Is RIMM Sandbagging?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-09 17:24
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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Is RIMM Sandbagging?
 

I'm starting to wonder.

No official presence to speak of at CES, despite an end-of-January launch for BB10.

But..... a handset has been spotted at the show "in the wild", presumably in the hands of one of the developers who has one.  It allegedly isn't running final code, but it looks pretty nice.

There are multiple reports of both widespread emulation and near-automatic porting for Android apps.  The sandbox capability is not new; I have agitated for making that "officially support" for well over a year.  A quick-porting capability, however, would be interesting.  Allegedly porting IOS (apple) apps is easy too.

Then there's this:

Research In Motion’s plans for its new BlackBerry 10 operating system extend well beyond the two handsets the company intends to roll out later this month. RIM’s leadership intends to launch a bevy of handsets in the coming year, targeting a number of price points.

Six handsets this year?  Hmmm...... now that is interesting.  And with no exclusivity given up by RIMM, which is also being reported, the ability to maneuver looks pretty good too.

I want one of these to play with before passing judgment, but one of the other whispers I'm hearing is literal all-day battery life.  I've often spoken of the inherent power management advantage in a tight kernel designed for this sort of us (which QNX is) -- if RIMM has delivered on that capability, oh boy -- this is something none of the other phones in the market right now can do competently.

So exactly what do you have under that Kimono Mr. Heins?

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Delphis
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Interesting pull back today? What do you think the incubation time for news of this sort is in the price? Buy the rumour, sell the news does not seem in play here...I have been enamoured with RIMM for years, and would love to see them hit a homerun!

Disclosure: I have position(s) in this security.

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Alchemista2
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It's too late to gain back significant market share from Android and iPhone. They can maybe win back / preserve some of their market share, but the game's over for RIM in the big leagues. Adding a few hours battery life isn't sufficient to make people change their ecosystems.

And, if they can run Android apps, what more value prop is there for a BlackBerry over one of the other popular Android phones out there (especially if they don't market it as an Android phone)? Needs to be something much more to win people back.
Jstanley01
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I hear ya, Al. To force people to change their ecosystem, you've gotta be Microsoft (see Windows 8).

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Ckaminski
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And even that is losing it's power every single generation. Windows 8 may be the death knell for Microsoft domination.

I wouldn't count RIMM down - the phone market is finicky. Palm was once top of the smartphone heap and Nokia top of the phone heap. Every two years, the winds have an opportunity to change.
Fangz
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Never recall an issue with RIMM battery life and was a heavy user for a few years. When you have no apps, never use it for the Internet and only use it for email, it's not your problem. I can't see anyone changing because of that now as it already beats my android devices by a wide margin.
Alchemista2
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Fangz - KD is saying that the new BB may have extended battery life which would differentiate it from most current popular phones. Even if that happened, I don't think it's a big enough feature to win a lot of new people over.
Genesis
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Wait until you see the browser.

Oh hell, just grab a playbook for 15 minutes. That IS the browser.

Seriously, I have one. It makes everything else in the smartphone market look like absolute ****.

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Nuke_engineer
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Not sandbagging........they are making sure it will be perfect and a real surprise.

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Fraudster
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Please, oh please, someone knock Apple off.

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Beango
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I wouldnt doubt the impressive battery life rumor. Ive also heard a rumor of almost instant bootup, which would coincide with the the extensive battery life.

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Highonlife
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A couple of comments Gen:

1) That device is the Dev Alpha B (yes, i laugh at that name too). Its been out for some time. That is just being given to developers. The actual device (based on leaks) is much nicer.

2) Boot ups have been confirmed to be under a minute.

This definitely is looking interesting
Grunwald
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I agree with Gen on the browser. I have an Android tablet and keep trying new browsers every so often because they all suck (some more than others). My girlfriend has a Playbook and the browser is much better. The UI is much better all around.
When it comes to phones and tablets there is always the possibility for any player to rise to the top.
Apple got big thanks to a brilliant marketing campain that highlighted a big flaw in their phone and turned it into a selling point - "there's an app for that".
The reason they had apps for everything is because their retarded browser could not render a lot of websites so they needed an app to access them. Mostly because Jobs hated Flash and most websites used it.
Timbo
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I'd consider counter-evidence, but it's seemed to me for some while that Chrome is kicking every other (desktop and mobile) browser's ass up and down the street.

