Richmond Fed: -12
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-22 10:36
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
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Richmond Fed: -12
 

The negative signals are continuing to come in.... and accelerate.

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region declined in January following two months of modest expansion, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Nearly all broad indicators of activity fell into negative territory. Other indicators also suggested additional softness. Capacity utilization turned negative as did the gauge for delivery times, while backlogs continued its downward trend. In addition, finished goods inventories grew at a slightly quicker pace.

To the point the index itself plunged to -12 from +5 with shipments dropping to -11 (from +6), new orders collapsing to -17 (from +10), backlog to -19 (from -11), capacity utilization went down the toilet at -18 (from +3) and both employees and workweek moved further into negative territory.

Worse, prices paid increased to 2.54 from 2.01 while received prices move to 0.85 from 1.57, a marked deterioration.

There is no good news in this report; the forward expectations (six months out) are IMHO in fantasy land.  I wouldn't take a bet on those panning out at 5:1 odds.

The Service Report was a bit more of a mixed bag.  Revenues went positive, which is good.  Employees were flat, from -12, so at least the bleeding stopped.  But in retail while the trend was positive the dispersion indices were all still below zero except for inventories which went higher (and that's bad, not good) and shopper traffic which showed a modest +4 (from -18)

Service firm indicators were more-positive, with employees, wages and revenues all turning the corner.  For now.

It's interesting that the service sector price expectations are positive except in retail.  That's a worrying indication for consumer final demand -- if it bears out.

The bottom line is that Richmond rounds out the Fed indices that I follow, and like the other regional surveys the December optimism appears to have been misplaced.  We enter the new year with a negative bias, particularly in manufacturing, and retail sales are not much better.

Forward expectations should be tempered here; the last six months of numbers are consistent with an economy that is fluttering around the zero line -- not one that is accelerating.  I note that "fluttering around the zero line" is consistent, in the last couple of decades, with what is later declared as a formal recession.

Here it comes.

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User Info Richmond Fed: -12 in forum [Market-Ticker]
Digitlman
Posts: 330
Incept: 2011-03-04

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"Here it comes".

"It" is not coming, because the Fed will do anything it needs to, legal or otherwise, to keep the correction from happening.

See: Japan.
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
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Digitlman - you are presuming that the Fed has the power to prevent the correction. Over the short term and maybe into the medium term you are correct. Over the long term (5 or more years) - no way.

They are trying to do the impossible to indefinitely delay the inevitable.

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Trades50
Posts: 4215
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Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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Who do you think advises Japan? Bernanke and our Fed?

First they implode, then the US?

The market still seems to have little downside though.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Zappafan
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Green
Atlanta
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One thing I haven't heard much talk about in the press is the effect of the IRS delaying tax processing by one week. They aren't going to even start until January 30th.

That means nobody is getting their refund check until probably mid February at the earliest.

Combined with the payroll tax reverting to normal, that has to leave a mark on Chucky's fat iPad lovin' ass.

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The alternative to not borrowing from a counterfeiting cartel is to be priced
out by those who do
Digitlman
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Stonedog: We shall see, eh? I have been expecting the collapse for the last year, and each time, the Fed steps in and does something to postpone it now, at the expense of the future.

Stonedog
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Digitlman - No doubt that they've been able to postpone it up until now. IMO, the Fed has used their last bullet and all they have left is a water pistol that they are trying to convince everyone is an RPG.

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit

Reason: add comment
Apotheoun
Posts: 1283
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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I got a feeling this is going to be a year remembered for a long time in history. some of my sources are giving some big warning (but without detail)

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Jstanley01
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Sort of like how the stock market is fluttering around it's 52 week high.
Inline

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Pubstar
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Johnstown, Ohio
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Yea...but Obama gave a speech yesterday. All is well!!!
Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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This could only mean ONE thing...

inline

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Docj
Posts: 998
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Silver
Duck & Cover
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Meanwhile, looks like Egan-Jones is in trouble for their proclamation of the Emperor's obvious lack of clothing...

@zerohedge EGAN-JONES BARRED FROM RATING ABS, GOVTS FOR 18-MOS IN SEC PACT. No one dare mention the rating of the US

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams

Digitlman
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-22....

More horse**** from the Fed. We can avoid a credit downgrade by barring a rating firm from rating the US for a period of time.

Trades50
Posts: 4215
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Land of Tax and Spend
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Quote:
More horse**** from the Fed. We can avoid a credit downgrade by barring a rating firm from rating the US for a period of time.


When the US government starts pulling this crap it's over.

There is no rehabilitation.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Crzymorse
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Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Advice to Phil Mickelson stop listening to El Rushbo. Thank Hank Paulson, Bush and Obama for saving your net wealth and shielding you from a real free competitive market. You have been spotted two shots a hole over the middle class, take your complaints some where else.
Mrbill
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Gold
North Carolina
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Go get em Phil. Tell the middle class to stop putting ****ers like Obama, Paulson and Bush in charge if they want a fair shake.
Smacktle
Posts: 1362
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Texas
Online
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They sure got to Phil quick. Wonder what they told him?

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Apotheoun
Posts: 1283
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Gold
MN
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wow, they barred jones huh... things have just been escalated.

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Marcustullius
Posts: 202
Incept: 2010-06-12

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DocJ wrote..
Meanwhile, looks like Egan-Jones is in trouble for their proclamation of the Emperor's obvious lack of clothing...

@zerohedge EGAN-JONES BARRED FROM RATING ABS, GOVTS FOR 18-MOS IN SEC PACT. No one dare mention the rating of the US


Hmmmm. Is there not a rating agency in China, these days? One which has already had some critical things to say about U.S sovereign debt, perhaps 12-18 months ago?

Tully

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"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." (Samuel Adams)
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