Pining For That Which Never Was
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-28 09:56
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Pining For That Which Never Was
 

I wish there was a cogent way to explain this point of view -- a point of view that is distressingly common among market commentators and politicians -- that didn't resolve back to the title of this article.  But.... there isn't.

As of 2007, the Fed was unprepared for what was to come, though not mainly for the reason most commentators are highlighting. The initial reporting on the transcripts has focused on whether or not the Fed saw the financial crisis coming, and most find that the Fed did not. But the Fed also missed something much more important.

For all the attention the financial crisis gets in the story of the latest recession, it isn’t that important to understanding our current weak economy. The reason that more than 12 million people are unemployed, that workers no longer quit their jobs or get raises, and that economic prospects are dim for the foreseeable future, has to do with the financial health of consumers, not the health of Wall Street.

The article goes on to conclude...

Reading the transcripts from 2007 makes it clear that, even though it didn’t understand the extent of the problems, the Fed was looking at the financial system as the main source of concern. Households, suffering from the housing-bubble collapse, were a secondary priority. An economic elite more in tune with broader prosperity could have caught the severity of the recession earlier, and made a case for the demand-stimulating monetary policy needed to recover from it.

Nonsense.

This is in fact pining for that which never was.

The simple fact of the matter is that since 2000, and to some extent even before then, the economy was floating on a false premise.

Look at the below chart:

From the late 1990s through 2007 there was anywhere from 2-6 times as much debt taken on in a given quarter as there was expansion in the economy.

There was no actual economic "growth" created through productive output -- it was all financed through promises to pay tomorrow for hamburgers today.

In fact this pattern began in earnest in the early 1990s.

This is the "big scam" among writers and pundits when it comes to "doing more" and "stimulating the economy"; they all proceed from a false premise, that the problem is a transient lack of demand and if we simply add more stimulus economic response will come in the form of greater output and ability to pay.

The facts say that this is not what happens -- and it is particularly not what happens when you lower interest rates and make borrowing cheaper.  Instead, what expands is systemic leverage, or promising to pay tomorrow for hamburgers eaten today.

This was lampooned so many years ago, of course, by the cartoon character Wimpy who first appeared in the 1930s!  It seems that in 1931 cartoonists were very much willing to lampoon the idiocy of the 1920s in terms of debt expansion, but we seem to have forgotten that lesson.

To make matters worse the government has dramatically raised the costs of hiring people.  Obamacare, for example, has turned the employment world on its ear, especially when it comes to the lower end of the scale.  How many 27-year-olds are about to get a nasty surprise when they are expelled from their parents' health insurance and find that (1) their own policy costs $5,000 a year, (2) their boss has cut them to 28 hours a week (from 40) because at 30 they must provide that insurance, a gross pay reduction of 30%, (3) at $15/hour (a pretty good starting wage) they're now grossing $21,000 a year and (4) they don't qualify for any sort of "assistance" as they make too much money, but roughly 1/4 of their gross, before taxes, must either be paid for that "insurance" or they get fined for not having it!

Markets always force resolution of distortions that are foisted upon it.  It may take time before it happens, as the madness of crowds is not to be underestimated. 

But it always happens.

The problem we have in the economy today is that the so-called "demand" in the economy since the early 1990s was not real.  It never existed in terms of organic output and thus trying to revert to what was is impossible, as what "was" didn't really exist.  That ever-increasing alleged demand was predicated upon an exponential series that ran to exhaustion in 2007 and collapsed.

It is the previous level of organic demand that is being returned to, which is much less than what which was allegedly "experienced" in the 1990s and 2000s -- not the "previous" figures that were driven by debt leverage expansion. 

The entire point of the policies of the Federal Government and Federal Reserve have been aimed toward refusing to recognize this mathematical reality and the economic outcome that must come from this adjustment.

The sooner we face reality the better the outcome will be.

But this is, and will remain, a relative term, for in comparison to the fraud-laced "prosperity" that was claimed for the 1990s and 2000s the factual economic output that is sustainable in real terms, less that fraud, is considerably lower than that which we previously "enjoyed" -- just as Wimpy could not have possibly maintained his corpulent status but for his scamming hamburgers via bogus promises to pay for them next Tuesday.

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User Info Pining For That Which Never Was in forum [Market-Ticker]
Agau
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The growth of the Free **** Army since the '30s is not conducive to a profitable economy
Sean
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This the second part (imo) of Karl's "reason for optimism" ticker.

