How Blackberry Can Win (Big) In The Mobile World
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-02-06 11:39
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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How Blackberry Can Win (Big) In The Mobile World
 

You've all heard by now that Blackberry (formerly "RIMM") has announced two new phones (the Z10 and Q10), with the first shipping in Canada and Britain first, then here in the United States with the Q10 (with keyboard) to follow.

You've also, if you read my material, know that I've been very bullish on the prospects for QNX, the operating system that Blackberry acquired a few years ago, to drive adoption predicated on its "microkernel" architecture.

But what you've probably not considered is exactly why that architecture could be levered to produce a device and environment that nobody else can copy or compete with in the present time.

And see, that's the deal, really.

Let's think about the "iTunes" and "Android" ecosystems.  They're basically the same thing -- copies of one another.  That is, the model is that you have a bunch of devices that use the Internet as a data pipe, and you load applications ("apps") from the "store" which drives revenue to the various parties.

Ok, that's nice.  But it's not innovative, and the reason it's not is that the architecture of the devices isn't innovative, much as Windows Mobile isn't innovative.

All three are basically an attempt to take a desktop (or server) architecture and cram it into a phone.  You have services like "Dropbox" that make file access (mostly) transparent, but that's about the extent of it.  This, to a large degree, is due to the architecture of the operating system -- a monolithic thing that uses device drivers to talk to physical hardware -- how we've always thought of computers and their peripherals since the dawn of the mainframe.

QNX is different.

It's different because there is no such thing, per-se, as a "device driver."  Rather, it has a microkernel that handles just the essential elements of task scheduling, memory allocation and similar.

Everything else is a user-land process.

That probably went over your head.

But it shouldn't have.

I said everything else is a user-land process.

Consider the camera in your cellphone.  On Android (and iOS) there's a device driver that talks to it.  I know how it works because I've ported Android on the Motorola Triumph, and had to fight with that piece of crap.  The driver runs in the kernel space; it's part of the hardware.

Now consider a userland camera that is distinct from the kernel.

Why does it have to be in your phone? 

Suddenly -- it doesn't!

So now let's say you and a friend are both in a bar. You want to take a picture with his camera!

With Android or iOS, this is very difficult to do.  You'd have to have an app that is specifically designed to do that sort of thing, and it would have to know all about the various cameras in various devices.

Not with QNX.  With QNX there is no difference between your camera and his camera, except for where it physically is located. 

Now sure, there's a security requirement here -- after all, that's his camera, not yours.  So he'd be asked if it's ok for you to use it.  But assuming he grants you permission, his camera becomes part of your device for the period of time both you and he want it to.

This isn't limited to cameras.

It applies to your screen -- and his.  It applies to storage, to executing programs, to literally anything.

More importantly, it applies to anywhere, not just anything.

This is something that Blackberry can do -- but nobody else can, as nobody else has QNX.

The implications here go far beyond "cloud drive" and similar storage schemes as we've seen in the past.  The potential is literally limitless.

Consider this:

Your car may run QNX internally.  If it has a cellular, bluetooth or wifi module in it, you can talk to it as if it was a part of the phone.

So you can sit in your house and say "car on", and -- the car starts.  You can also do something like say "car only runs if it can find me", and your car now won't start or run if someone moves it beyond its communication range of your handset.

If the car has a GPS in it (and they all pretty much do) you can ask where it is.

And all of this is easily-secured, since a communications pipe is just another resource, and that resource can be anywhere and of any sort.  So if you'd like to use AES-encrypted (or SSL-encrypted) transport, knock yourself out.

Remember that all these devices already have four means of communications in them -- cellular, a Wifi device, a bluetooth device and a nearfield device.  Again, all are transparent at the application level, unlike what we have now where I have to have a specific driver and data path set up for them.

Therefore I can communicate over Wifi, over the cellular network, over bluetooth or over nearfield.  Which I choose has much to do with (1) how much power budget I desire to use and (2) how close I am to the desired resource.  Seamless handoff becomes easy, since there's nothing special about one over the other.

