Consumer Credit November: Oh Oh...
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-08 16:10
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
Ignore this thread
Consumer Credit November: Oh Oh...
 

Uh, this is foreshadowing a nasty Christmas sales season....

Release Date*: January 8, 2013

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9-1/2 percent.

Yuck.

Let me guess -- all the expansion was in student loans -- again?

Ah, not quite.  There was still some expansion in car loans too.  How nice.

But, Junior is still being bent over the table; the spread between the red and green lines continues to impress (and increase.)

Say thanks to your local University Provost.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Consumer Credit November: Oh Oh... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Deckchairs
Posts: 96
Incept: 2012-07-06

The Slightly lessDemocrat -IC People's Rebuplic of Las
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Funny spoke to a college friend of mine who is now working on his dissertation while his wife is on sabbatical already at Dartmouth after a few short years teaching.

Every time I try and point out that there's a student loan bubble and that things like taxpayer subsidized seminars on Asian American Comic books might not be a very productive use of resources every single argument replied is one of moral relativism. "So I guess everyone should be a business major" and "I guess nothing else in life is worth studying." "We produce a lot of finance majors and they have the highest average starting wage of any college"

There is no arguing with these people. I guess that quote about getting someone to see something that they're job depends on them not seeing is really apt.

There are too many people who live well at the taxpayers largesse for the status quo to change at all until things finally up and collapse.



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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1187
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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The revolving line is flatline dead. Home equity extraction (MEW) is probably dead too. Autos have done better than I expected, of course the financing is dirt cheap and car prices may have even come down from four or five years ago.

I expect the Fed to starting buying student loan debt as it turns sour (of course at par). I think additional monetary debasement is on tap through the fed balance sheet as Bernanke is an academic. There are a whole lot of big salaries being propped up right now in medicine and academics at the expense of everybody else. So you get to pay more and well as get debased.
Crzymorse
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Thats alright Deckchair, I had a college roommate whose career path turned him into to an academic. We recently went out for a beer after ten years of going our own way. He was under the impression that businesses were obligated to hire employees. Somehow I was put on the planet and risked a bunch of capital for the sheer purpose of hiring college students. Next time I see him I going to tell him I opened a stripbar and send some resumes.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1187
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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One final thought for the next couple hours. If revolving credit hasn't changed for a year now and online purchases increased y/y according to retail data. Wouldn't that mean the bricks and mortar stores really had to take in the ass this holiday season.

Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1562
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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Of course it's the professors, administrators and contractors who build student centers who are living well at taxpayer largesse. The students (and their parents) just get the debt. I'm telling you, the only way we fix this is working this angle:

"We need to end the exclusion for student loans in bankrupcy law." That way you might get a Sherrod Brown or Elizabeth Warren to join forces with a Tom Coburn to get it changed. The lefties would do it to be "nice" and "fair" while a Republican might do it if they understood that it'd pop the bubble (unlikely).

The tougher part is getting the government out of the student loan business first. Otherwise they'll keep handing out student loans with the knowledge that they'll either be discharged in bankruptcy or through some forgiveness scheme - all aimed at buying votes, of course.

Reason: finished up
Supertruckertom
Posts: 215
Incept: 2010-11-07
Green
USA
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There are quite a few clubs in ATL located right within walking distance of GA Tech.
I have have joked about dancers all being Physics majors working their way through school.
Around there it could be true.

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What I do is fairly simple.
People need their stuff.
It is my job to get it to them.
Ghopper
Posts: 2302
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The tax payers will be paying the student loan debt.
Just not the ones who got the schooling.
Lowbeyond
Posts: 16868
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CO aka West NJ/East CA
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wonder what the december #s will show due to Gun-Pocalypse-A-Looza 2012 !

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Lightning
Posts: 9
Incept: 2012-12-18

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Thank you Genesis for the tickers and for all of you who comment on them. As someone who is trying to understand the financial world and the mess we are in you all have been priceless. I have tried to pay it forward when I can. Regarding the topic of this ticker and me paying it forward I have a question about something I received via email. It stated that members of congress and their families do not have to repay student loans. Is that true? I know they exempt themselves from many things, but is this email accurate? I know it is true regarding healthcare, but this was the first time I heard that they didn't pay back loans.
Genesis
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Reference please.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Deckchairs
Posts: 96
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@Lightning and Karl - Saw someone had that as a status update on Facebook but I have yet to see any authority yet for the statement whatsoever.

