Employment Report: WATCH THE HAIR in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2013-02-01 09:10
by Karl Denninger
in Employment

Employment Report: WATCH THE HAIR

The Bureau of Lies and Scams reported this morning...

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs over the month.

That's from the establishment survey. Benchmark revisions are also this month (January), which means that the number is frequently full of "hair" and the headline has to be looked beyond -- more than usual.

But even "sans hair", there is little to cheer about -- the employment rate did not go down and 157,000 -- assuming you believe the number (and you shouldn't, as I'll get to shortly) isn't good. The workweek was unchanged overall and down for production and non-supervisory employees, now standing at 33.6 hours. That is considerably below "full time, 40 hours" -- still.

Average hourly earnings, on the other hand, was up 5 cents for production and non-supervisory employees. That's about the only good news, despite claimed revisions for November and December (which likely are where the spooge-fest came from in the futures.)

That's where the good news ends.

Here's the table from the household survey, unadjusted, which is what I use and always have.

Notice that both monthly and annualized are now headed southbound. While annualized is still positive, it's going the wrong way -- and the monthly numbers are horrible.

How horrible? Employed dropped by 1.446 million people!

Now to be fair this is usual for January to some degree. But make no mistake folks -- the layoffs this January were double that of last year, when January was -737,000. The idea that this report is "strong" is just plain crap -- or if you prefer, a lie.

Not-in-labor force moved too -- the wrong way. 423,000 gave up last month alone.

The benchmark revision also added massively to population, taking it up 313,000 people, which is about double the monthly average. If you want to look at employment including the change in working-age population it's about 1,750,000 fewer employed, population-adjusted.

This is a serious deterioration and it showed up right here:

And worse, here:

We're one tenth above last January in terms of the employment-population ratio.

In other words there has been no meaningful change in actual population-adjusted employment whatsoever over the last 12 months.

This report is a train wreck.

