Boeing 787 Batteries: Unsafe At Any Altitude?
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Posted 2013-02-08 08:15
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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Boeing 787 Batteries: Unsafe At Any Altitude?
 

In the no, really? file today we have this:

Short-circuits inside a battery triggered a fire aboard a parked Boeing Co. Dreamliner last month, said U.S. investigators, who also found the safety approval process for the power devices was flawed and "must be reconsidered" before the jets return to passenger service.

No kidding? smiley

This is what I said originally:

The fact that overcharging is not implicated in at least one of these incidents leads to some uncomfortable places, with the most-serious being a potential problem with the assembly of the battery itself (that is, an internal flaw that produced a short circuit inside the case.)  This has occurred with laptop and similar batteries in the past and is extremely dangerous because the usual protective circuits are of course not effective.  If this is proved to be the case here then Boeing's supplier of that battery likely has a major problem with future orders, but more importantly Boeing may have an unsolveable problem with the use of these batteries, because it is essentially impossible to insure that no defects in the battery pack's manufacturing will ever occur.

And now it appears that's exactly what happened.

The next question is how the battery design was approved in the first place.  That trail leads to some uncomfortable places as well.  See, Boeing (like all other makers of such things) is generally permitted to "self-certify" a lot of safety-critical design parameters, performing their own alleged testing and submitting their claims to the government.

These entire purpose of using lithium battery chemistry in the first place is to gain energy density -- that is, the amount of power that can be stored for a given mass and size. 

But isolation of the cells via containers and physical space to prevent propagation of a failure between cells reduces that energy density!  Therefore you have a dance of sorts; your goal is maximum energy density or you'd use a chemistry that didn't have the same sort of risks that these cells do.  Yet to provide physical isolation you need both space and mass, which goes directly against your "prime directive" in using these things in the first place.

Boeing has been cleared to start closely-monitored test flights to try to identify exactly why these failures are happening.  But there are a lot of people who still seem to think that there's an answer that can be found with the existing design and without any sort of material modification.

My problem with this process is that in a car or other land-based conveyance you can get out and run away if there's a fire, and the risk of such an event is directly related to the energy density in the device and how fast it can be delivered.  The entire point of using these batteries is to pack a lot of energy that can be delivered quickly (to start the APU, for example) in a small space and mass

While the risk of one of these planes being downed by a battery failure is relatively small, the fact remains that lithium battery fires are hellishly difficult to put out, and since this is considered a critical component that cannot fail in flight such a failure, even if you CAN prevent a fire, is considered unacceptable. 

So how do we get from where we are now to where we need to be given the existing design?

I'm skeptical that you can, and given the record of our government when it comes to utterly outrageous and unsupportable acts that benefit themselves and their "friends" and screw or worse -- kill citizens -- I am by no means comforted by this alleged "review process" nor am I willing to accept the FAA's alleged "all clear" on this issue, if and when it comes, without strict proof.

It's your ass in the seat when you fly but I'm not going to volunteer for mine being BBQ'd.

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User Info Boeing 787 Batteries: Unsafe At Any Altitude? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Digitlman
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Aloha Air needs to buy these so they can have in-flight pig roasts. What a way to say "Welcome to Hawaii"!
Uwe
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A fire on board the aircraft is darn near a pilot's worst nightmare. This is doubly true when the aircraft is used for long-haul over-water routes, where it's often several hours away from anywhere it could make an emergency landing.

-Uwe-

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Heffalump
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How much does this bloody thing weigh?

Because airlines are not (yet?) charging passengers by their weight, it's possible to get quite large variation just because having smaller or bigger people on board. So, if the weight savings from higher energy density are less than a couple hundred kilograms, why bother at all?

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Bagbalm
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If airlines and customers refuse to trust these planes what is the impact of Boeing having a serious dud on the overall economy?
Seems to me aircraft orders were the key to several recent reports being less than disasters.

Plainly - is this a potential black swan event?

Reason: add material
Deckchairs
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Quote:
Unsafe at any altitude


But certainly safer on the tarmac!!

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Digitlman
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Bag: Boeing went from 183 orders in Dec to just 2 in Jan.

That's gonna hurt real quick.
Crzymorse
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Moral to the story is never use the word "dream" when launching a new airplane class.
Trades50
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Quote:

Aloha Air needs to buy these so they can have in-flight pig roasts.


A Boeing 737 (Aloha flight 243) turned convertible in Hawaii.

http://www.aloha.net/~icarus/

and it still flew. Wonder how an older 787 would come out with that fatigue.


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Azengrcat
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Boy if the FAA "winked winked" Boeing through the battery qual, I wonder what the composite testing was like?
Pattonme
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And the whole selling point of this albatros was beating the drum over a couple percent in efficiency gains. WTF yo! The cheaped out on the alternators such that the output is completely all over the map voltage/amp-wise to save a few pounds. they no longer bleed 3% of turbine output to power cabin/controls which was the entire vaunted 3% increase in efficiency. But doing so they had to have a battery pack and Pb/Acid took up too much space/weight.

The whole thing is a politically correct boondoggle with parts made by a zillion sub-contractors of questionable quality from all over the world which has led to all kinds of problems just in assembly clearances.
Thetemplateblog
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I have used this batteries in RC planes.

