McDonalds' -- Beats But Warns
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-23 08:13
by Karl Denninger
in Earnings
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McDonalds' -- Beats But Warns
 

Oops....

$1.38 .vs. $1.33, sales light a touch at $6.95 billion.

The problem is in expectations -- they are talking about January comps coming in negative, which is not something that usually happens with The Mickey D.

It seems that The Squeeze is indeed on; again, what I think everyone needs to be thinking about is forward guidance, not necessarily results.

What we keep seeing in the forward indicators are numbers that strongly imply at best flat economic conditions.  The regional Fed surveys point to this repeatedly, yet nobody thinks this is a big deal, and of course this means that prices should go up for stocks.

But contemplate this: If The Fed is standing on the gas pedal and yet there is no traction of materiality being gained, what is really happening? 

That's not hard to figure out -- all of this deficit spending, which is what The Fed is enabling and shoving into the economy, is in fact false demand that doesn't exist in the economy as a whole.

The idea that one should "jump start" the economy is a common chestnut, but we should be instead contemplating whether the previous 30+ years of economic patterns are reasonable -- and sustainable.  The answer is "No" -- this "economic progress" has in fact come through debt accumulation that has surpassed improvements in economic output.

This is by definition a pyramid scheme since a percentage change on an ongoing basis must become evermore larger as time goes on.

The basic exponential curve is a mathematical expression that you can't change.

Even if you're McDonalds'.

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User Info McDonalds' -- Beats But Warns in forum [Market-Ticker]
Yayankee
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The displacements in the economy are appearing in more sections of the economy all the time. The breakdowns are right in front of our eyes. Slowly at first but will become a gusher later on. How MSFT can invest in a manufacturer of PCs seems to me at least, as only protecting their turf and doing nothing to enhance shareholder value. At least INTC is trying to come up with disrupting technology.
Ptoemmes
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Yeah, but I been watchin' and listenen' to the releases and analysis of some of the majors: CAT, IBM, GOOG among others and in - I believe - all cases they seem to meet or beat all metrics and warn about upcoming. True, below the headlines speaks to more truth (as is pointed out here by many) and - OK - there is a short term impact on PPS.

But, isn't that just mostly setting up (lowering) expectations for a meet-beat next go around?

I realize that is the way it is and has always been but it's long past tiresome. I mean who are they trying to influence - a bunch of freaking trading computers?!

Maybe I am just impatient that the wall has not been hit yet.

Trades50
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Quote:
isn't that just mostly setting up (lowering) expectations for a meet-beat next go around?


Companies and analyst have known the game for the years. Lowered expectations and then beat. Then announce it as a big deal.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Jonesapple10
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Maybe people are waking up to the fact that having hamburgers and french fries everyday destroys your health?
Sean
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Quote:
Maybe people are waking up to the fact that having hamburgers and french fries everyday destroys your health?


Not where I work! smiley

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Crzymorse
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You really have to trend the data over a couple years and look at free cash flow. The rest of it is show pony stuff with plenty of noise to distract from underlying fundamentals. It seems everybody has recurring quarterly one time quarterly charges and GAAP vs. Non-GAAP reporting.
Crzymorse
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"Globally, however, sales at restaurants open at least a year rose just 0.1 percent for the period. That's an important measurement of a restaurant chain's performance."

As you can see the senior management massaged just enough data to get a 0.1% increase (y/y increase) in sales.


Ktrosper
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heh.

Consider that their overseas sales account for 70%+ percent of their total sales (that was as of 2011, might be more now)...

The continued weakening of the USD vs foreign currencies has been giving their "profits" a nice boost on paper - once they are repatriated.

Do the math and you quickly realize that this "beat" is phantom and probably becomes a "met".

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
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Mortgageguymn
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They better switch to a lower grade of feline. They could get it from whoever supplies White Castle.
Smacktle
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Somebody had a Bday party for their kid at McNasty and they invited my son. Since the party was around dinner time I decided to have a burger. They gave me the damn thing and it was COLD! McDonalds sucks!

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Crzymorse
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Read between the lines, January is going to weak because we stuffed the inventory freezers of some of the franchises in December to hit the numbers.

Goal - Time to find a one time charge next quarter to clean it all up, maybe layoff some need some poor unsuspecting middle managers to generate the charge.




Pika-steph
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It'll be written off if this occurs...they'll say that people are just eating healthier.

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Grunwald
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That is why inflation is here. I don't care what the official numbers are give, they are lies. I went out last night and thought about buying some Levi jeans at Sears. Holly crap - I think the sale price was $50, the regular price was higher and I blocked out of my mind.
On top of that they shifted production to Mexico some years ago, so should not that keep the prices lower?

Of course I see this weekly during my trips to the grocery store. Many of the foods I buy are up 20 plus percent over the last few years.

Antediluvian
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I've said this before but it took 16 years to double the deficit in the 90's to from 4 to 8 trillion and it took 8 years since 2004 to double to 16 trillion. That is, we need exponential debt growth just to get the miserable, ****ty, stagnate economy we have today. So it won't be surprising that our balance sheet goes way above 16 trillion in the next for years. It has to. What would an American economy look like with no debt increase? We are toast.

smiley



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Anti
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Grunwald, My husband bought three pairs of jeans last year for the first time in decades. The Levis that were the famous model number he remembered were the worst and most expensive; the material was very thin. Wranglers were very good and made in USA I think, mid-price. Costco Kirkland seemed the best and were the least expensive - pretty sure those were made overseas but not red china.

ETA - from which I concluded that Levi is yet another brand "mining" its brand name - using its reputation won over decades to gain outsized profits for a season. Probably bonused out some nice change to the exec's who made those decisions.

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Jackl
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Quote:
Maybe people are waking up to the fact that having hamburgers and french fries everyday destroys your health?


