Amazon Buyers: Did You READ The Report?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-29 23:24
by Karl Denninger
in Earnings
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Amazon Buyers: Did You READ The Report?
 

I have to wonder.  After all, the numbers are right here.

Let's just cut the crap and get to the facts. 

Free cash flow decreased to $395 million -- on sales of $27 billion, or 0.065%.  That sucks.  It's also down 81% from last year when it was $2.09 billion on $48.08 billion (4.35%, which is still pretty crappy.)

Net income was down 45% as well.  And while full year sales were up 27%, net was down on the higher sales amount, and so was operating income on a full year basis!  In fact it was down 22%!

Transition says Bezos?  Like hell.

Further, net sales are forecast under estimates for the next quarter and the company's operating income range is wider on the negative (loss) side than positive.

Everyone wants to talk about the increased cash position.  Did you notice where it came from? 

The company sold just over $3 billion in debt -- but the cash position increased by about half that.  Worse, depreciation and amortization roughly doubled!

Doubled folks, while sales were up 27%.  That's not good, it's bad!  Your depreciation and amortization should not be rising faster than sales; if it is you're becoming less efficient, not more.

It's good that payables were lower at year end and receivables were inline -- that's positive and means your control of both vendors and customer credit is reasonable.

Fulfillment expenses were up 36% in the last three months -- and up 47% on the year -- while sales were up 27%.  Remember that some sales are digital in format and have near-zero fulfillment expense.  This is not good either; fulfillment expenses increasing faster than sales is again an indication of efficiency problems.  In this case that increase is not small either, especially on a full-year basis.  Fulfillment expenses rising at nearly double the rate of sales increase is especially troubling!

G&A is rising faster too -- 36% on the year.

And while interest expense is relatively modest at $92 million, it now is more than double interest income, where last year it was near-parity.  That, of course, came from selling that $3 billion (roughly) in new debt, and will continue to be there in the future.

And by the way, without that interest expense the company would have made a profit on the year.  A small profit... but a profit.

Oh, and if that's not enough, growth is slowing.  A lot.

By 38% in the last quarter of the year (compared to 2011) and by 30% on the full year.

Forward stock price multiple expansion is supposed to come from increasing sales growth on a percentage basis, not contracting.

Of particular concern is the fact that electronics and general merchandise sales growth rates for the last three months -- Christmas Season -- dropped approximately in half from last year.  While media increased a bunch it's also only about a third of the size of general merchandise.  "Other" is inconsequential; about 7% of the whole.

This chart from the release says it all:

The market is ramping this firm's stock price into a deteriorating growth story.

IMHO you're nuts.

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Djloche
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In the Mountains
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Is this more 'rotation' or just people drinking the kool-aid instead of reading the report?

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Medicdan
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Quote:
net was down on the higher sales amount


That's all I need to know.

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Genesis
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Dj: It appears they only read the pump in the front, not the tables in the back.

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Niti
Posts: 520
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Since Amazon started collecting tax in Pennsylvania, I have shopped around some more and will buy elsewhere if possible. I bought computer parts and some nice NAS devices last year from them, but I didn't this year. Went to Newegg, same parts and price as Amazon, but no tax on $3700. I really like Amazon with the reviews and free shipping but they won't compete with the sales tax as well as in the past. And if I get something very expensive and heavy, Delaware is right down the road. Let's see what happens in the market tomorrow- rest of the week with Amazon.

Edit: Karl got the PCs together, talk about fast. Photoshop loads in seconds. And I bought a $30 fan.

Raftermanfmj
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Quote:
Since Amazon started collecting tax in Pennsylvania, I have shopped around some more and will buy elsewhere if possible.


Same here, Niti.

And it's a good thing Amazon decided to get involved in the 'gun control' debate; that's just a genius move.

Someone needs to ask Bezos his opinions on Affirmative Action and Abortion; come, dazzle us with your super genius ideals.

