You Just Figured This Out FICO?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-29 16:33
by Karl Denninger
in Education
Ignore this thread
You Just Figured This Out FICO?
 

Oh do c'mon...

Delinquency rates on student loans made in the past two years stand at 15 percent in the U.S. as recent graduates struggle to find jobs, Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) said.

“This situation is simply unsustainable and we’re already suffering the consequences,” Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer of Fair Issac, said in the statement. “When wage growth is slow and jobs are not as plentiful as they once were, it is impossible for individuals to continue taking out ever-larger student loans without greatly increasing the risk of default.”

No, really?

WE are suffering the consequences?  How about all the young adults who have gotten screwed?

Look, there's no argument that education is good in the general sense.  But all good things can become priced at a level that makes no economic sense, irrespective of how good they are.

That's the case for most college educations today.

Sure, there are exceptions left, particularly in certain STEM areas of study.  But for many areas of study there is no cost:benefit ratio that works.

That is the problem, in short.  You have to look at the total cost including the foregone income and advancement during the time you were in college, along with the cost of repayment if you take on debt.  And once you do there is little if any argument for college education outside of certain STEM fields -- and those areas of benefit are narrowing rapidly.

There's only one way to stop this, and that's to shut off the "free money" machine.  That will in turn force colleges to lower prices or go out of business -- and many of them will in fact go under, as they have spent ridiculous amounts of money on things that have little relevance to actual education.

Young adults are, in fact adults.  If they choose to do foolish things they have the right to do so.  But if you're the parent of one of these young adults you have an obligation not to aid an abet these institutions in their financial abuse of your offspring.

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User Info You Just Figured This Out FICO? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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Karl, Karl, you need to just give up your guns and go and smoke some medical marijuana. Stop worrying about student debt and other inane issues. All will be well.....

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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This is more than a one-link chain.

Link two is autos as they will not qualify for a car loan.
Link three is housing, when they want a house the will not qualify for it either.

The current scheme of indenting the young is screwing he out try for at least 20 years.

IMHO, the only way out that is peacefully will be a "debt jubilee" form of BK where we do some form of mass default and write off lots of debt. There will be so many cases that the traditional court system can't handle them in anything close to a timely fashion.

Either that or grind it out slowllllyyyyy forever.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-cuban....

As good a place as any to post this link again. Mark Cuban has given the educational system a lot of thought. Good read and very little of it contradicts the Chief Bottle Washer.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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Flap this is going to be a long term drag on the economy. Many of these student loans have 20+ year payment terms. We are going to be going into a dead zone over the next 40 years. When the millenials are at peak earnings and unable to make big purchases because of student loan debt, it is going to inflict a MASSIVE blow on our 70% consumption based economy. There is going to be some serious pain ahead with a ton of collateral damage. I think the only way out to amend the bankruptcy laws to allow for the discharge of student loans in bankruptcy, with all of the attendant consequences.

Jubilee does no good. It wipes the slate clean for more reckless borrowing. If you make student loans dischargeable, then there is a personal consequence to borrowing too much, and it disincentivizes over-borrowing for a worthless degree. In addition, rates would have to rise to reflect the real risk of lending. People simply would not be able to borrow the money because the interest rate attached would make it cost-prohibitive.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Harrisonact
Posts: 1754
Incept: 2010-10-04

canada
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the ass rapage is here also .

wife's kid needs $100000 for his 4 yr. degree

we plan on paying cash.

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Emdeplam
Posts: 2046
Incept: 2008-01-10
Silver
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It will be socialized...the imprudent have too many votes and the prudent got on there knees too easy for the housing idiots.

"we plan on paying cash." Just like the 20% down-payment type...when Uncle Sugar comes for 'the children' you will wish you loaded the truck with loans...who was better off in the end...buying a home at peak with 20% down or ninja loan--> well ninja waited and got modified and a few years rent free while 20% went to vapor

Curious1
Posts: 441
Incept: 2008-03-22
Green
Oregon
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Harrison,

Is that for an undergrad degree? Don't borrow a penny for those. Live at home 2 years as well and go to a local University if at all possible. Not as much fun but better in the long run.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Harris I second the live st home plan. Do juco two years, make good grades and transfer to state U.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Olduser
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-09-11
Silver
Mile High
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Granddaughter graduated Cum Laude 2 years ago from Drexel with a Bio-Medical Engineering degree (MS). No opportunities in her field. She has a one loan and is current. (we couldn't underwrite everything) She says that R & D has been slashed and device companies are scaling back in the US. All this to say that there are no guarantees...even for accomplished grads.

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No, folks, we will not do this voluntarily.
We'll do it the hard way. - Karl Denninger

I only care what is and I just prepare. - Genesis
Harrisonact
Posts: 1754
Incept: 2010-10-04

canada
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It's for his graduate degree. it's a specialized program from the get go. I shoulda said wife insists on paying cash.