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User Info	Employment Report: WATCH THE HAIR in forum [Market-Ticker]
Harrisonact Posts: 1754 Incept: 2010-10-04 canada	But but everyone started a successful small business so it's all good ya right. ---------- bilge My playbook speaks espańol. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it. 2013-02-01 09:14:18 Permalink
Hogman Posts: 7874 Incept: 2008-02-18 Derby City, USA	Hasn't been good since 2008 Amazing the ***wads in DC can't see that their policies are killing job growth in the US And I seriously doubt it will get better anytime soon 2013-02-01 09:20:01 Permalink*
Mo Posts: 12158 Incept: 2007-06-26 Pa.	Employment in and around DC is great, Hogman. Get with the program. ---------- Welcome to Pottersville 2013-02-01 09:21:52 Permalink
Mayorquimby Posts: 13909 Incept: 2008-09-18 The Archaic Past	Looks like flag in labor participation. The bad kind. ---------- They who wish to hurt you, work within the law. - Morrissey Gold is theft. 2013-02-01 09:22:03 Permalink
Dji Posts: 1245 Incept: 2009-04-21 Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun	So when does the EBT card holder number come out? And will it be 1 mill or more added in Jan? Place your bets. ---------- Don't be a bag holder-Me What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project 2013-02-01 09:23:39 Permalink
Randy123 Posts: 5776 Incept: 2008-09-24 Earth	I would say employment hasn't been good since 2000 actually. I still think that is the starting point. ---------- China is the Enemy. Wake Up. New Normal. Same As The Old Awful. 2013-02-01 09:24:05 Permalink
Trades50 Posts: 4215 Incept: 2007-10-30 Land of Tax and Spend	Still thinking we hit over 50 million on food stamps this year? The government stats predict 47.5 million but with healthcare costs and people rolling off Unemployment insurance we may get a bump up. http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.... They already removed the debt limit, although temporarily . The BLS and media scam goes on until we have a currency crisis. ---------- When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson Last modified: 2013-02-01 09:37:06 by trades50 2013-02-01 09:31:49 Permalink
Flappingeagle Posts: 1227 Incept: 2011-04-14	I still suspect that a lot of people who get below 30 hours will seek second jobs. Thus some people getting second jobs will partially crowd out people looking for a first job. Could there be a situation where people working two jobs are double counted in the ADP survey? If so, it would make the ADP number look good while making the unemployment number look bad. Flap ---------- Here are my predictions for everyone to see: S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu. "You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner. 2013-02-01 09:40:50 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 130717 Incept: 2007-06-26	In theory that should not happen as ADP has SSNs. ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* 2013-02-01 09:41:29 Permalink
Kochevnik Posts: 547 Incept: 2007-07-30 Dallas TX	- 141 / 1.75 = 80.5 months So in 6 years, 8.5 months - October 15, 2019 by my math - there will be no one left in the USA who is 'employed'. ---------- There are decades where nothing happens - and there are weeks where decades happen. -- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Last modified: 2013-02-01 09:44:28 by kochevnik 2013-02-01 09:43:03 Permalink
Dogfarm Posts: 3233 Incept: 2007-11-29 Online	DC employment is good. home values trending up. Life in Oz is good. ---------- Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour (1 Peter 5:8) 2013-02-01 10:07:00 Permalink
Nuke_engineer Posts: 2698 Incept: 2007-08-19	Yep, the problem with propaganda that has to do with numbers is that once you lie, you eventually have to comeback and align the lies with reality at some point. If the problem you lied about and published initially gets worse, the bigger the correction. BLS has some whoppers it must correct because if it doesn't then someone will start an investigation. IMHO, the whoppers will get even more interesting in the next few weeks as the employment situation worsens and they have to normalize their lies to fall in line with a worsening reality. ---------- Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you. 2013-02-01 10:11:16 Permalink
Savingsaretheway Posts: 118 Incept: 2011-12-16	Both stocks and Treasuries are rallying today. I give up. 2013-02-01 10:17:26 Permalink
Nuke_engineer Posts: 2698 Incept: 2007-08-19	The Yahoo and WSJ headlines only talk about the Establishment Survey nobody cares about details anymore and the household survey is in the back. As long as they can fake a headline "Slow but Steady Growth" from that set of lies, the market will go to the moon with another free POMO crack injection from the dealer to keep the junkie focused on the high. The truth will not be found because no one (except for Gen and some others) will actually read the complete report and figure out the nuances of the propaganda. This is a headline driven market and until the headlines give out and the POMO crack doesn't give you a high, it will continue to rise. Just like 2007. ---------- Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you. Last modified: 2013-02-01 10:34:51 by nuke_engineer 2013-02-01 10:31:27 Permalink
J0nx Posts: 3068 Incept: 2008-08-12 The trashcan of the nation	For now it's good in DC. Lots of contractors in this area already getting their notification that they are cut. Same for military types. UE in the DC area is about to go wayy up me thinks. The DC area will feel some serious pain with all these budget cuts coming up that will flood throughout the rest of the local economy as well. 2013-2014 we may catch up to the rest of the country. ---------- The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it. 2013-02-01 10:35:41 Permalink
Ktrosper Posts: 1500 Incept: 2010-04-06 ft collins co	Dogfarm wrote.. DC employment is good. home values trending up. Life in Oz is good. Yup. Crane on every corner from what I hear. The business of taking **** from producers is great! ---------- The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D 2013-02-01 10:42:28 Permalink
Dashingdwl Posts: 9760 Incept: 2007-06-26 los angeles	I just took a call from a senior banker at Suntrust Robinson Humphries. 25 year veteran and my old boss. He was recruiting me to come work for him again. His quote, "Dean-o, it's a new dawn in America. The clouds have lifted. Banks are healthy, we're doing deals again. Get back on board... things couldn't be better." I started to give him some facts on why he is wrong and he said... "Don't fight the tape." ---------- When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty. Last modified: 2013-02-01 11:01:17 by dashingdwl 2013-02-01 11:00:29 Permalink
Bertdilbert Posts: 2658 Incept: 2008-12-22 CA	Hey we got "green shoots" (green shoots = first time gun owner at the range) ---------- Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money! Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro. 2013-02-01 11:01:11 Permalink
Nomennescio Posts: 63 Incept: 2012-01-16	Bert, I thought you got green shoots from eating at a contaminated salad bar. Learn something every day. 2013-02-01 11:13:36 Permalink
Jonesapple10 Posts: 379 Incept: 2010-11-09	Man CNBS this am made it seem like we're is the greatest economy ever. 2013-02-01 11:34:08 Permalink
Trades50 Posts: 4215 Incept: 2007-10-30 Land of Tax and Spend	Quote: The DC area will feel some serious pain with all these budget cuts The escalation of tension in the middle east is coming just in time. A good excuse for them to delay the cuts. If I was thinking tin-foil I would suspect it was arranged. ---------- When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson 2013-02-01 11:35:44 Permalink
Ktrosper Posts: 1500 Incept: 2010-04-06 ft collins co	Nomen wrote.. Bert, I thought you got green shoots from eating at a contaminated salad bar. Learn something every day. hmm I thought it was the explosive diarrhea that came out of the Presidents mouth during his radio addy this week. Prez wrote.. ...we passed tough reforms to protect consumers and our financial system from the kind of abuse that nearly brought our economy to its knees. And that's why we've taken steps to end taxpayer-funded bailouts, and make sure businesses and individuals who do the right thing aren't undermined by those who don't. ---------- The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D 2013-02-01 11:48:53 Permalink
Smacktle Posts: 1361 Incept: 2009-01-20 Texas	The stock market has entered a different dimension. One I damn sure can't see yet! ---------- The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier. - George Bernard Shaw 2013-02-01 12:00:48 Permalink
Imustbenutz Posts: 283 Incept: 2010-11-04 Absurdistan, USSA	Everything is coming up roses! Employers in 19 states which carry a FUA loan balance are in for a big surprise! New law that went into effect on Jan. 1, 2013 makes employers liable for additional FUTA taxes RETROACTIVE to Jan. 1, 2012. Here is a list of states - http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/labo.... 2013-02-01 12:07:53 Permalink

Dogfarm wrote..

Quote:

Nomen wrote..

Prez wrote..