Anything that can be used on one device in one place can be used on any other, as if were local, constrained only by the size of the pipe between the two physical points.

Suddenly, the model of "apps" is turned on its ear.  Any resource on any QNX-operated device can theoretically become available to any other QNX-operated device -- seamlessly.

Now its entirely possible that Blackberry doesn't understand all of this in their offices, and just sees QNX as another kernel with a power-management budget advantage.

But I rather doubt it, as this is something I understood about QNX when I looked at it in the early 1990s and advocated for it to be adopted for a project where exactly this sort of virtualization would have made certain things we were doing that were hard very easy.

I lost that fight, incidentally; the company didn't like the per-unit license cost and decided to roll their own instead.

But I bet Blackberry won't make the mistake of ignoring this capability, and if they don't they have a clean shot at changing forever how we think of and use that little brick in our pocket.

Disclosure: I am active in this name, cashed front-month CALLs yesterday, and both have and may initiate or dispose of other positions without notice.

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User Info How Blackberry Can Win (Big) In The Mobile World in forum [Market-Ticker]
Digitlman
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"his camera becomes part of your device for the period of time both you and he want it to."

I'm not following. Are you saying that his stand-alone camera can be paired (via BT I assume) to save pics directly to your QNX-based phone?
Genesis
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No, I'm saying devices are inherently abstracted on QNX, making literally anything on his device that he wants you to have access to appear as if it was on your device, and vice-versa.

This is inherent to how QNX works.

As long as there is a communications method you both have access to and you can "see" each other, this works. It doesn't have to be bluetooth -- he could be 5,000 miles away and you could do the same thing over a cell connection!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Mannfm11
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But Karl, it doesn't have an apple on the back. LOL

This all went by me, but I am now wondering if it will draw my bath water?

I will give this to you. You have been right on all these falling knives so far. As far as RIMM goes, they should hire you as a consultant to tell their engineers what they should design. I think their USA offices are close by here. I might be able to find some of the top guys and put in a good word for you. I believe I once tried to send a link to one of your tickers to them. Most of what you write is as vague as dirty water to me, but I know it is in your area of expertise.

In the meantime, I am wondering where all the AAPL nuts were when they were peddling DELL, INTC, MSFT and others to us? I think they were peddling DELL, INTC, MSFT and others to us.

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Digitlman
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So does the QNX kernel need to be compiled with the information to talk to these all these different devices?

If not - then wow...quite the thing!
Aztrader
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Short puts on BBRY. Doing the weekly's..........
Greendisease
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My first thought goes to security.

If someone has a QNX device, how easy would it be for them to hack and gain control over your QNX device? What would be the bare minimum of info they'd need? MAC/IP address?

Are SSL/AES robust enough to protect broadband communication channels in your opinion? One of my main concerns with using smart phones is others' ability to easily "sniff" what I'm doing.
Genesis
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Mann, consider that today your device in your pocket is limited by what fits in the device. We have things like "Dropbox" to try to get around that.

Ok, now at my house I have a ****ing HUGE media and data server. I CAN get to things on it from my phone, but it's a pain in the ass.

With QNX it doesn't have to be. That big data store "over there" may as well be on my device, if I want it to be, even though it's not.

The car is an excellent example. Your car may have QNX running the engine, comfort (A/C, windows, etc) and similar. It becomes a trivial thing to point at the car on your device and say "close the windows"

I can talk to my house right now and tell it to turn the hottub on. But need an app for that. With QNX my house IS IN MY PHONE if I want it to be; the devices there are ABSTRACTED and so long as there's a communications path present they act as if they were local, should both ends' agree.

Contemplate a device that can access and use any resource on any other device without knowing anything special about it. A camera is just a source of image data. A data storage device streams bytes or blocks. A printer is a sink of image data. An audio output device can be anywhere -- on your phone, on the next guy's over, etc. Same for a screen, a microphone, or whatever.

