Philly Fed: Now You're F*ed
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-02-21 10:07
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Philly Fed: Now You're F*ed
 

That will be the end of that debate.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading -5.8 in January to -12.5 this month (see Chart). The demand for manufactured goods also showed slight declines this month: The new orders index declined from a reading of 04.3 in January to -7.8 in February. Despite negative readings for general activity and new orders, the shipments index showed improvement: The index remained positive and edged slightly higher to 2.4. The percentage of firms reporting increased shipments (25 percent) was slightly greater than the percentage reporting declines (22 percent).

That's not good.

There was a small indication of stability -- the number of employees basically was flat and the workweek only declined slightly.  But..... there is no unfilled order backlog, new orders are declining faster, inventories are drawn down materially below the flat-line and the price paid/received spread is still the wrong way.

These indices have been screaming recession incoming for the last six months.  That's the average lead time -- which means it's here and now, and there are no policy steps remaining available to counteract it as Congress, instead of rationalizing fiscal policy three years ago has instead chosen to "support" phantom and fraudulent "demand" with deficit spending.

Buckle up and keep in mind the average declines in the market during a serious (and severe) recession when there are no effective policy tools available to attempt to counteract it.

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User Info Philly Fed: Now You're F*ed in forum [Market-Ticker]
Medicdan
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Quote:
The index remained positive and edged slightly higher to 2.4.


But it says right there. lol

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Eli
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What we need to reverse this is for the government to borrow more money and get a massive jobs bill through congress. At the same time the fed needs to hand out free money to the banks so they can lend more money to the people.

It is bound to work.......right?

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Ktrosper
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ft collins co
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Gen wrote..
there is no unfilled order backlog, new orders are declining faster, inventories are drawn down...
lol, tell that to anyone trying to buy reloading supplies, guns and ammo.

This panic buying and frenzy MUST have softened what would otherwise have been an even nastier report..

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
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Genesis
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Well yes, if you're shopping for ammo, guns or reloading supplies than inventories are -999, new orders are +1000 and shipments are flatlined at zero as there's nothing to ship!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Jb350
Posts: 359
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Detroit metro
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"reading �]5.8 in January to �]12.5"

I really dont know what "�]" means, but I'm assuming its negative. Gotta love adobe.

Interestingly, 68% expect an increase of less than 3%, whereas 3 years ago only 56% expected less than 3%.
Trades50
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Quote:

What we need to reverse this is for the government to borrow more money and get a massive jobs bill through congress


Double and triple the TSA's at airports. (sarc)

Way too much credit expansion during the last 31 years caused this mess.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Krs
Posts: 688
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Silver
Colleyville, Texas
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Please get with the program - our talking point on all Jan to Feb #'s related to the North East is "You know it was the snow".

Carry on...

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Fog, smoke, and mirrors... perhaps those tin-foil-hat wearing digital dickweeds were on to something?
Tyler Durden on the Fed Feb 28, 2013
Mikek31
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Green
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Yeah, not only do they want to stop the sequester now, they'll probably want to tack on another $trillion for various bailout schemes on top of it. What a joke. Four years of bull**** in the making. More fraud to cover up the previous.

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Intentional manipulation of markets is usually thought of as a crime, not a benefit, and should lead to indictments, not praise. -Karl
Andysvw
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Boy a strike right after the sequester would suck for them big time.
Vitchilo
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So now it's either crank up the printing presses/do more stimulus to kick the can a few more months/years... or finally crash the whole thing...

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Mannfm11
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Ship the **** before they cancel the order.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Eli
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Yup, Vitchilo only problem with that it, is that is exactly what Ben and Oballsucker have been doing. And not only has it not worked doing more of it now only makes the problem worse. Not worse in an abstract sense, but worse in that purchasing power goes from terrible to people cannot afford to pay for food.
Even the Oballsucker leaches would get hurt, but they are all so criminally stupid they wouldn't realize it.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Lenguado
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Orlando, FL
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Eli,

Your last comment, struck a nerve with me - but not in a bad way.
Quote:
Even the Oballsucker leaches would get hurt, but they are all so criminally stupid they wouldn't realize it.

Ya'll know about those studies where they determined that people will cause themselves a bit of pain - even if they don't know it, just to see other people undergo a LOT of pain?
(As in, yeah, tax me a little more, but tax THEM over there a LOT more, because they are EVIL RICH people - even though it will crash the economy...)

Well, I used to think that was a bunch of bunk.

But these days - not so much.

At this point, to Eli's comment, I say, 'Bring it On!'

I want to see gas at $8 - $10/gal. Not 'to protect the environment' or to 'get us off of evil oil' (because it won't). But to make those evil Oballsucker leaches pay through the nose.

I want to see food so high, that the Oballsucker leaches are quite literally, 'starving in the streets' and rioting, and burning their own "projects" down.