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Niti
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Gold
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Well, gotta do what I gotta do. Running a business. If I have to pay tax on everything... I now have to pay tax on the dental supplies for my practice. Thanks to Obama. A little here a little there. License fees, DEP fees, on and on. I haven't raised my treatment fees in 5 years. Government wants it all. But this is about Amazon....
Yaldor
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Typo ? : "Free cash flow decreased to $395 million -- on sales of $.27 billion, or 0.065%. That sucks. It's also down 81% from last year when it was $2.09 billion on $48.08 billion (4.35%, which is still pretty crappy.)"

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End_the_bubbles
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These clowns are starting to make the market act like 1999 again. I never truly believed we would see THIS type of insanity that we've seen of late, especially after the market peak of 2007 and collapse of 2008-2009, but it's as ****ing nutty as ever.

I'm rather inclined to think it's going to get even crazier before it all ends....

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Gen_maximus57
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Technically, when should the short be put on here?
Nuke_engineer
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aaahhh.....the retail sheepvestors are herding nicely...just keep following the pied piper headlines from the complicit media for the shearing.....

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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.

Etz
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Washington Mutual comes to mind.

It's all peachy until one day poof, it's gone!


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Tsherry
Posts: 193
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Spokane WA
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Well, holy ****. That airframe is shot full of holes and on fire. Worse yet, it appears the crew on the flight deck is unaware they're in trouble, just feeling a little turbulence and sluggishness in the controls. They're losing power and altitude and drag is increasing, compounding every bad thing that can happen.

I run a little tiny company and if I saw numbers like that I would be making radical changes immediately, or risk obliteration....almost immediately.

I need to get some popcorn for this one. It'll be damned entertaining.
Seriousslacker
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Now why did you have to go and spoil my put buying opportunity in the morning! :)
Deckchairs
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The Slightly lessDemocrat -IC People's Rebuplic of Las
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I personally think Fakebook will have some bad elements in their earnings announcement tomorrow because they postponed the date by several days. I track earnings dates relative to their calendaring in Yahoo finance.

Tomorrow A.M. I will buy some out of the money puts and then hedge my bets and buy some out of the money calls as well. Hoping for a surprise either way.

Still kicking myself for not buying those $.18 $120 strike price Netflix calls last week.

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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Deckchairs
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Just to clarify I have to hedge in case the market reacts to what should be negative news in a retarded way like it did to AMAZON today.

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Deckchairs
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Also according to my hypothesis GROUPON should have truly lousy earnings or at least a tremendously sh*&y outlook given they pushed their announcement date back like 2.5 weeks.


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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Aztrader
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We have a store on Amazon and due to the type of product and being the only one offering several in our field, had blockbuster sales on our store in December and Janaury. Unfortunately, in order to sell product on Amazon, you have to be the lowest price on that specific product or you don't get the sale.
Amazon literally forces it's vendors into price wars that end up making you little profit on your sales. They give the customer complete power over the vendor in the rating system. If your company has under 25 ratings, a single star rating will give Amazon the power to close your store without notice. They don't give the vendor an opportunity to argue the point and simply shut you down. Our store has had over 600 sales in the past 60 days and only 100 ratings. Amazon buyers are lazy and simply shopping for the best price. They don't push the customer to rate the sale like EBAy and if you are really a good vendor, are punished by this low rate of ratings.
We have experienced more and more really stupid buyers. They see a product with an optional product next to it and automatically think they are both included irregardless of the product description. We had one guy immediately hit us with 1 star until we shipped him a free holster because of the picture. Amazon doesn't protect it's vendors in any way. We are cattle fodder to them because they believe that vendors will always be there to replace us.
What they don't understand is more and more vendors are drop-shippers meaning they don't carry inventory. This leads to a lot of orders not being fulfilled on a timely basis because these vendors don't control their distributors inventory.
Amazon is trying to force their vendors to procur via their their new warehouses, but you have to supply them with a minimum of 100 pieces for inventory and most vendors can't afford that. Amazon is throwing hundreds of millions into warehouses that are getting more and more expensive every day. They don't truly understand how to ship the cheapest and most efficient way. Most of the time, when you get a package from Amazon with an Amazon box, means that they procurred it from their warehouse. It also comes via Fedex or UPS, meaning the vendor, if a 3rd party, had to pay higher shipping costs on that product. If we didn't use the USPS for most of our small items, we would be out of business. Most vendors don't have the luxury of spending a minimum of $10 on shipping small items.
Amazons expansion will eventually kill them. They are so keyed on the customer getting thier product quickly that they have ignored their real costs. Americans are getting more and more impatient and demand almost immediate shipment.
We try to ship same day because we keep substantial inventory on hand and only list what we can ship. A lot of other vendors put down any inventory number because they are drop shippers and don't care what their distributors really have in stock.
When I got up this morning, I found over 14 new orders on our store for the same item. Because we are a distributor ourselves, we can outprice anyone else even though it does hurt our margins. If you want to sell successfully on Amazon, you have to offer the best pricing.
Amazons back office has a lot to be desired. You can't pick and choose individual shipping rates for specific products irregardless of weight or value. When you ship a $50 via UPS at 3 lbs vs a $300 product at 2 lbs, your rate on the $300 item is much more expensive due to the insurance on the package. Amazon's system completely ignores this and still nails the vendor by universally charging the same shipping on both products.
We have no customer service to talk too unless you spend an hour looking for a number and when you get one, they never can help because of Amazons, "The customer is always right BS"............