We don't think of devices this way, but QNX always has. It's a result of the microkernel view of design, something that's unique.

It also means that if one of those devices crashes or gets disconnected it doesn't **** anything else up. The device can be restarted, re-connected to or simply abandoned without blowing up the operating system. If there's another source of the same thing (e.g. two copies of a file on two different storage paradigms) one can be substituted for the other.

It's an entirely different way of thinking about how a computer works and how the pieces go together. Today, I have to worry about all this to make things work. If I want console access to my server I need to do special things with IPMI/KVM to accomplish it. For remote disk access to my home network I have to play with things like SAMBA and a VPN. I can't easily get to the webcam on my desktop machine from 5,000 miles away, because it's driven by a device driver on that computer.

All this changes with the QNX model.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Digitlman
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I think the part I am missing is that both devices (i.e. the phone and the stand-alone camera) need to be running QNX for this to work as seamlessly as you say.

The concept seems to be like DirectX for Windows....no more needing to write device-specific drivers or software....DirectX is the middleware?
Ckaminski
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For those that don't quite get Karl's POV, but understand a bit of Unix or commandline trickery, imagine something like this:

echo on > /net/karls-house/bedroom-lights
echo 103 > /net/karls-house/hottub

and the magic to talk to karl's smart-switch in his house happens all automagically in the background.

cat /net/karls-house -> dumps a list of all the devices and settings in karls house that you're authorized to see.

A very naive, but very possible thing with custom user-land programs. Something you *CAN* do with Linux and Windows, but those are very bloated environments - QNX is not.
Genesis
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That's correct, both devices must be running QNX.

But what this means is that the more Blackberry devices RIMM sells, the bigger the world gets. Never mind the places that QNX already is, such as in cars.

If they exploit this the world changes.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tdray
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Thanks Karl. I thought I was over my gadget jonesing phase. Great explanations. You clearly illustrated the inferiority of iStuff and Android. By the way, could this also be done on a Playbook? I'm sure it could.
Genesis
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CK what you have to understand is that under Unixland and Windows worldviews you have to write those userland programs and it's a bitch, because there is no consistent abstraction model in the system itself.

QNX is different in this regard; all EXISTING devices are of this model. Therefore, nothing has to be done to do this with a "thing" that happens to be somewhere else!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Erbo
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Digitlman: I wouldn't think so, as, from the point of view of the kernel, it's all IPC; it just needs to schlep the messages from one process to another in an efficient manner. Of course, your "app" process would need to speak the protocol that your "device" process understands over that IPC connection, but that's probably abstracted away in the system libraries, so, from the point of view of an app developer, you just call an API, which formats the message, sends it, and waits for a reply.

Microkernels are nothing new; even Windows NT started out as a hybrid-microkernel architecture. The traditional bugaboo here has been performance, which is why Windows 7 and 8 aren't very "micro" kernel anymore. :) One of the more famous flame wars over architecture, for instance, was between Andrew Tanenbaum, the author of Minix, which uses a microkernel architecture, and Linus Torvalds, the author of Linux, which favored the traditional monolithic-kernel approach (though there are nuances to that). Linux is, of course, the kernel behind Android.

Now, if the QNX devs have managed to optimize their IPC so that it's efficient enough to not cause a serious performance hit, then their microkernel-based approach suddenly becomes less of a problem, and other advantages, such as security and stability, are gained. Plus, how much does raw "performance" matter on a phone? If anything, you'd want to optimize for longer battery life over sheer CPU performance in that environment.

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"There is a ready solution for anyone on the public payroll who feels that he is not paid enough: He can resign and work for a living. This applies with equal force to Congressmen, Welfare 'clients,' school teachers, generals, garbage collectors, and judges." - Ira Johnson
Throxxofvron
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Broad adoption of QNX will either liberate and expand the dimensions of or totally decimate the whole 'Cloud' strategy.

