Richmond Fed: +5 (Down 4)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-26 10:38
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Richmond Fed: +5 (Down 4)
 

Meh....

In December, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity—our broadest measure of manufacturing—lost four points, settling at 5 from November’s reading of 9. Among the index’s components, shipments fell five points to 6, the gauge for new orders was almost unchanged at 10, and the jobs index turned negative, losing six points to -3.

Nothing here that's good. November's surprise positive read is now bleeding off, and the awful is found in the employees and workweek, both of which turned negative. 

In addition backlog is flat on its back, which means that nobody is ordering back anything they don't need right now -- there is no backlog.

The short version here is that manufacturers are expecting fairly severe economic contraction in the coming months, no matter what they say -- this is what they're doing.

It's even worse in the service sector:

Retail sales dropped in December, dragging November’s index down twenty-seven points to a reading of -13. The index for shopper traffic also dropped into negative territory, ending at -18, following November’s 23. Furthermore, big-ticket sales withered, pulling that index down seventeen points to -31 this month. Retail inventories rose slightly, with the index at 6 following last month’s reading of -1. Merchants expected a weak market in the first half of the new year. The index for expected product demand fell to -24 in December from -3.

Retail employment declined this month, with the index for the number of employees falling to -21 from the previous reading of -13. The index for average wages lost twelve points, settling at -4.

Yeah, Christmas was going to be ok..... oops. 

NOT.

Overall service sector revenues were negative, employee count went deeply negative to -12 from -6 and expected demand is flat at zero.

In retail shopper traffic was -18 from +23 last month, right into Christmas.  Worse, expected demand is -24 from last month's -3.

There's no silver lining here and with services being 70% of the economy there's only way to characterize this report:

Here it comes!

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Richmond Fed: +5 (Down 4) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Crzymorse
Posts: 1187
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Clintb350
Posts: 1453
Incept: 2008-01-19

Southern AZ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
That link is 404. Must not have been on message.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1187
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bloomberg and yahoo both have articles on HFT today. Sorry the link didn't work. Maybe we will see some actual reform.
Apotheoun
Posts: 1281
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
OK I have a question. are there any seasonal adjustment in there, or did we actually have a DECREASE in shopping activity during Dec.? if so I may just crap my pants.

added question: If we really had a decrease in economic activity in the service sector during Dec. is this a short the phonebook moment?

----------
"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"

Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Guess Ben Bernanke and the global central bankster grand experiment isn't working.

Trying to expand credit within a debt saturated environment doesn't seem like it will work.

----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Genesis
Posts: 130690
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
From the survey "About" tab:
Quote:
Each month, the Survey of Manufacturing Activity is sent electronically or by mail to about 220 contacts whose firm type, firm size and location collectively match the profile of overall manufacturing in the District. In a typical month, approximately 100 contacts respond to the survey.

Respondents provide information on current activity, including shipments, new orders, order backlogs, and inventories. In addition, manufacturers inform us about employment conditions, prices and their expectations of business activity for the next six months.

The summary results of each survey are provided to the public on the fourth Tuesday of the month.

Note the absence of a statement about seasonal adjustment but yes, the overall index IS seasonally-adjusted -- the composite itself. Nonetheless, the numbers are bad.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Lemonaid
Posts: 9879
Incept: 2008-01-20
Green
Metro Detroit
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Clint... just pull up the Cashed article here:

http://72.30.186.176/search/srpcache?ei=....

No **** for not being "On Message".

.gov probably pulled it down over "National Security" reasons.

Quote:
The study found that the most hyperactive trading firms earned an average daily profit of $395,875 in the e-mini S&P 500 contract over the two-year period. First and foremost among those on the losing end: small retail investors. The study found that, on average, they lost $3.49 on every contract to aggressive high-frequency traders.


If you're trying to beat the machines at this game you deserve what's coming to you.

----------
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises

Reluctantdebtor
Posts: 127
Incept: 2010-03-05

ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Bloomberg article URL moved. No idea if the body of the article has been changed:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-25....
Toddmeister
Posts: 34
Incept: 2009-08-10

Bay City, MI
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The top link had an extra period at the end, that's why it didn't work
Apotheoun
Posts: 1281
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I read the disclosures at the end that it does have adjustment. Ok dont need a new pair of underwear.

----------
"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Magus
Posts: 1966
Incept: 2008-05-04
Gold
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This mirrors what data I've seen

----------
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Wearedoomed
Posts: 3584
Incept: 2009-01-14
Silver
slightly red state
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Here's Crzymorse's link corrected (note that I removed the trailing period):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-25....

----------
And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Beau Coupe changes in the service sector are exactly what is needed to take down the beast controlling this debt based economy. The bad debts must be made bad, and no more bad debts should be created on which the beast takes their cut. What was it, forty percent of all US profits went to the beast?

Whatever made their bonuses, stock options, equity or hedge fund money, they did. Manipulating alleged profits was just a side effect of their activities.

Too bad they bought all the politicians. When the opium pipe dreams of medicare, medicaid, social security go up in smoke, we will get change, probably not the change we want.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2655
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
$3.95 per contract round trip is almost $8.00 per contract position correct?

And how many times does the average investor churn contracts and what does that come out to in APR?...

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3536
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Lemonaid, all you have to do is watch the lineup of orders. Most of them are fakes and not present when the batter is up. They disappear like Eugene the Jeep. The mini is easy compared to the currencies.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Ponzi_unit
Posts: 8100
Incept: 2007-09-05
Gold

Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Anecdotal: Was listening to 'coast-to-coast' and George was interviewing 'Santa'.

