A Tale Of Two (Fairly Large) Tech Troubles
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-29 09:33
by Karl Denninger
in Technology
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A Tale Of Two (Fairly Large) Tech Troubles
 

Specifically, Seagate (STX) and VMWare (VMW).

Both got hammered last night following their earnings reports.  VMWare and Seagate were both flying on the premise that "cloud computing" was the "savior of the world", and that both virtualization and of course ever-expanding storage requirements come with this premise.

But the guidance -- and the conference calls -- were full of hemming and hawing on forward expectations. 

Seagate, interestingly-enough, was trading at a P/E of five before this happened, and they pay a 4% yield!  To get hammered for roughly 6% on "softer guidance" is either a gross over-reaction or it presages a top in the "virtualization and cloud" meme.

VMWare says, by the results, it's the second.

Now do realize that VMWare had a P/E of about 58 (!) before the report, and that the company did beat on both the top and bottom line.  But the earnings call and forward guidance did not lead to confidence in the future, and stock prices look at forward expectations.

My view is that the entire "cloud" game has been radically oversold, just as the tech meme was in the late 1990s.  Yes, there is a business there, but (1) the economies of scale aren't nearly what people make them out to be, (2) the risks are under-appreciated and dangerously so for many enterprise applications and (3) this has resulted in utterly ridiculous forward expectations that will resolve in the southerly direction for the stock price of related firms.

I know this is a contrarian view, but this is my set of expectations given my experience in the tech world.  Simply put we are again living in a dreamland when it comes to tech, where valuations don't matter, actual earnings don't matter and indefinite exponential growth is again being sold to investors as the way the world works.

It's a lie this time just like it has been every other time, leaving the only real question "has recognition occurred and the collapse yet begun?"

Disclosure: No position in either company.

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User Info A Tale Of Two (Fairly Large) Tech Troubles in forum [Market-Ticker]
Maddymax
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cramer says buy amzn with pe to infinity. i watch at most 5 minutes of bloom or cnbs a day as i head out door. after all leaks from press being confirmed and timmy to banks zero is here

just dont care anymore 5 years of lies and cover up and we are worse off in real world

can it get any more depressing

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Rln2433
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So what is your take on the Internet of Things/M2M/Big Data/etc., etc conversation taking place right now? It is certainly something being touted far and wide by the tech community with a good amount of buzz/hype thrown in.
Trades50
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Great observation. Remember all those fiber companies calling for more and more bandwidth and demand until it was all overbought.

Then reality. Their playing the same game again. Although the media seems to be playing along with it more now than back then. Maybe it's because Obama is president.

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Genesis
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Rln: It's mostly bull****.

Look, more data is good provided you can analyze and use it to drive decisions. But there is a point of diminishing returns and it comes faster than you think.

It's the old 80% rule. The first 80% of any problem is easily solved and is pretty cheap. The last 20% is a pain in the ass, and as you get closer to 100% the price of each additional increment rises exponentially.

The crossover into "not worth it" territory is often missed, and that's when the crash comes, because the so-called "investment" in fact yields negative returns. Recognition that this has happened is almost always in hindsight, and that's bad news for anyone caught on the wrong side of the equation.

I think we're there when it comes to the "cloud" thing. Simply put, I don't see the value argument.

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Assassin
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but to the extent that the Cloud doesn't take off, won't traditional storage on individual PCs (i.e. hard drives) be stronger? the data has to be kept somewhere. or will the move to SSD and flash memory outweigh that?
Iou
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I agree and have become quit tired of the "cloud" meme myself. We use vm's and cloud storage for testing and certain applications. These technologies serve a specific purpose but they are oversold by all the used car salesmen that have taken over the industry...

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Rln2433
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IoT is supposed to be that thing that makes pushes the cloud into nirvana....

Certainly a lot of useful applications for it but the big fail will happen when they try to take it into consumer land. One thing to monitor the warehouse or automate a factory, quite another when you start dealing with subscriber security or try to get people to shell out extra money every month for more data services.
Jubber
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CRM got a big markdown this morning

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Ckaminski
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I email the CEO of Netflix every week that it's time that they move off of Amazon AWS - I was a victim of the Christmas Eve outage. :(

I believe in the Cloud, but I know hype when I hear it. :-)

Ptoemmes
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AT&T just pitched me RingCentral which is marketed as a cloud based virtual pbx of sorts. We already use a virtual pbx solution from a firm out of San Jose. As usual (with AT&T) it's hard to get much detail about it. The ole 30 day free trial pitch, but you have to migrate numbers in and then if you don't like it....
Obseedian
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Hyper-V has gotten to the point where it is good enough for most small/medium businesses. It comes free with Windows Server.

Virtualization is becoming commoditized and that will slowly undermine WMWare's revenues.

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Ckaminski
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Quote:
Hyper-V has gotten to the point where it is good enough for most small/medium businesses. It comes free with Windows Server.


XenServer, KVM and ESXi have been free also for a long time, and Xen/KVM are FREE in all senses of the word. Sadly, the VMware infrastructure world still has the best management tools. :-/

I'm STILL not getting the value-add behind VMware's purchase of Springsource...