Portions are served smaller, and cost/prices continue to rise.

It isn't the hamburgers and french fries that are the problem per say. But the liberal use of wheat and sugar as meal fillers.
Mannfm11
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Could be the MCD customers are starting to buy a box of tea, some hamburger helper and eat at home instead of spending $20 at MCD for a hamburger with a patty the size of a silver dollar, 20 cents worth of potatos, a coke and tax for 4 people. For kids over 10 or so, you can't eat for $5 each. The other meal costs about $10 and a little time, difference of $3500 a year. The charge cards don't work any more for many of the customers.

In other news, I note that over 100% of the gain in the Dow is IBM.

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Steelpiston71
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I think some McDonalds began taking EBT this year? If so, would those sales be counted in the 6.95 B?

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Ktrosper
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Steel wrote..
I think some McDonalds began taking EBT this year? If so, would those sales be counted in the 6.95 B?

Are you ****ting me?

As for counting EBT transactions. Yep, sales is sales, they could care less who's payin...

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
End_the_bubbles
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Actually, MCD has been taking EBT cards for well over a year! And yes, of course they count as sales!

EBT use has propped the cost of all foods throughout the country. If all of them stopped working tomorrow, within a week, sales would collapse and prices would drop quite significantly.......

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.

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Phxkevin
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Jeans: Costco Kirkland jeans are great, at about 1/5th the cost of Levis.

I was under the impression that you could not use EBT funds for prepared foods. I'm wrong.

Obesity means big business for some http://abcnews.go.com/Health/hospitals-c....

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Djloche
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If MCD licenses those burger making robots, they'll have a huge surplus.

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Kareninca
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McDonalds' hamburgers are both good for the environment and suitable for vegans and vegetarians. I know this because my father showed me the innards of one a few years ago, and the amount of "beef" in it was microscopic. Anyone who cooked a burger at home would surely use at least four times as much beef, and it might actually in that case come from a cow. Rah rah McDonald's!!!!
Jack_crabb
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This is what happens when you attempt to cater to the whim of every minority group. You mess with the bull you're gonna get the horn. Serves you right, McDonalds for trying to appease the musloids (thanks for the word Ann Barnhardt).

http://money.msn.com/business-news/artic....

Quote:
McDonald's settles Mich. suit over Islamic diet
January 21, 2013 8:30 PM ET
By JEFF KAROUB


DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) - McDonald's and one of its franchise owners agreed to pay $700,000 to members of the Muslim community to settle allegations a Detroit-area restaurant falsely advertised its food as being prepared according to Islamic dietary law.

McDonald's and Finley's Management Co. agreed Friday to the tentative settlement, with that money to be shared by Dearborn Heights resident Ahmed Ahmed, a Detroit health clinic, the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn and lawyers.

Ahmed's attorney, Kassem Dakhlallah, told The Associated Press on Monday that he's "thrilled" with the preliminary deal that's expected to be finalized March 1. McDonald's and Finley's Management deny any liability but say the settlement is in their best interests.

The lawsuit alleged that Ahmed bought a chicken sandwich in September 2011 at a Dearborn McDonald's but found it wasn't halal — meaning it didn't meet Islamic requirements for preparing food. Islam forbids consumption of pork, and God's name must be invoked before an animal providing meat for consumption is slaughtered.

Dakhlallah said there are only two McDonald's in the United States that sell halal products and both are in Dearborn, which has one of the nation's largest Arab and Muslim communities. Overall, the Detroit area is home to about 150,000 Muslims of many different ethnicities.

The locations advertise that they exclusively sell halal Chicken McNuggets and McChicken sandwiches and they have to get those products from an approved halal provider, Dakhlallah said. He said there was no evidence of problems on the production side, but he alleges that the Dearborn location on Ford Road sold non-halal products when it ran out of halal.


Dakhlallah said he was approached by Ahmed, and they conducted an investigation. A letter sent to McDonald's Corp. and Finley's Management by Dakhlallah's firm said Ahmed had "confirmed from a source familiar with the inventory" that the restaurant had sold non-halal food "on many occasions."

After they received no response to the letter, Dakhlallah said, they filed a lawsuit in Wayne County Circuit Court in November 2011 as part of a class action.

The AP left messages Monday afternoon for attorneys representing the corporation and the franchise.

In the settlement notice, Finley's Management said it "has a carefully designed system for preparing and serving halal such that halal chicken products are labeled, stored, refrigerated, and cooked in halal-only areas." The company added it trains its employees on preparing halal food and "requires strict adherence to the process."

He said although Ahmed believes McDonald's was negligent, there was no evidence that the chain set out to deceive customers.

"McDonald's from the very beginning stepped up and took this case very seriously," Dakhlallah said. "They made it clear they wanted to resolve this. They got ahead of the problem."

The lawsuit covers anyone who bought the halal-advertised products from the Ford Road restaurant and another Dearborn McDonald's with a different owner between September 2005 and last Friday. Since that would be impossible to determine, Dakhlallah said both sides agreed to provide money to community-based charities that benefit members of this group.

The other location on Michigan Avenue wasn't a defendant or a focus of the investigation, Dakhlallah said.

He said the final hearing will ultimately determine who gets what and how much, but roughly $275,000 is expected to go to the Huda Clinic, about $150,000 to the museum, $230,000 to attorneys and $20,000 to Ahmed.

Dakhlallah said he believes it's the first lawsuit of its kind related to McDonald's and halal food.

In 2002, McDonald's agreed to donate $10 million to Hindu and other groups in the U.S. to settle lawsuits that accused the chain of mislabeling french fries and hash browns as vegetarian. The vegetable oil used to prepare the items had contained traces of beef for flavoring purposes.

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