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Mannfm11
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Gold
DFW, Tx
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Remember, this is a socialist employment scam. Academia quite often favors socialist ideas and teaches them to their students as fact. I have never figured out why it costs a student $1000 or more at some universities to sit in a room 3 hours a week for 15 weeks and have some clown teach them English or basic math? There are probably a few high level classes that require a high competent individual to teach and maybe they should cost more. There is a back door into education where hundreds of billions a year disappear.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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I think the end result is a 3 day work week. **** the work week is almost 4 days right now. The new jobs are going to be in personal fitness, outdoor hobbies, yoga and other leisure and travel jobs.

The STEMs are starting to be off-shored. Alot of white collar jobs are just becoming obsolete.

Buckeye
Posts: 512
Incept: 2008-03-03
Green
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Don't worry...they will be bailed out. Nothing is allowed to fail anymore.
Deckchairs
Posts: 96
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The Slightly lessDemocrat -IC People's Rebuplic of Las
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Ahh don't worry. The gov't (Congress) will just give visa's to any and all Chinese who will buy the boomers houses and buy nice cars here.

The young native adults will end up really educated but jobless, homeless, and credit less. Thanks *******s. In the future someday the progeny of these Congress people will never ever admit their ancestry.





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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Bagbalm
Posts: 4262
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Just North of Detroit
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And yet we have people who insist you must have a degree - any degree - to work for them. We had a company here demanding a degree - ANY degree - to sell cars, and making a point of it in their ads. It's just social snobbery. They are gone, out of business.
Genesis
Posts: 130779
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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And they got their just results.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Drb
Posts: 195
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TX
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1. Olduser - I think that "bio-med-engineering" is a buzz-BS-major that was made up by administrators so they would have some shiny new toy to look better. I lecture at pharma companies quite a lot and I have not seen many bio-med-engineering grads work there. Bio-med-engineering has all hallmarks of major that is made up for advertising purposes - three buzzwords combined, one of them redundant (med IS bio by definition). I do not think that is a real engineering major anyway, as opposed to chemical, petroleum, or mechanical etc engineering. BTW petroleum engineering majors here have multiple job offers even in this economy.

2. The Huffpost link above is incomplete as it talks only about "online degrees" in business etc. I would like to see an online degree in chemistry or somewhere else where you actually need labwork and where you need more knowledge than for selling crap to unsuspecting customers or complaining about discrimination.

My experience with people who have taken courses online is that in most cases they have learned jack **** - if you do exams in the privacy of your own home, which is what many of online universities allow you, then cheating is extreme. I am not saying that online courses are universally bad, but I still have to see successful examples. Additionally, at some UC schools from what I hear online courses are more expensive - students pay additional "technology fee".

Jack_crabb
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Our County Library, which is one of the best in our state even though we are very rural and one of the poorer counties in the state, apparently requires a Bachelors degree in order to be a librarian. I about crapped myself when I heard this.

I have a friend who is almost 60 and went in to talk about one of their part-time positions and he was told this. What the hell difference would a degree make for someone qualified to do the work? He has 40 years worth of work history.

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Molon Labe

Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
Arpwatch
Posts: 3051
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Pretty sure a "real" librarian requires a masters.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 2470
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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****. For what, Arpwatch? Is this just another example of degree creep? I would put money on it that I could do that job with outstanding results and the only degree I have is from the School of Hard Knocks.

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Molon Labe

Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
Duc888
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CT, the UNconstitution State
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The next stage in this charade is when King O offers them jobs as DHS Brownshirts. Win/win.

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...burp
Olduser
Posts: 287
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Silver
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Drb

According to the working definition of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), biomedical engineering integrates physical, chemical, mathematical and computational sciences and engineering principles to study biology, medicine, behavior, and health. It advances fundamental concepts, creates knowledge from the molecular to the organ system levels, and develops innovative biologics, materials, processes, implants, devices and informatics approaches for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease; for patient rehabilitation; and for improving health.

http://www.biomed.drexel.edu/new04/defau....

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No, folks, we will not do this voluntarily.
We'll do it the hard way. - Karl Denninger

I only care what is and I just prepare. - Genesis
Niti
Posts: 522
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Gold
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I was just talking withan oral surgeon. I asked him why he choose the area where he lives, and he said it came down to taxes. He has an average house and he has his school loans, another "mortgage payment". He owes about 300k, but was well aware that some OSs have a cool half-million to pay back. I have already met 2 endodontists and an orthodontist all with school debt over a half million. I think we are going to see more people with compromised ethics in the future. This indebtedness will affect individuals morals and society as a whole.

Drb
Posts: 195
Incept: 2011-01-02

TX
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Mannfm -

good luck finding someone teaching chem engineering/any other engineering/chemistry if you do not pay them enough. Starting salaries at BS level are 65K and at PhD level >90K for chem engineers (most jobs are in industry). I guess general thinking here is that people will run to teach at miserable salaries and will be happy to deal with whiny students and retarded administration. In some fields though people can go and work for industry, and get paid substantially more than going into academia. If you would pay them peanuts, you will get*****-poor profs.
And before someone here will start talking about "academics getting paid too much" here is the link with salaries: http://cen.acs.org/articles/90/i23/Start.... Academics have the lowest salaries for chem and chemE graduates.

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