Goldmanssack
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Agree, Obseedian. Citrix has for a couple of years now included a Xen-based hypervisor for free when you buy their other products. HyperV is finally a good enough product.

Hypervisor commoditization is here, vendors know it, and now are jumping into the mobility space.

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Bertdilbert
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If Cloud falls from favor, we can always rename it Fog, it is all the same stuff, with only elevation appearing to be the determining factor.

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Eaglewwit
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And the market keeps on chugging along. This is the Teflon market.
Obseedian
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Quote:
Sadly, the VMware infrastructure world still has the best management tools. :-/

That might not even be true anymore. And feature-wise, Server 2012 Hyper-V apparently eats vSphere5.1 for breakfast.

http://www.aidanfinn.com/?p=13483
Quote:
Cost

No competition here. Hyper-V is free. If you run Windows Server in your VMs then you’re already buying Standard or Datacenter edition at the host level and using the virtualisation rights. If that’s not how you’re doing it then please send me your company/customers name(s) so I can make some easy money.

You can learn how to license Windows Server VMs legally using my recent post.

That means you get all of what Hyper-V does for free. Choosing to run vSphere 5.1 with Windows Server VMs means you are adding the cost of vSphere. OK, but for less than that cost I can license myself for a System Center SML and have all of System Center’s private cloud and integrated enterprise systems management functionality. Of course, you can choose to spend more money for a collection receently acquired confusing VMware point solutions. But that’s just my opinion of it.

I fail to see the rationale for the outrageous PE ratios.

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Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
Jb350
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I've got movement on my indicator. Two day average score is -100. It's not the worst I've ever seen but it raises a red flag. I'm expecting a 50 handle pullback over the next couple weeks. Of course with the market going straight up it doesnt take a genius to tell you there is going to be a pullback.

Anyway, I just dont get what seagate gets out of a cloud model of computing. You have a bunch of little NAND based devices replacing a traditional desktop, with the cloud storing the larger data like videos and music. So they lose hard drive sales due to flash, then they lose more in the cloud because if 500 people download a video and store it on their hard drive, then that's 500 hard drives seagate gets to sell. But if they all put that one video on the cloud then they only need to store it once. (Assuming its the same video file of course.) As time goes by those files are going to get redistributed and deduplicated and eventually its just going to be a few companies like amazon and netflix and youtube who are the only buyers of their hard drives.

Eaglewwit
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What is 50 points in the scheme of this market.
Mortgageguymn
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There's no such thing as "the cloud". I could store your precious documents in my cloud... only they'd be in my basement or out in the garage. It's the garage cloud.
Pattonme
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I was the infrastructure engineer for a Big-Data startup in northern VA (the mecca of Cloud and datacenters). We were spending $8000/mo on AWS to run some data analysis jobs. I showed that for a tiny $25-30K capital outlay we could run our own fast storage (EMC, 10K rpm drives) with predictable performance (vs Amazon's miserable and unpredictable performance), our own Dell blade chassis stuffed full (an easy 10x capacity) and 10Gb ethernet everywhere. It was a no-brainer.

IMO The only reason to use AWS is if you don't have computing needs beyond a dozen slow, mild I/O hosts, or conversely have massive computing needs that are only used in a sporadic fashion.
Genesis
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Patton: Yep.

Oh, and you trust their security. Hoh hoh.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Lamont
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I was skeptical of cloud computing back in 2006 when I worked at Amazon, now I see it as a useful tool that is going to get commoditized. Its not going to go away. What it does is push IT departments to control costs, since expensive approaches to IT management will result in departments jumping ship to cheaper cloud computing (to the complete aggravation of the engineers in the IT department). Since Amazon and HP and other cloud providers don't have margins to be able to afford building on EMC and VMware those companies are going to take hits. IT departments in companies will need to be using Xen or KVM or Hyper-V in order to compete with the cloud providers out there on cost.

And, yes, once you hit 50-100 servers in the cloud it starts to make sense to buy your own gear in a hosted datacenter, and once you hit 500 servers or so you should have your own racks and networking gear. However, if you go out and buy EMC and VMware you throw away all the savings you get off of getting off the public cloud...
Genesis
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No, it's not that simple at all.

The reality is that "cloud" is ok if you continually overbuy and underuse. But I/O performance blows big fat ****ing chunks compared to owned yourself in every case I've seen thus far, and CPU on an actual "per use" basis is grossly expensive.

So if you're in that camp where you have a data center of machines that run load averages of 0.05 then sure, you'll save money. But the point is that you wasted the money on all that **** you didn't need in the first place.

On the other hand if you run applications where you're hammering I/O and/or CPU, it just doesn't work on a dollars basis, if it works at all.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Grunwald
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Quote:
There's no such thing as "the cloud". I could store your precious documents in my cloud... only they'd be in my basement or out in the garage. It's the garage cloud.


Bingo! It is just another stupid buzzword for something that existed for a long time. We used to call it remote hosting. That is the problem with IT, too many people involved initial that could not get a degree in computer science but get a BA in ass scratching and the somehow weasel their way into the field. So they come up with stupid terms, and those who code create really crappy software......but they know all the latest buzzwords
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