 300 burgers an hour with everything on it. What happens to government revenue when those jobs fall to technological advancement as well?

Even as cheep as Chinese labor is, Foxcon was talking about replacing workers with robots. At that point, there is little benefit to Chinese manufacture since robots work just as well here as they do in China. The bigger question is going to be who has robotics dominance.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.

Bertdilbert
Posts: 2694
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Quote:
According to Martin Armstrong...new highs before the collapse. Collapse comes in 2017.


For time frames as to how long they can pull this off here is my take. Between 1961 and 1968 we had the London Gold Pool which manipulated the price of gold to keep the dollar at $35 an ounce. Roughly they were able to keep this game going 7 years. I liken the Fed's ubermanipulation of interest rates to be in the same class of trying to save a dead animal. Therefore, I have penciled in 2014 as to when she is going to crack. If you take the closing of the gold window in 1971 as the event, I suppose that takes us out to 2017.

The difference is that the gold pool was done in secret whereas the Fed's actions are known to all, thus I pick the point where unsustainability is recognized as being 7 years... or less. The World economy is pretty much a dead animal looking for a burial spot.

What you are seeing in Europe as it falls apart reminds me of the death of a Dolphin fish (also known as Dorado or Mahi Mahi). As the fish lays on deck and dies, it is a beautiful visual treat, as waves of rainbow colors flash along the skin of the fish. While the end result is death, it is very entertaining to watch before it makes it way to the frying pan. It is certainly a better position to marvel as an observer than being the fish. Yet our time in the US will shortly come to be the fish on the deck, flopping and throwing off some wild colors.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Bsfootprint
Posts: 979
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Online
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Bertdilbert wrote..
Drkshapiro, you can't blame Apple for taking economic advantage of the situation.
I don't blame Apple. Doing what comes naturally.

I don't blame boy dogs for licking their own balls, nor do I enjoy watching them do it. smiley Unsavory behavior may be quite natural, but one doesn't have to take pleasure from observing it.

Quote:
The World economy is pretty much a dead animal looking for a burial spot.
Dead Economy Walking! Walkin' the mile, walkin' the mile...

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Non compos mentis

Rickl
Posts: 1238
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Silver
Pennsylvania
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OK, this may not be exactly on topic. I've seen the YouTube video in the original post. I recently found another video which features many of the same failures and successes, but with better quality.



However, this one doesn't have the famous Juno AM-16 failure. Here it is by itself:



Interestingly, this launch took place 10 years to the day before Apollo 11 launched to the Moon, atop a much larger and more complex rocket.

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Those of us who do remember history are condemned to repeat it anyway because those who don't are in the majority.
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