BBRY: Beware Thorston's Sandbagging
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-02-26 12:48
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
Ignore this thread
BBRY: Beware Thorston's Sandbagging
 

I'm going to wind up using this sign again, I suspect:

smiley

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BlackBerry Inc. said Tuesday that more than half of the customers purchasing the company's new Z10 smartphone in Canada are new to the BlackBerry platform. The disclosure was made during a conference for the company's enterprise customers and developers in San Francisco. During his keynote, BlackBerry VP Richard Piasentin also said more than 33% of customers buying the Z10 in the U.K. are also new to the company's smartphone platform.

Oh, they're not taking share back from Apple and Android eh?

Well, either these guys are lying or the claimed "channel check" numbers are a work of pure fiction and are likely understating sales figures -- maybe by a factor of three or more.

There is other evidence for this as well, including claimed enterprise sales figures coming from some channels. 

Where are these "channel check" folks getting their numbers? 

It's always interesting to listen to these sorts of prognostications, as there is never a way to fact-check the data being claimed, nor are the sources ever disclosed.  On the other hand we have a few people (including a couple of authors on Seeking Alpha) who claim to have actually visited various retailers and dealers in the UK, asking about sales trends and stock levels, and those reports appear to directly contradict the so-called "channel checks."

The facts will be developed when the firm reports, of course -- which is about a month from now.

Until then the whipsaw game of 5+% daily moves in the price of the stock is to be expected to continue, but the SEC damned well ought to be looking at these so-called "channel checks" to find out if they are about as "organic" and "transparent" as the former so-called "expert networks" -- or worse, if they're just plain old-fashioned works of fiction!

Of course that would require that the SEC do something other than watch porn in their offices, and that would be hard.  I note with some bemusement that just recently when the SEC "froze" a Goldman trading account over alleged "inside information" it was later claimed in the press that Goldman didn't know who the beneficial owner of the account actually was.

What happened to the law requiring that brokerages doing business in the US know who the beneficial owners of the accounts are, and why didn't that claim trigger an immediate indictment?

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User Info BBRY: Beware Thorston's Sandbagging in forum [Market-Ticker]
Highonlife
Posts: 89
Incept: 2009-02-20

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There was also that report from the UK phone retailer who said that the Z10 (the new BB10 phone) was outselling the SGIII and the Iphone5.
Someone did a calculation that if you all the stores in the UK and Canada just sell 1 phone a day till the end of march, they will beat the 300,000 sales quantity.
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1561
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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Which system is better at taking "selfies", pictures of weed and Thai food and uploading them to instagram?
Snowman
Posts: 1797
Incept: 2009-03-09
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avoiding yellow snow
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I bought one in London on Friday, Vodafone. Haven't had a BB since my company-issued 7250 (yes, that long ago). This new thingy is really nice. I like. Especially the browser, text and mail service, which is what I use a phone for, oh, and to make calls.
Musicandnature
Posts: 1948
Incept: 2007-12-05
Gold
NJ
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I suspect designers do not like you call it a "thingy." lol.

is it 'da bomb ? (yeh thats worn out too.) how 'bout Bentley of car phones ?

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Schwantz
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I like it too Snowman...it's the core features and functions that set it ahead, not the apps. Best keyboard, best UI, best multitasking, best one hand use, best browser, best mail and text hub, best security, best multi-profile, and last but not least, best phone.

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Genesis
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Does it include tethering?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wearedoomed
Posts: 3584
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slightly red state
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What Gen said. Tethering would be a big deal for me also.

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Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
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Schwantz
Posts: 5815
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Yes the settings options include tethering to one device by bluetooth or usb cable. It's also got wifi hub setting, nfc, and vpn settings, along with the regular...

Note the consumer devices are no longer using BIS data compression though, so you've got to make sure your plan is appropriate to your data uses...

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.

Genesis
Posts: 130673
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No Wifi tether? Or is Wifi Hub = tether?

