PPI: If You Believe This Tripe.....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-02-20 09:29
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
PPI: If You Believe This Tripe.....
 

The Bureau of Lies and Scams says:

The Producer Price Index for finished goods advanced 0.2 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods declined 0.3 percent in December and 0.4 percent in November. At the earlier stages of processing, the index for intermediate goods was unchanged in January, and crude goods prices increased 0.8 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the finished goods index advanced 1.4 percent for the 12 months ended January 2013. (See table A.)

Is there supposed to be something in there that I believe?  Specifically, am I supposed to believe that energy prices were down 0.4% on finished goods in January?

Really?

I'm supposed to believe finished energy prices were down when I see these charts?  Green is red, red is red sort of stuff?

I dunno.  Foods are supposedly down on intermediate and crude goods too.

If you believe these numbers there is neither large inflationary or deflationary pressure anywhere in the producer pipeline.

If.

There are some shockers in the data tables.  Like, for instance, an 18.1% annual increase in the cost of crude foods.  Or a 19.3% change in the cost of feeds (which makes sense, given the cost of food.)  And the 7% change in the cost of crude fuels.

In the subindices the monster movers were vegetables, up 27% and a near-11% increase for eggs.  Other standouts were chickens (up 9.2%) and pharmaceuticals (+6.3%).  Computers collapse by 10% in price, and so did coffee -- it's good to be a geek who likes Joe.

But woe be to you if you need lumber or wallboard., or for that matter, wheat, corn or (unprocessed) chickens, or for that matter soybeans.  Scrap steel prices, on the other hand, collapsed.  (all on an annualized basis, thus you can safely ignore the seasonal lie machine.)

In short, nothing to see here, move along, the BLS is working its usual magic.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Comments.......
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User Info PPI: If You Believe This Tripe..... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Magus
Posts: 1964
Incept: 2008-05-04
Gold
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Coffee costs are actually down far more than 10% in the last year (at least spot has been) and is pretty close to what it was before it went on a rampage in increases a couple of years ago. A lot of other stuff is higher as you said though.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Ptoemmes
Posts: 143
Incept: 2009-04-13

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I'm no BLS - or any other stat factory - apologists, but it occurs to me over and over that maybe these legacy statistical models just plain don't work in the new centrally managed normal.

Also would not be the first time a producer believed their own nonsense (captain of the Titanic comes to mind).

Of course it could be purposeful, too, I suppose.

But no, in the final analysis I do not believe whatever the root cause of the nonsense. After all, I have to buy (less) stuff in the real economy.

Pete



Tylerd
Posts: 41
Incept: 2008-05-16
Green
Belton, TX
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Horses can transport themselves...
Digitlman
Posts: 328
Incept: 2011-03-04

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yeah what is the PPI on horse meat these days?

smiley

Reason: speeling
Krs
Posts: 685
Incept: 2009-05-07
Silver
Colleyville, Texas
Online
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This is not magic, this is math and science as the BLS rolls out its new Seasonally Adjusted Seasonal Adjustments, Adjustments Program.

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Fog, smoke, and mirrors... perhaps those tin-foil-hat wearing digital dickweeds were on to something?
Tyler Durden on the Fed – Feb 28, 2013
Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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No joke on the fresh food prices - $7 for a pint of raspberries ?!?! , $4/lb green peppers, $6 for a 3-pak of organic romaine, $7 for a small box of clementines ? smiley I came out of the grocery store 2 days ago with 3 small sacks and $72 of product. smiley

It may be more cost effective for me to minimally heat my greenhouse next winter to provide me with lettuces, spinach and radishes. I will absolutely be dehydrating more fruit this year too.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Otiswild
Posts: 5613
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
Inside you, the force is!
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Quote:
yeah what is the PPI on horse meat these days?


"Hedonic" adjustment FTW...
Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Relative to oil, gasoline has gone up significantly. I recall the balance of trade report bragging that the US was exporting energy. Evidently, it was all gasoline. Unless they are getting paid a hell of a lot, those that are required to drive a lot, like the cable guy that rents from me are getting this twisted up their asses. My gas us up about $50 a month in just a few weeks.

I don't know how much gasoline is a producer price. It is clearly a price received. Maybe Wall Street made all the money on gasoline and the producers sold out cheap. Oil hasn't moved a whole lot. There are going to be some bag holders on this mess. The world economy isn't looking good. Once all this borrowed money turns upside down in the markets, the effects of QE are going to be diminished and we are going to see the real world. Looks like 2 alternatives. Either crash soon or the governments around the world go broke trying to support asset prices.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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Tesla,
Quote:
No joke on the fresh food prices - $7 for a pint of raspberries ?!?! , $4/lb green peppers, $6 for a 3-pak of organic romaine, $7 for a small box of clementines ? I came out of the grocery store 2 days ago with 3 small sacks and $72 of product.

Two inputs here on the prices.

1) Price of fuel for plowing, planting, harvesting, and transporting to market. Fuel prices going up. Just getting ahead of the curve for fuel prices.

2) Anticipated labor rates skyrocketing with millions of illegal criminal aliens being granted by our King & Ruler 'legal' status, AND having to be paid $9/hour, with FULL benefits & medical. Also, just getting ahead of the curve.

/partial-sarc

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
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