It wouldn't surprise me either way at this point but such bold statements do need to be backed up by some evidence beyond blanket assertions.

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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Deckchairs
Posts: 96
Incept: 2012-07-06

The Slightly lessDemocrat -IC People's Rebuplic of Las
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Quote:
Q: Is it true that members of Congress, their staffers and their family members do not have to pay back their student loans?

A: Not true. Some congressional employees are eligible to have up to $60,000 of student loans repaid after several years — just like other federal workers. But that’s not the case for members of Congress or their families.


http://www.factcheck.org/2011/01/congres....

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If I could just get my tax attorney to be my girlfriend life would be all right.
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10319
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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Without bad debt to Monetize the Government would lijkely be forced to choose amongst performing debt to have something to Monetize.

Now, how the hell is that gonna work?!

Money has to be pumped into the Economy somehow or the Productivity and Ingenuity of the Citizenry could not be efficiently and effectively stolen and sequestered from Their use and enjoyment by the Monetary Authority...


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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Noodleman
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Oh, the taxpayers will get an education too. They will get home-schooled on April 15. How to bend over and bite down hard on a corncob to save your lower lips and tongues.

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Crzymorse
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I'll take a guess.... Noodleman has been subject to the AMT without proper lubrication.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2655
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CA
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If you work for government all you have to do is make the minimum payment on the student loan and it is forgiven after 10 years. I call it a union perk.

Naturally all your employees will have one foot out the door to get on the government bandwagon. Which means you will be stuck with new hires and having to retrain employees for the ones that left.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Aztrader
Posts: 6648
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Green
Scottsdale, AZ
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All these in debt drones will do as they are told when the time comes. There has to be an endgame with issuing all this unforgivable debt. We now know that a lot of the money spent from student loans, doesn't go to tuition, but to everything else that pumps the economy.
We already see a high unemployment rate for younger people and this is the easiest way for them to survive.
This will implode and you don't want to be part of the landslide........
Sean
Posts: 1765
Incept: 2009-04-21

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Quote:
expansion in car loans too


No doubt this is Drive Time.

I interviewed for them 1.5 years ago.

There business model is based on sub-prime car loans - I said no thank you.

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
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Green
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Genesis wrote..
There was still some expansion in car loans too. How nice.
Yep.
Doug Noland wrote..

As a “Bubble economy,” I view the U.S. situation as also highly uncertain. With astounding monetary policy largess and attendant loose financial conditions, I do not dismiss the scenario where the U.S. recovery gains momentum. Housing and autos are in a cyclical upturn, which should support accelerating private-sector Credit growth. So long as corporate Credit conditions remain ultra-loose, the slow but steady increase in employment should continue. Unrelenting fiscal stimulus continues to bolster consumption. And, importantly, inflating assets markets continue to support household spending.

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/cre....

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Aztrader
Posts: 6648
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BI had these blaring headlines on how consumer credit destroyed the estimates and now..............It's gone. What happened? Did they actually read it and find out exactly what Karl did? The propaganda machine is getting rusty and starting to show leaks.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3536
Incept: 2009-02-28
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DFW, Tx
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I think they call that crony socialism. Just think of the tens of billions going into education pimps pockets. Competitive education and medicine would probably save the US economy $500 billion or more in a couple of years and trend would be even greater. That would be bad for the banks and bureaucrats though.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Drkshapiro
Posts: 630
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Gold
Southern CA
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How about teaching the younger folks something about getting a return on the investment. Take a look at the #'s below. Earlier in the week the WSJ had a piece on MBAs and starting salaries; of the ones getting jobs the salary with a masters the average is: ~50k/year. These are the top 10 degrees for undergrads:
1 . Business Administration and Management, General 129,686
2 . Psychology, General 93,886
3 . Nursing / Registered Nurse (RN, ASN, BSN, MSN) 68,759
4 . Biology / Biological Sciences, General 57,557
5. Accounting 46,510
6 . English Language and Literature, General, 44,938
7 . Political Science and Government, General 42,859
8 . Elementary Education and Teachingm 42,212
9 . Finance, General, 37,488
10 . History, General 37,436


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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
Antone
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Wow, Computer Science isn't in the top ten? These kids must be a bunch of morons.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 630
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Antone, CS is hard, don't you know that.

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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
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