Santa stated that he'd noticed the little children did not have LISTS of things they wanted for Christmas and instead had most often a 'single item'. Santa knows what's up.

----------
Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 630
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hailing from southern California:
The federal-state tax rate is going to 52%. The homeless are everywhere and they don't have bathrooms so the money is not going for that.

Yesterday for the first time in awhile I got on the 710 and 10 freeways and the carpool lanes are being converted to toll roads. A week or so ago I ended up on a toll road accidentally, had to pay both ways, and two days later I got a bill for an additional fine. So the money's not going to roads.

Meanwhile southern California may get hit with 126,000 jobs lost in aerospace and whatever amount of service jobs those jobs support.

This won't fix the budget problem but it would help: Stop the war on drugs, let out all the ones in jail on drug crimes; that'll save a mint. Tell the bankers to go screw themselves and don't pay back the debt to them or anyone else from any state or local municipality because anyone stupid enough to lend this place money deserves to lose it. Put a maximum amount on pensions and salaries and tell anyone above that to go screw themselves, we don't have the money.

Any police officer spending his time shutting down pot dispensaries gets sent to Mexico along with whatever boss is responsible for this act of brilliance.

----------
Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2655
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Drkshapiro, in CA it is all about the unions, more union employees and sucking of everyone else to pay for the unions which work for government. It is a vicious cycle of of you give me this and I give you that where the general public is left the victim. And as you may have just realized, unionizim becomes a tax on everyone else. The union posiiton is "We are not making too much, you are making too little." So the unions tax (through the government they bought via your tax dollars) the people who are making too little.

Huh? Then they come out with "We will tax the rich to pay for this!" (folded in with tax raises on everything else) The same game plan is happening at the national level, the focus is on taxing the rich and the whole focus of the tax raise is on the rich and what is rich, yet the AMT tax on everyone else slides through unnoticed.

Where does the Federal money go? It goes to the states to bail them out and pay for more union jobs. So you end up getting union taxed from both the state level and the Fed level.

When you bring this up to union folk the subject quickly turns to "look at the bankers, they are the real issue!" Yeah never mind our union evil, look at the greater evil over there!

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 630
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bert sure that's a big huge part of it. Salaries and pensions in each of the categories below.
I got this from the state website:
This is in billions--it says. This is confusing. And it's hard to tell what's under these categories, there are so many detailed pdf's that go with each of these categories. I wanted to take a "quick" look and gave up.

[+] Pensions 1,112.8
[+] Health Care 1,182.4
[+] Education 820.6
[+] Defense 902.6
[+] Welfare 646.8
[+] Protection 342.7
[+] Transportation 308.9
[+] General Government 113.6
[+] Other Spending 488.4
[+] Interest 362.5
[+
[+] Total Spending 6,281.3
[+] Federal Deficit 901.4
[+] Gross Public Debt 20,549.

----------
Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
Drkshapiro
Posts: 630
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It's not that I think the banksters are the primary cause (as the government enablers allow them and enable them to operate, they are secondary parasitical evil incarnate), but:
1. There are municipalities all over this state that made bad investment choices and now owe way more than the original loan to wall street--on crooked loans made to idiots.
2. These local bureaucrats borrowed for lavish lifestyle and governments that they had no business running. But they did, and they borrowed beyond the means of the local populace. Therefore I think this:

If you loaned to these local governments, you are a fool, and so you lose. I don't think the population should have to pay back these loans. If the loans were unethical it is not the taxpayers fault. I have little moral obligation (i.e., as close to zero as you can get) to Wall Street. To who? Corzine and his buddies? We on the ground here have to survive.

Everyone should live within their means, whether it's you or me or the local or state or federal government. So the first thing is to forget the debt and start over with NO borrowing and live with what you've got. You'll have no credit and that's good. But that's a fantasy. I wish it was reality. In the reality down here they'll just tax us until the coffin box is thrown under ground and the dying corpse exhumes its last dollar.

----------
Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin

Reason: clarification on the evil incarnate ie, banksters, hang them
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2655
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Unions and politicians in CA and other like states are going to keep what they are doing because that is all they know. People are going to leave the state and look for greener pastures. Moving people out of CA is a growth business. That leaves CA with a shrinking tax base which will require greater taxation yet again to keep it afloat. You can tell if you are in a unionized state if your state has a massive multibillion dollar rail system boondoggle in play.

Note the NRA is pushing for armed security guards in schools as the answer to Sandy Hook. My first thought was we can't afford this and then it dawned on me that Obama is going to go for it because he is a union man and anything that increases the size of government he will pass.

A lot of people were looking at Romney and Obama and saying there was no difference. The key difference everyone missed is Obama is a union man and more publicly paid for union jobs increases the democratic power base.

Main issues to likely come up during his next 4 years is union state bailouts and union pension fund bailouts.

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Pookie
Posts: 260
Incept: 2009-06-18
Green
Florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
A lot of people were looking at Romney and Obama and saying there was no difference. The key difference everyone missed is Obama is a union man and more publicly paid for union jobs increases the democratic power base.

Main issues to likely come up during his next 4 years is union state bailouts and union pension fund bailouts.


That's what seems to be one of Obama's main functions...growing them damn unions.

It's what made me vote for Romney.

----------
Once you admit that the individual is merely a means to serve the ends of the higher entity called society or the nation, most of those features of totalitarian regimes which horrify us follow of necessity. --F.A. Hayek
Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Despite the SEIU support of Obama, Obama is bought and sold by the bankers, same as Romney. The Police, prison guards, and fireman unions are the Elephant on the back of taxpayers. Municipal politicians are bigger thieves, just fewer of them. Yah teachers are a problem, but they dont hold a candle to the public safety pigs at the trough.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