Try selling product to a foreign national who speaks poor english and doesn't understand how a product works. They have the power to bury your store with a poor rating even though they don't have a simple understanding of the product. The more and more this country goes into entitlement mode, the fewer vendors will be selling on Amazon. When a customer has the ability to use extortion to bleed the vendor, then it's not worth the hell of selling on Amazon.
Jubber
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Is this worth shorting today after the pop???

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Trades50
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Quote:
clowns are starting to make the market act like 1999 again.


Those on CNBS over the last 4 years have been theorizing schemes on bringing the public back into the market. It's good old greed.

Bring up the market enough and steadily, make people feel comfortable, draw more people in and they switch their cash to mutual funds. They don't want to be left behind. Last to get in and last to get out. Buy high, sell low.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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You can sell any growth company that counts themortgagedude among their customers. By the time I jump aboard the growth is pretty much gone. You might want to sell Amazon and Apple folks.

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Jonesapple10
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Amazon stills does a great job at customer service (maybe too good). I've had the original Kindle since it came out roughly 2 years ago. I just called them because the battery charging port was loose and not working. Without even questioning me, they sent me a replacement, free shipping both ways.

Whenever I've had the slightest problem, they have replaced it, credit the account or whatever. But, they are simply operating at to low of margins and ultimately they will have to change. Unfortunately for them, I am still price conscious, so if they start to price themselves out(and they already have in some cases) I will be out too.
Deckchairs
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The Slightly lessDemocrat -IC People's Rebuplic of Las
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Quote:
Is this worth shorting today after the pop???


@Jubber I never short in the classical sense because I don't like the risk profile. When you short in the classical sense you can eat it if the stock rises in price on you. You lose more the higher the stock goes.

Whereas when you buy an out of the money put all you risk is the price and commission you paid for the option. So if the stock rises on you you just forfeit your commission and the price you paid for the option no matter how high the stock climbs.

Its pure gambling around earnings announcements and most day traders don't do it because they don't keep open positions overnight.

Like I said with all the euphoria I don't even know that the market will react negatively to negative news.

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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Aztrader
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Scottsdale, AZ
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Jones,

Who did you call at Amazon. According to the release, over 40% of their volume came from outside vendors.
What gripes me is that when an outside vendor gives outstanding service, the buyer gives the credit to Amazon. If they are the actual vendor and that is becoming larger every day, then so be it.
Most vendors will break their backs giving customer service because of Amazons rating system is so biased towards the customer. We typically get emails from the customers, but never a call.
Pookie
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Florida
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Good call, Karl.

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Once you admit that the individual is merely a means to serve the ends of the higher entity called society or the nation, most of those features of totalitarian regimes which horrify us follow of necessity. --F.A. Hayek
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