- Sean

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
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Bertdilbert
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You cannot have a consumer driven economy, have the consumer max out on debt and then expect the economy to improve without the debt accumulated being resolved.

We have fought the battle for recovery by trying to keep the debt in place, throwing out more debt for the consumer to absorb in the form of student loans (presoaking the next batch of consumers). Student loans is just the pulling forward the demand of the next generation into the current economy.

When the students graduate, they will be entering the void of a pulled forward economy. Welcome to the Twilight Zone...

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Bagbalm
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This is like an old fashioned horse and wagon cartage company whose city slicker boss examines the books and decides to increase profits by cutting out spending for horse feed.
Seobook
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Too funny. Here's the perfect picture for this post ;)

I got the original artwork on eBay a few months back.

Here's another link on how the "success" of financialization & increasing leverage works out for consumers...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-....
"In London, the situation will be even more acute with the average deposit set to hit more than £110,000 in 2020. This is more money than would have been needed to buy a home in the capital in 1998 - but will soon just cover a small deposit on the same property."
Inline

Sparticlebrane
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Quote:
To make matters worse the government has dramatically raised the costs of hiring people. Obamacare, for example, has turned the employment world on its ear, especially when it comes to the lower end of the scale. How many 27-year-olds are about to get a nasty surprise when they are expelled from their parents' health insurance and find that (1) their own policy costs $5,000 a year, (2) their boss has cut them to 28 hours a week (from 40) because at 30 they must provide that insurance, a gross pay reduction of 30%, (3) at $15/hour (a pretty good starting wage) they're now grossing $21,000 a year and (4) they don't qualify for any sort of "assistance" as they make too much money, but roughly 1/4 of their gross, before taxes, must either be paid for that "insurance" or they get fined for not having it!

Sounds like they work for a ****ty company, and they should go find a better job at a company that values their employees a little more.

Also, based on a quick rate quote I just did with BCBS-NC, a 27-year old male can get a reasonable health insurance plan for ~$65-$120/month, disregarding dental insurance. A 27-year old female will end up paying more, even without dental or maternity coverage, but still -- $5,000 might be a bit excessive.

Harrisonact
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canada
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Ya know, this debt thing, it's worldwide.

I watched nothing much happen around me from 1995 or so on but the GDP of Canada went from $770bn to $1.4t in that same period.

All debt. Useless capital killing debt.

It has to be paid or written off. It's a binary choice.

That means we're ****ed. Or we aren't.

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Seobook
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"Sounds like they work for a ****ty company, and they should go find a better job at a company that values their employees a little more."

When I got started working for myself I didn't have health insurance for nearly a decade, because I couldn't afford it for the first 3 or 4 years & then by the time I could afford it I realized what a scam it was (as leading cause of bankruptcy in the US is health issues & most of those people had health insurance at the time). By next year I will probably have health insurance again. A person that I know pretty well has a bad credit profile for no reason other than getting sick nearly a decade ago...and they had health insurance when they got sick, but were quickly dropped.

If every employee has an embedded baseline cost not tied to their performance that is real money that they are not being paid directly in their wages. An employee can get say $20 an hour & health insurance, or $30 an hour without health insurance. Given the choice, many people (especially younger ones) would prefer not to have insurance. And as energy gets more expensive the problem of choosing A or B will only get worse.

Even if the employer values them tremendously, an increased friction at the beginning of the hiring & employment process adds friction to the economy & makes the economy less dynamic. Part of how Germany restructured their economy over the past decade or so was to make it easier to "taste test" employment & (as needed) fire people (for things like seasonal jobs and such).
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/09/1....

In the US of course it is still easy to hire and fire people, but it might not be particularly easy to go above that 28 hour threshold, especially for companies that have a business model built off the state subsidizing their employees (eg: Wal-Mart) or tiny companies where every penny counts.

Yaldor
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Stieglitz say: just borrow more

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/stiglitz-....

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Bertdilbert
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Quote:
Sounds like they work for a ****ty company, and they should go find a better job at a company that values their employees a little more.


Let me fix that for you...

Sounds like they work in a ****ty country, and they should go find a better job in a country that values their citizens a little more.

It is the country that is forcing the rules which result in ****ty employment conditions to which Karl speaks, in this case, the implementation of Obama Care.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Digitlman
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****ing ivory tower academics.

