Sometimes you just have to close your eyes and chant..... I want to believe!
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $10.0 billion or 4.6 percent to $230.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up seven of the last eight months, followed a 0.7 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.2 percent.
Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $8.1 billion or 11.9 percent to $75.9 billion.
Hmmm....
I want to look at the internals on this one. I'm particularly interested in the new orders figures and where they're coming from -- and where they're not.
Computers and related were basically flat at -0.5%. But communications now have three months of order increases. That's an important indication.
Machinery, not so much -- up 0.4% and falling off behind 1.8 and 3.5% -- in other words, deteriorating three months sequentially. That's not positive.
Transportation is where we find the huge uptick, most of it in aircraft -- non-defense up 10.1% (after a 12.9% decline last month) and defense up a massive 56.4% (after a -10.7% move last month.) Both of these are highly-volatile series and rarely tell you much.
Among non-itemized areas the figures were much more-modest, up 0.1% on shipments and 0.2% on orders, coming off a flat number last month. The three-month trend, however, is positive on new orders.
I find it interesting that defense capital goods were up 110% on the month for new orders in December. Given the impending sequester, was this pulled-forward ordering or is this all bullets and guns for DHS to use on Americans? (just kidding -- I think.)