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Genesis
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It will destroy the existing cloud model -- this is disruptive technology.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Ckaminski
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Linux being a monolithic kernel is one of the reasons they get away with not having a stable driver ABI and why hardware support on Linux is so horrible, even in 2013.

NT is still a microkernel where it counts - process/memory/IO. WIN32 is just a subsystem that runs on top of the NT microkernel.
Ckaminski
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All we need is ipv6 and we can go back to the peer2peer nature of the internet, and I can have my "Own Cloud" :-)

iPad/iPhone/Xoom with OpenVPN + dd-wrt and I'm pretty much there, personally.
Genesis
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Ah bull****.

NT can still be bluescreened by devices other than RAM and Processor, and is.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tz
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Can is not will. Ford has a devkit for sync but you have to have your app approved. Blackberry might lock down their platform tighter than iOS. With all the iOS and android devices, don't you think there would be an API (well, I can talk via bluetooth to my car on Android because it isn't locked down).

Motorola sells some unlocked (rootable without jailbreak) android phones, but doing so violates the warranty.

Blackberry would be more interesting even it it didn't use QNX if I could run code I write on it without any barrier.

But it also needs to develop an ecosystem. If I don't have the apps I use the most (pitch-correct speeded podcast, streaming radio, office and astronomy apps), all the rest won't matter.

You can also port the QNX driver API so it could be emulated - they are bytes going across a pipe. Like http, ftp, or any other protocol. I don't need a blackberry to spoof the bytestream. But if QNX in the other devices - especially cars - safety and other regs and litigation - is locked, nothing can be done. I have a crap radio I would like to reprogram, but can't.

Yet if it is open enough, it might be able to run android apps via emulation (if/when needed).

But most likely, it will be locked as tight as iOS if not tighter. This is not my wish, only my expectation. Never underestimate the foolishness of large corporations. See Elop of Nokia.

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"I am become debt, destroyer of worlds"
Pika-steph
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Karl wrote..
You can also do something like say "car only runs if it can find me"...
Why is this conjuring up images of Killdozer for me? smiley

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Erbo
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Ckaminski: Win32 started out (back in Windows NT 3.1 days) as a subsystem on top of the microkernel, but more of that code actually moved "into" the kernel because it wasn't performing as well as Microsoft wanted. Most of this code is in a kernel "device driver" called win32k.sys.

Many Linux kernel devs regard the "no stable driver ABI" property as a feature, not a bug, as it encourages device drivers to stay as part of the kernel source (and therefore under the GPL) as opposed to potentially being proprietary code. This doesn't stop companies like nVidia from shipping proprietary drivers for Linux, but it does discourage the practice.

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"There is a ready solution for anyone on the public payroll who feels that he is not paid enough: He can resign and work for a living. This applies with equal force to Congressmen, Welfare 'clients,' school teachers, generals, garbage collectors, and judges." - Ira Johnson
Genesis
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Quote:
With all the iOS and android devices, don't you think there would be an API (well, I can talk via bluetooth to my car on Android because it isn't locked down).

No, you can't; this is an architectural difference.

This goes back to system-level design philosophy; the famous Minix/Linux flamewars among others.

QNX was built the way it was so that at its core it is both deterministic in its behavior and extremely secure, because it does not have to admit anything into the "inner circle" to function. If you can't get in there you can't corrupt it.

It's a different philosophy.

We'll see if Blackberry exploits this; if they have this up their sleeve the Apple and Google duopoloy (not to mention Microsoft) are in for a hell of a surprise.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Kiber
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All this tech is great...only a few understand it now and maybe it will be great a year from now. But for now, out of longs and shorting as I type. just trading...good luck to all...
Genesis
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It's off the HTB list again which is exactly what happened last time - right before it went up the pooter of anyone dumb enough to pile onto it.

I converted my CALLs into money yesterday, but I'll be damned if I'm going to short this thing; I don't want this:
smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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