They are NASTY when they get damaged. A lot of people I know store them outside in the grill with a plastic bag of sand sitting over the top of them. Sometimes you can't even tell they are damaged until they start swell and catch fire.

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Mdm
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The FAA will go through the motions on this and eventually give it the all clear. It is going to take people dying from one of these things catching fire and crashing for any real fix to be required.
Digitlman
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My RC plane uses LiPo - Lithium Polymer....which are supposed to be even more volatile.
Thetemplateblog
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@Digitlman - Your right, thanks for the correction.

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If it moves and it shouldn't, use duct tape.
If it doesn't move and it should, use WD40.
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Genesis
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TheTemplate: Hell, I have one of these in my RAID controller.

Well, guess what -- during my regular maintenance I was inspecting the machine and the battery was started to bulge out!

Needless to say that got disconnected and replaced PRONTO.

I could have very easily had a fire in my server, but that battery was small and while the fire would have probably destroyed the server, I doubt it would have done anything more than that, simply because there isn't enough material there to propagate and what's in the case won't burn (for the most part.)

But in a composite plane THE COMPOSITES THEMSELVES WILL BURN. If you've ever seen a fiberglass boat go up you know exactly what I'm talking about -- it's damned near impossible to put that **** out once it gets lit too.

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Aquapura
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I'm no expert on battery technology but I think it's a bit premature to make predictions of this aircraft being a flop.

How many people died in DC-10's in the 1970's? There were several major accidents which killed 100's and that aircraft went on to success. Boeing's last completely new airframe, the 777, is arguably one of the safest planes ever. I have complete confidence the issues will be resolved and the 787 will live a long life as a very safe aircraft.

As for carbon fiber, Airbus has been using this from the begining and many parts of modern aircraft are already carbon fiber. Boeing just took the next step in evolution and made the entire hull carbon fiber. With modern CAFE rules for light vehicles I would wager more and more of our cars will be carbon fiber.

What scares me more than the aeronautical engineering of planes is pilot error. That puts down more planes than engineering flaws. Some notable recent incidents were the Air France flight that went into the Atlantic and the Colgon Air flight in Buffalo. Both where the pilot pulled up on the yolke/joystick instead of pushing forward to recover from a stall. That's piloting 101 and anyone with Microsoft Flight Simulator should know.
Jpg
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heffalump wrote..
if the weight savings from higher energy density are less than a couple hundred kilograms, why bother at all?
As a rule of thumb, on longer flights an extra kilogram of weight on the airplane will cause it to burn an additional kilogram of fuel. 100 kilograms of weight, 100 kilograms of fuel.

At $1 per kilogram for fuel on every flight over the life of the airplane, there's a powerful incentive to save weight.

I even remember one airline a few years ago that was trying to encourage passengers to take a leak before getting on the plane, to save weight.
Cabbage_the_cat
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Valuejet 529 comes immediately to mind.
Otiswild
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Quote:
I could have very easily had a fire in my server, but that battery was small and while the fire would have probably destroyed the server, I doubt it would have done anything more than that, simply because there isn't enough material there to propagate and what's in the case won't burn (for the most part.)


You'd have had legitimate need to halt -n!

(I had a Macbook battery that swelled up, Apple replaced it for free out of warranty when I brought it by an Apple store. Guess they didn't want to risk a(nother) exploding battery story!)
Aabikrman
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Here's a link to the NTSB press release of yesterday 07Feb2013. I haven't read the WSJ article that is cited but the NTSB also says:

Chairman Hersman said that potential causes of the initiating short circuit currently being evaluated include battery charging, the design and construction of the battery, and the possibility of defects introduced during the manufacturing process.

My contacts are telling me that a redesign of the battery compartment is also likely to be made for safety reasons.
Aabikrman
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Heres the link,,,,,sorry for my "fat finger" mistake. Meant to hit the preview button !

http://www.ntsb.gov/news/2013/130207.htm....

Lenguado
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Quote:
A fire on board the aircraft is darn near a pilot's worst nightmare. This is doubly true when the aircraft is used for long-haul over-water routes, where it's often several hours away from anywhere it could make an emergency landing.

AND, it's made of PLASTIC. . .

FWIW

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Sunkeye
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Yeah this battery glitch is unnerving stuff.
But Boeing is one of the greatest organizations in the history of the world.
And the sentence above is not an exaggeration in any way. At all.

The engineers at BA will solve this of that I have no doubt.
And the 787 will go on to be a major part of future commercial aviation.

If you've ever taken the tour of the assembly plant up in Everett I bet
you'd strongly hold the same opinion. Looking down at the Dreamliners from the tour gallery mezzanine
as Boeing personnel are bringing them to whole is one of the more memorable sights
I've ever seen. I highly recommend the experience if you're ever in Seattle.

For sure there were pressures to get 787s delivered and out on the line,
but the plane is an extremely impressive technolgical advancement. And after the battery problem
gets fixed - and it will - I wouldn't hesitate
a second to step aboard. I look forward to flying in it.

Muscleknight
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Every time I see a 787 picture I think of the Comet. Didn't several of those crash right after entry into service?

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