He and Krugman and all the other ilk can die in a fire.
Genesis
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Quote:
A person that I know pretty well has a bad credit profile for no reason other than getting sick nearly a decade ago...and they had health insurance when they got sick, but were quickly dropped.

That's not insurance.

He got sick while carrying the policy. All costs associated with being sick should have been covered if he had bought actual insurance, as the insured-against calamity occurred while he was insured.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ktrosper
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We're "Jonezin" for some cheap, easy credit!!!

Must... Get... One... More... Hit!

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Seobook
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Their issue was something with an ongoing treatment process. So the insurance company kept their half-decade of payments in, but after they became aware of the new establishment of problem x, they got the old boot.

Ultimately they ended up having to go to the 3rd world for healthcare ... which cost them only a fraction of what US insurance cost them & didn't damage their credit.
Genesis
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SEO: Doesn't matter.

Wreck your car, and everything related to the wreck is covered, even if you stop paying the next day for the car insurance. Same with a fire -- everything in your house is covered including all incidentals related to the fire (e.g. lodging until your house is fixed) because you were paying at the time of the calamity.

What's what insurance IS.

What's sold as "health insurance" is a fraud.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Grashopa
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Quote:

Sounds like they work for a ****ty company, and they should go find a better job at a company that values their employees a little more.


Valuing your employees has nothing to do with how much that employee brings in versus the cost of the employee.


Quote:

Also, based on a quick rate quote I just did with BCBS-NC, a 27-year old male can get a reasonable health insurance plan for ~$65-$120/month, disregarding dental insurance. A 27-year old female will end up paying more, even without dental or maternity coverage, but still -- $5,000 might be a bit excessive.


A 27 year old in NY would have to pay more than 10k a year in 2009. Today it would be 18k a year after the obamacare price hikes.

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Theft is evil
Genesis
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Must-issue and community rating have been in NY for a while.

That's what's going to be EVERYWHERE within the next 24 months.

Bend over; the problem is that the word "healthy" NO LONGER MATTERS and thus, for those who are, the price is going to the ****ing MOON.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Seobook
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"What's sold as "health insurance" is a fraud."
Agree with you 100% there Gen.

Eaglewwit
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My company paid insurance was 17k for a family of three. It was itemized on the W2.
Sparticlebrane
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Quote:
Valuing your employees has nothing to do with how much that employee brings in versus the cost of the employee.

Are you saying that employees who are cost centers and don't actively bring in revenue (admin, support staff, IT, etc) shouldn't get benefits that other employees who do bring in money might receive?

Flappingeagle
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My apologies before I ask.

Is the debt in that graph total debt or just Federal Government debt or what?

Thanks;

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
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Total.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Aquapura
Posts: 128
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Land of 10,000 taxes
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"In the US of course it is still easy to hire and fire people"

Depends on how you define easy. I'm a wage slave but my brother is a business owner. The stories I hear have ceased to amaze me. He was having issues with employee theft. Documented it, gave warnings, followed the state rules to the T. Fired said employee and he turned right around and filed for unemployment. All the documentation and hours of work he put into following the rules was for not, the state said the theif was owed UI.

Aside from him putting all his hourly staff at under 30 hours he's also become very selective in his hiring due to the expense of letting someone go. And this is unskilled work, i.e. warehouse guy filling boxes for FedEx.
Drkshapiro
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KD et al, there is a report by Sprott I think you might enjoy reading--it's a focus on the increasing amount of poor in this country, the drain of healthcare costs, and the economic effects at-large.

On the unemployment rate (and what they are saying is the new normal--that is, unlikely to go lower due to structural shifts) it states is around 14%--they use U6, which includes discouraged workers and those working part time against their will.

Then the article focuses on how much of America is now unemployed or poor and the effect this will have on discretionary spending, and therefore, on the economy at-large. Then they focus on healthcare costs and who will pay for them--here's the concluding statement:

"....about 60% of those costs (this is referring to health care--KS) are borne directly by households and the remaining 40% by the public sector (30% to Medicare and Medicaid). This means that households, of which the majority is either poor or in the declining middle class, will face an even larger squeeze in their discretionary spending....The impact of these issues on both government finances and future economic growth are enormous."

The link is here:
http://sprott.com/markets-at-a-glance/ig....

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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
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