There is now a veritable flood of people on the "bubble vision" TV that are talking about the reality of leverage application and its un-sustainability.
Once something reaches mainstream media currency then it becomes a thing that can no longer be avoided -- or evaded.
Roughly six years into this for The Ticker we are finally seeing something approaching the recognition of reality.
"The level of spending (must come down to) the level of income."
Yep.
But... he's rather positive in the general sense as to the economy. Sorry, but you forgot to subtract that from GDP, and more-importantly, you also forgot what happens when bond yields start to back up and what this does to national budgets.
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Oh My, More Truth On CNBC?! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
New Jersey
If they are beginning to discuss this in any detail, then that probably indicates that the Collapse is starting now and their editors recognize that the delays, obfuscations , half truths and outright lies won't work anymore.
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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012
My oh my. Just days after the coronation and miraculously the fraud is being uncovered. How fortuitous to behold the next crisis. Where oh where is Superman?
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"...But whenever we see things done wildly, but taken tamely, then the State is growing insane..." - Gilbert Keith Chesterton 1910
"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008
this must be an omen, a sign, the clouds are parting and a bright light is delivering an angel with a trumpet to the main stage. ok, maybe the clarion call is pre-recorded, something on a chip in the iTrumpet written for the score of an apocalypse film that could not get distribution. maybe the angel has a suspicious resemblance to Jimmy Savile. is it a a very british last stand against europe or an all american cavalry charge chasing Japan over the cliff?
here in tokyo i know i am flummoxed. and flummoxery is the self induced cognitive defense against being unable to chart a route forward. if that chart applies to the usa position, and we agree it does, then ASO, former PM and now Finance Minister has already turned it into hemlock for our locals and a soylent green campaign can start with soy for lent.
if you have ever carried a pet bottle of water onto a plane and observed that, upon landing, your closed bottle as crunched, imploded, responded negatively to the trip up and down, then that consideration is an argument for deflation as our probable outcome.
but we know every ounce of ammunition up to and including tungsten futures will be expended to thwart nature.
i have, you might gather, difficulty in business and financial planning in these circumstances.
Exactly. Bond yield. Is there a chart of not just bond yield alone vs GDP growth but rather the total cost of debt servicing (i.e. bond yield multiplied by the total debt) vs GDP growth ?
This is what stretched the unsustainable: The low rates. This is what enabled the debt to balloon:
As rates came down (starting in 1992) the debt could rise without the cost of carrying the debt rising as fast.
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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .
For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Rd
Posts: 467
Incept: 2008-02-27
Long Island, NY
Online
He also laid out his four policy reactions to de-leverage this situation.
It appeared to me that he believes all four were being used and the last one was the Central Banks printing money into the economy. He seems very happy with this and said it saved Europe, they will still have ten years of the current depression but it saved them. He likes Japan doing the same thing.
Says this year is the transition year where people will move all the cash into the risk profile - stocks, commodities etc. The CB will create plenty of cash to move.
These guys want the party to continue, they want more money so the prices of the assets they hold will go up and they look like geniuses.
I think they are reading the CB right, the money will be printed regardless of the consequences.
I just see almost all the people around me struggling with the debt they have, some are losing their business and homes, but a few are making more money than ever.
To me the balance of wealth is just not right, we are heading towards the old South America way a few wealth the rest scrambling for the left overs.
The problem is these guys and the people in power are that they are way out of touch with the regular people, they got saved in 2009 and are making more than ever.
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
Germany wanting their gold back is not trivial.
I keep thinking the democrats want to take over congress. Their plan is to bailout the high spending and debt ridden states like Illinois and California.
The post office is still delivering on Saturdays and their broke.
The FSA and Obama's clan won't put up with any spending cuts. All the public unions still have Obama's ear because they'll claim they helped get him re-elected.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
If the gov't spends money that does not exist, debt, on "helping" people, the price for everyone goes up artifically, that creates more people that need help, creates more unaffordability.
It's really that simple: Anyone asking for unpaid benefits is asking for more unaffordability, while cloaking themselves in garments of caring and virtue, a completely false advocacy.
Primetime
Posts: 182
Incept: 2008-02-08
Sunny Isles Beach, FL
Politicians and media hacks can use clever wording to make things SOUND reasonable.
"The level of spending (must come down to) the level of income."
This does not mean "The level of spending must come down to the current level of income", it means that they must increase the current level of income! And what better way than to increase taxes?
...
And you say increasing taxes will slow the economy? Well then, we need to increase inflation and stimulus for our friends so they can pay the taxes. I see things going from bad to worse.
CNBC has been getting a little 'uppity' lately. The program director had better pull back hard on the leash if he doesn't want a knock on he door by a couple FCC goons carrying alligator skin briefcases.
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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935
Ray Dalio has not been all smiles about the leverage in the system for a while. Here he is at the Council on Foreign Relations in September. He got his deleveraging message out despite Maria Bartiromo.
This tells me that the administration knows its in serious trouble now. Bubble media tv is simply an arm of the executive office. If they start turning the corner and actually reporting this kind of stuff frequently, then they are probably being told to do so. To me this is scary.
A close friend who holds nearly every moronic liberal view, despite being smart (graduated with perfect grades as a physics major from a top five university) has been telling me for a year now that the debt doesn't matter since we can print at will; the low interest rates make it a non-problem and besides we're a reserve currency; stimulus "jump starts" an economy; we'll "grow out of it" later; blah blah, blah.
Then, about a week ago, he said that he thought that the debt was a big problem and that things would fall apart well before the end of Obama's term, and that in fact things would fall apart within the year!!!
WTF? Did they just change the Kool-Ade flavor over at the Huffington post?? To a flavor that tastes closer to real??
I can't believe that I convinced him. He does know a lot of really rich people, FWIW. But I don't think he talks about the economy with them.
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft.Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Someone with a degree in physics shouldn't need a calculator for that; that kind of math should be intuitively obvious to them.
-Uwe-
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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Someone with a college (or decent high-school level) physics CLASS -- just one -- shouldn't need a calculator for that.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft.Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Right. Of course you don't need to know much math. I never took calculus and I can still see it very easily.
I understand his former optimism, sort of. I presume he just doesn't want to think that the people in charge are corrupt psychopaths. And because the people running things are graduates from the sorts of schools that he respects, he thinks they *must* know what they're doing.
But why did he change his mind? That's what I don't get. He still thinks that Obama has "bad judgment", rather than being a corrupt autocrat. He still thinks Krugman earned his Nobel prize. So I presume he hasn't changed his view about how badly things are being run. He only seems to have changed his mind about the outcome. And his "within a year" view really weirded me out. Even I am susceptible to the bias that things will more or less continue.
Someone with a degree in physics shouldn't need a calculator for that; that kind of math should be intuitively obvious to them.
-Uwe-
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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
