There Is Reason For Longer-Term Optimism
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-24 10:39
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
Ignore this thread
There Is Reason For Longer-Term Optimism
 

I can't go into details this morning about exactly why, or what.

But if you've followed me for any length of time at all you know that I have been extremely negative when it comes to our government budgetary process and the prospects for us to have a sustainable environment in that regard at any time in the reasonable future.

My opinion is now shifting toward positive, believe it or not.

I cannot go into exactly why.  All I can tell you at the present time is that there are a number of people in the US Senate who have "gotten it" for some time, and now it appears that this is spreading to The House.

Now I could easily be wrong, and if I am I'll say so as soon as I know.

But cautious optimism is now creeping into the pattern of activity, despite the short term debt-ceiling reprieve vote.

Sausage tastes good, but nobody wants to see how it's made. 

Sausage is being made.

Stay tuned.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info There Is Reason For Longer-Term Optimism in forum [Market-Ticker]
Fraudster
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Not*****ing on you, but the proof is always in the pudding. We have all heard this story, over and over.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Clintb350
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Southern AZ
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Do we still need to go through the equivalent of a depression before things turn?
Mistermagoo
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Banned
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Wow... would REALLY love to know the details on this one. You shouldn't tease us like this Gen!
Alsace
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Bear says: Come Get Some!
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Quote:
Do we still need to go through the equivalent of a depression before things turn?


The distortions must be corrected and yes that's gonna suck. There's no way we don't take our medicine. I think what Gen is referring to is the chance that we might be able to take it somewhat orderly.

Disorderly dislocations, at this point, could lead to really BIG SUCK.

Savingsaretheway
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Have you been drinking, Karl?
Fraudster
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Quote:
Do we still need to go through the equivalent of a depression before things turn?


Despite what anyone tells you, we will have to go through a very nasty depression.



And nobody knows how it will shake out given the extreme dislocations that exist throughout the entire economy. I am not optimistic no matter how it shakes out. I will just wait and see.

This ticker warrants a smiley from me, until I see some affirmative action. And no, I don't think Karl's optimism is warranted with the current dynamic in Washington, D.C.

Quote:
“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Onelegged
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Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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Perhaps if the Senate and House get permission from the banks they will enact some sort of superficial process to blow sunshine up the public's behind.

This is Missouri.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Geschrei
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Just going to have to trust your judgement on this one, Karl.

I frankly don't see how there could possibly be enough testicular fortitude (and willingness to commit career suicide) amongst the 535 members of the current Congress to actually do anything close to what I consider to be necessary to save this country from ruin.

But I'm an optimist at heart, so I'll just leave this here:

inline

ETA: I hope you are in the position to eventually name names of those who were willing to take responsible action, regardless of whether or not said action ever occurs. I'd appreciate knowing who up there is on 'our side'.

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“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.”

Lord Acton (1834 - 1902)

Genesis
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I have not been drinking.

I said REASON for optimism. It remains to be seen whether the reason is real.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
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Quote:
I frankly don't see how there could possibly be enough testicular fortitude (and willingness to commit career suicide) amongst the 535 members of the current Congress to actually do anything close to what I believe to be necessary to save this country from ruin.


How one can expect anything from a bought and paid for Congress is beyond me. Yeh, so people in the Senate "get it". So what? What have we seen out of the Senate but more of the same.

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Mo
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Nothing 'positive' is even possible with Obama in the presidency. If he doesn't get what he wants, he'll just executive order it.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Mcmwest
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Onelegged-Coincidence or purposefull reference to recent Michael Gayed column?

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According to NBER the recession ended in June 2009 so if you're broke and out of a job its all in your head.- Jay Leno
Alphaomega
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Bakersfield
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Perhaps the recent run up in gun purchases has Congress nervous?

Fear is a great motivator.

(somewhat tongue-in-cheek)
Bluebird
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It's the calm before the storm.

Isn't this how a Ponzi works, to get the last few hopeful suckers into the game, then POOF, it's gone.

Bertdilbert
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Well Karl, the only reason for optimism is if the Fed is saying no to further accommodation to the budget through bond purchases or is taking a firm stand on winding down purchases. Since congress is not going to act without external prodding, it would have to surround that.

Heh Karl, how close am I?

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Fraudster
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Quote:
Nothing 'positive' is even possible with Obama in the presidency.


This is a critical point.

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Genesis
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I'm sorry, but I cannot give details at this time.

All I can tell you is that it is not yet time to slit your wrists.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Wearedoomed
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Is Congress finally considering taking care of 80% of the problem?

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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Drkshapiro
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Anybody know the lithium concentration in Niceville tap water?

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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente
Genesis
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smiley

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
Posts: 4176
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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smiley

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Onelegged
Posts: 267
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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Mcm - Purely coincidence.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Mayorquimby
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Karl, you're giving us blue bear balls.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Bertdilbert
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Heh, I am calling my line of reasoning correct. It is not coming from Obama or congress. Invest in m makers of large pots n cots for the 3 hots and a cot program...

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
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