I want to see these Oballsucker leaches having to eat their iPhones and the rims off their cars (yeah, those rims that cost them more than the car) because they are so hungry. Or selling their children to the local crack dealer, so they can go to Uncle Obammys food shack to buy a microwave tv dinner and some cheese puffs.

Yeah, I'll be feeling some pain, but not as much as them. Even if I lose my job, I'm good for a couple years at this point.

I WANT them to feel massive pain - as in Zombie Apocalypse pain!

As the bumber sticker on my car and motorcycle says, "The hardest part about a zombie apocalypse will be pretending I'm not excited."
inline

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression
Mikek31
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Chicago
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Len,

You're probably gonna get some push-back from that comment, but a lot of us feel the same way. Especially folks like me who don't have any assets and think we've got nothing to lose. Problem is, folks like me stand a good chance of "starving in the streets" as well, and I'm not an Obama ballsucker by any stretch of the imagination. So I'm not looking forward to this, as much as I'd like to see other folks who "have it good" get hit by the almighty clue-by-four.

You have to understand that yes, folks will lose a lot, but they're starting from a higher level than you or I are. They can absolutely make our lives miserable just as well, because they will be the only ones left with any resources. I mean, unless you're a hermit farmer, or someone who can otherwise completely rely on yourself and the land alone, you're gonna have to work for these folks in order to eat, and most of them (having been squeezed themselves and having no idea what it's like to be poor) will treat you like complete ****. I mean, this has already been happening in the labor markets to some extent, and it'll only get worse.

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Intentional manipulation of markets is usually thought of as a crime, not a benefit, and should lead to indictments, not praise. -Karl
Mannfm11
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Seems like the Bernanke bulls are cheering the coming of the starving of the lower class. I don't know where these companies are going to get their revenue if the world is saturated in debt, unless they plan to take the losses on the debt? I gues it is like the $2000 a year Chinese peasant or the $8000 a year Chinese manufacturing worker standing in line to get the next iPhone.

And, we have Crapper on his after market show talkng like housing is in the early innings. The last game is not over, as sales are still near record lows. The expansion/contraction indexes are nonsense. Business falls 75% for 4 years then expands, the number comes in at 51. It could be in expansion for years before it gets to the 50% level, which would be a double from the bottom, but half the peak. This is how a boom/bust works. They call a move from 25% of peak to 26% of peak a recovery.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Eli
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Len I hear what you are saying, a zombie Apocalypse is the best thing we can hope for.

If gas goes to 8 bucks the Obama zombies will not be able to leave their government provided free slums. Hopefully that chaos will be enough to keep the pigs off law abiding citizens. All the free **** has to end, nothing is ever free.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Lenguado
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Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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Mike,

First, folks like you were not even remotely the object of my ire in the above post.

Second, I think you really mis-interpreted the example I gave as what my point was. The object of my ire is NOT the wealthy 'with all the resources' - but all those useless societal leaches who put him in office. Even if they think they are productively employed and are not useless. Sorry, but the Marxist / Fascist folks who put him in office ARE useless to humanity. (Again, you are NOT part of that - as best I can tell. Obviously, you are here trying to improve yourself.)

By the way, all those folks who you imply have all those magical resources, don't have really have them - all they have is the illusion of power and teh illusion of holding the resources. It's the regular folks like you and me, who have ALL the resources. Think any of those a-wholes could change a set of spark plugs - much less successfully accomplish a trannie swap? Or get oil processed from raw material into usable diesel / gas? Or fire a shotgun - and actually hit anything?

Give me a break. All they do is TELL SOMEONE ELSE to do all that 'dirty work'. That's not work for the intelligencia - thats for the Damn Masses.

So, apologies for confusion, but my rant wasn't aimed at you - or the rich/wealthy string pullers.

It was aimed at all thos Utopian Hopefulls who pulled the lever for the current master. I am just saying that at this point, I am willing to absorb a fair amount of personal pain financially and socially, so that they personally receive THE FULL MEASURE OF WHAT THEY DESERVE for their votes. That's all.


----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression
Mikek31
Posts: 4359
Incept: 2009-05-04
Green
Chicago
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No prob, Len. I know you weren't aiming it at me, just that we might have differences of opinion on the outcomes here. Heck, it might be a boon for us for all I know.

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Intentional manipulation of markets is usually thought of as a crime, not a benefit, and should lead to indictments, not praise. -Karl
Raxon
Posts: 69
Incept: 2011-08-23

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Lenguado, for what it is worth, I'm with you. I think those of us who actually work for a living can only take so much of the leeches sucking from us before we start wishing them the absolute worse kind of hurt that the world can dish out.

Let's just hope that is indeed how it plays out and not the other way around. But as Karl has said numerous times, we can exist (and would thrive) without them, but they cannot exist at all without us.
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