Like: my open tabs here at the desk are transparently available in my $200 handheld device, and vice-versa. I don't know if that constitutes a killer feature in the mass market, but I sure wanted it, and there it is.


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Zone5
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My RAZR Maxx has a 3300 mAh battery and lasts me a full two days with normal use. If I surf the internet very heavily it will still last the day no problem.
Ampsucker
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my current blackberry (8350e?)has a battery life easily of 5 days to a week of phone use only. if i turn on bluetooth and wifi, it drops to half that. mostly use it for phone and text and occasionally check the weather.

oh, it's 4 years old and still on the original battery. screen and web browser suck on this model but it has full (tiny) keyboard.

just saying, RIMM has had the battery right for awhile now.

desktop sync is pain in the ass bloatware and newer versions have not significantly improved this. it has crashed and had to be reloaded several times and i don't even use it anymore.

i hope they get it right this time around as i'll probably end up with a new phone this year and US cellular (what's left of them that didn't get bought out) don't offer many smartphones outside of the RIM sphere.
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Playbook browsing sucks ****, precious few sites load quickly and without error messages. However, if i want to know if it is the internet or the browser I'll hit refresh on market-ticker.org because the shmuck who designed the back end clearly knows his **** ;p

Seriously, I'm waiting on bb10 for playbook and it had better be a quantum leap in browser simplicity otherwise the hammer comes out and the thing is gonna get smashed to bits.

Ymmv, karl says it is good...i have not had the positive experience i was desperately hoping for with the playbook.

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Aquapura
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"Please, oh please, someone knock Apple off."

It's a matter of time. Just to stay in the news they're hyping a dumbed down "cheap" iPhone?!? I've always said that I vastly prefer my WP7 to my work issued iPhone. For enterprise use the iPhone isn't very good and I've always thought it was more of a toy and fashion statement for Gen Y. I wasn't a fan of my old BB but call me strange, I didn't like the tiny buttons on the qwerty keyboard. I know Windows is having issues with the uptake on their system but around the office I've got more co-workers with the WP8 than the iPhone5. Point is, people will change if the product is decent and the price is right. Most the the iPhone faithful I know are balking at the 5 due to price. Most have an "I'll wait a year" attitude. A year is a long time in technology, anything can happen.
Otiswild
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Meh, a corporation as wounded as RIMM would have to do something 6-7 Sigma spectacular to get out of the hole it dug itself into. I'm betting it'll be about as successful as Atari was with their Jaguar console vs Playstation.

(got a Galaxy Note II coming tomorrow to replace my screen-shattered and LCD-wonky fragile Galaxy Nexus..)
Nuke_engineer
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Let's not forget where Apple was a few years ago.....almost at the point of extinction according to many industry pundits at the time.

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Ckaminski
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Quote:
Meh, a corporation as wounded as RIMM would have to do something 6-7 Sigma spectacular


Oh, like Apple was in 1997?

Short memories around here...

;-)
Nuke_engineer
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Interesting Article

CES staff at show using Blackberries like crazy! Good stealth marketing.

http://blogs.cio.com/blackberry/17681/bl....

DMCA Approved Excerpt

Quote:
BlackBerrys are Everywhere at CES 2013 (Seriously)

This week's International CES 2013 in Las Vegas is packed with BlackBerrys, but it's not really the attendees who are using them—it's the CES staffers, vendors and booth attendants on the tradeshow floor.


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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.
T_wheeler
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I'd like to see RIMM come back, the world could use (and certainly has room for) more than two and a half platforms for mobile development. And I don't know what kind of engineering talent RIMM has been able to keep, but certainly with QNX as a base they can build a great system.

One thing I do look at with suspicion is the reported "near-automatic" porting of apps. That sort of thing has been a bit of a Holy Grail for a long time, and one that has yet to be found. I suspect there will be quite a difference between how press releases describe this and how an average software developer sees it.

But I hope they come out with a great platform; and kudos to Karl for keeping an eye on them.

Thomas
Genesis
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T, yep. As a software and network guy I'm well-aware of that... ;-)

We shall see....

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Otiswild
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Quote:
Oh, like Apple was in 1997?


If Thorsten Heins is as good a CEO and 'inspiration' to RIMM as Steve Jobs was to AAPL, I'll eat my words. It'll be at least 4-5 years before we find out, though.
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