I prefer bluetooth myself (MUCH better battery consumption profile!) but there will be people who disagree with that I suspect.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Schwantz
Posts: 5815
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I meant to say it's got an option for wifi hotspot in my above post...can connect one or multiple devices via wifi to your phone's LTE connection.

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
Genesis
Posts: 130673
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Cool.

That it can do Bluetooth is even better, IMHO -- most Android devices CANNOT, and when you're power-constrained (e.g. not in your car) this suddenly becomes important as an open WiFi hotspot chews battery at an utterly prodigious rate.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Schwantz
Posts: 5815
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Green
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The day my iphone recognized but refused to support (device not supported error) my PlayBook via bluetooth tether is the day I decided to ditch Apple for good. Everything else with the bluetooth tether option could connect to the Playbook just fine. I assume it was intentional on Apple's part.

The battery life of z10 is only slightly better than iphone5 or SG3 but if you go for the q10 it will be a LOT better. With z10 it's a good full day of use, but you still have to charge every night. They make a beautiful little portable spare battery / charger unit that can plug into the phone in series (for charging 2 batteries at once) and then if you ever run out you can hot swap the batteries or plug it in as a short term booster. Good for travel.

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
Yayankee
Posts: 25
Incept: 2009-06-09
Gold
New York
Online
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BGR:BlackBerry coup confirmed: iPhone, Android users make up half of Z10 sales in Canada, one-third in UK.

10:15 AM

BlackBerry (BBRY) is at the start of a very long haul as the struggling smartphone maker attempts to stage a comeback for the ages. Early sales of the company’s first next-generation BlackBerry 10 smartphone appeared strong, but a series of subsequent claims suggested limited supply was responsible for many of the BlackBerry Z10 stock-outs being reported in the United Kingdom and Canada. We now know Z10 sales to date are likely nothing to scoff at, however — BlackBerry’s Z10 is outselling the iPhone 5 and the Galaxy S III at a major Canadian retailer — and BGR has confirmed an even more important indicator of BlackBerry’s early success: Half of BlackBerry Z10 sales in Canada and one-third of UK sales have been made to users coming from other platforms.

CIBC analyst Todd Coupland reported last month that 50% of pre-registration for the Z10 in Canada came from users who did not already own BlackBerry devices. Interest doesn’t always translate to sales though, and it was unclear if BlackBerry would be able to get these iPhone and Android users to commit to the Z10 following its release.

BGR has now learned from multiple trusted sources that BlackBerry has indeed managed to pull off the coup it so desperately needed. Several high-level BlackBerry executives have confirmed internally that half of all BlackBerry Z10 sales in Canada have been made to new customers coming from other platforms.

What’s more, one-third of Z10 sales in the UK, another key market for BlackBerry, have been made to customers who did not already own BlackBerry smartphones.

BlackBerry declined to comment.

Early reviewers — including us here at BGR — worried that while BlackBerry 10 showed great promise and the Z10 was a terrific early effort, the new operating system didn’t offer any compelling differentiation that might draw users away from the iPhone and Android smartphones. If early performance in these two key markets is any indication, however, BlackBerry’s new platform may be a bigger draw than we expected.

http://bgr.com/2013/03/01/blackberry-z10....

ALSO.....from BGR

Chalk up another potentially impressive customer win for BlackBerry (BBRY). German site AreaMobile claims that German chancellor Angela Merkel and “other secret sources in ministries and federal agencies” will use the Z10 due to its impressive security features that put it a cut above rival devices from Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (005930). AreaMobile says that the Z10 will account for roughly half of the 10,000 secure devices issued to members of the German government, while Samsung’s Galaxy S II and Galaxy S III make up the other half. While reports of Z10 sales have been mixed overall, the consensus seems to be that BlackBerry’s first BlackBerry 10 device is off to a solid start and has succeeded in convincing some iOS and Android users to give the company a second look.

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