Let's Blame Sandy! (Grinchmas)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-25 19:15
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
Ignore this thread
Let's Blame Sandy! (Grinchmas)
 

Naw, really?

U.S. holiday sales growth slowed by more than half this year after gridlock in Washington soured consumers’ moods and Hurricane Sandy disrupted shopping, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse said.

Retail sales grew by 0.7 percent from Oct. 28 through Dec. 24, the Purchase, New York, research firm said today, without providing a dollar figure in the billions. Sales grew at a 2 percent pace in the same period a year ago. SpendingPulse tracks total U.S. sales at stores and online via all payment forms.

Sandy?  Really?

Give me a break.  I've been watching the data all season and saying that I didn't buy the "strong" or even "reasonably strong" predictions.  This is actually a net-negative report when you include price changes; the data reported is not inflation-adjusted.

One of the amusing parts of this report is that it's real-time data from retailer card-processing terminals.  This contrasts with the government "personal income and spending" numbers, along with the retail sales "reports" from various self-interested groups like the National Retail Federation, which are estimates.

Those numbers showed material growth. 

The real world says they lied.

Don't believe the folks like the NRF and other folks who refuse to cite their sources and claim to run "surveys."  This is the real deal as it's off real data coming from real check stands.

It was Grinchmas.

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User Info Let's Blame Sandy! (Grinchmas) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
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Some of the big department stores had substantial discounts leading up to Christmas. So, while the top number, sales dollars, might look good I'm not sure how that is going to translate into profits.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
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That's a top-line number Flap; the bottom line will be even worse.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Cobra2411
Posts: 10351
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Philly P.a.
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Nah, around the country everyone was bummed that Sandy didn't destroy Wall St. That's why sales suck all over and not just in the area's that Sandy hit....

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To err is human. To really **** things up takes government.
Cerich
Posts: 609
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ga
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I saw a deal forum showing bestbuy was still trying to sell small kitchen appliances from BF today for $4.99...LOL Yeah the buying sucked this year when you can give away toaster and coffee makers to american shoppers.
Reluctantdebtor
Posts: 131
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ohio
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I bought nothing specifically for the holiday. Zero.
Maybe a bunch of other people did that.
Mrbill
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North Carolina
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Where's dbongo with his yahoo finance headline BS now?
Iou
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The Twilight Zone
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I blew my Xmas budget due to the gun ban threats. I consider it an investment but it was not something I would have purchased now under normal circumstances. The current environment made this purchase a priority. I can cross it off my list now.

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
Steinbeck
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Don't worry, I'm sure this will be spun with "It's obvious that more consumers are paying with cash..."

Of course, agencies can lie until they are blue in the face. Unless retailers are getting secret backdoor bailouts, we'll see more of them folding this coming year.

Buh Bye, Best Buy :-)
Noodleman
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Funny how the media was claiming the stores and mall were packed with consumers. Every report I saw claimed that it was wall to wall people - and appeared larger than any Christmas shopping season in recent history. I guess I'll have to wait to get the truth from RT News.

I can't recall the exact figure - but I seem to remember seeing that the Christmas shopping season accounts for somewhere around 60-70% of the year round profits for the retail industry. If that number is anywhere close to being true those people are screwed in a big, big way. Might see the smaller shops shut their doors. Big layoffs for sure.

Maybe Congress will bail them all out with last minute fiscal cliff legislation that will be way too big to understand until they pass it! heh.

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Genesis
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Yeah, 3 days before Christmas and this was what our local mall looked like at about 5 pm....

Bunch of bull****ters -- the only store that was busy was the BassPro, and only at the gun counter.
Inline

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Iou
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Incept: 2009-03-16
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The Twilight Zone
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Maybe they should threaten to ban more **** to stir up sales. They could have a ban raffle and draw a different item each month. That would drum up some sales. Could you imagine if they told women that all high heel shoes will be banned. Get the hell out of way...

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
Noodleman
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All my doubt of the so-called economic recovery was verified today at the church service we attended. At the end of the mass the priest was giving thanks to all the people who helped the parish in the last year. He mentioned an unnamed donor who paid for new carpeting around the altar area. He said the old carpeting was completely worn out and without the donation the church would have had to make do with the old carpeting for an indefinite time period. Afterwards I got to thinking that if the Catholic Church couldn't afford new carpeting for an area no bigger than 2000 sq.ft. without a special donation we're all in deep, deep crap. Hopefully the donation helped out a local carpeting store.

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Pavlovshouse
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Noodle,

Donation most likely made by the local carpet store owner. Gets to clear inventory and depending on how "aggressive" his accounting(ants) are, will probably get a charitable donation deduction as well.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year's

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"Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one; for when we suffer, or are exposed to the same miseries BY A GOVERNMENT, which we might expect in a country WITHOUT GOVERNMENT, our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we fu
Blurtman
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#1 In December 2008, 31.6 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, a new all-time record of 47.7 million Americans are on food stamps. That number has increased by more than 50 percent over the past four years, and yet the mainstream media still has the gall to insist that “things are getting better”.

#2 Back in the 1970s, about one out of every 50 Americans was on food stamps. Today, about one out of every 6.5 Americans is on food stamps.

#3 According to one calculation, the number of Americans on food stamps now exceeds the combined populations of “Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming.”

#4 According to one recent survey, 55 percent of all Americans have received money from a safety net program run by the federal government at some point in their lives.

#5 For the first time ever, more than a million public school students in the United States are homeless. That number has risen by 57 percent since the 2006-2007 school year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-21....

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Wthef
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Funny I thought the same that the retailers were gonna do bad this Christmas when I noticed there was no traffic on the street that is usually packed with cars in traffic trying to get to the nearby mall. This year nothing in traffic, previous years packed 4-5 blocks long in traffic, not even one day

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"I had to look at her today and sat there staring at her bronze naked body laying in the sun, a flaming red candle in her hand she took me in. Her figure consumed me 36-32-34 and said "take me" I stumbled forward as I engaged her stare and she pulled me down towards her. I ripped off my shirt and dropped my pants, we f
Floridasandy
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blurtman, the media may lie but the numbers don't.

that was a staggering list.
Trades50
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Land of Tax and Spend
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The government and Wall Street are trying to get the animal spirits going by lying. The only problem is that the animal is severely injured. Brought on by years of credit expansion and the encouragement of reckless financial behavior.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Floridasandy
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the big problem, of course, is the job situation. as long as you continue to have headlines like this you aren't going anywhere with the economy:


Bloomberg reports Delta Air Gets 22,000 Applications for 300 Attendant Jobs

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c....
Medicdan
Posts: 8028
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Online
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If it was Sandy, then prove it. Break the numbers down by region.

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Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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Dan. Stop it. The animal spirits are living among us....

inline

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates

Killersdad
Posts: 1036
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Karl,

With that kind of traffic they wont even be able to afford keeping those lights on.

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They keep talking about drafting a Constitution for Iraq ...why don't we just give them ours? It was written by a lot of really smart guys, it has worked for over 200 years, and we're not using it anymore.
Swampwoman
Posts: 377
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NE Florida
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I was a Grinch this year. Spent about a third of my usual. Didn't even put up any decorations. Income is less than last year, but expenses are much higher. Since we have no credit cards and can only pay cash no matter how tempting the offer is, we have to stay within our means.

Despite having a more modest Christmas dinner and no tree, bulbs, lights, and a modest amount of gifts for loved ones, the world did not end.

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“A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." --Thomas Paine
Jata1
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I'm guessing all those people who dropped out of the workforce aren't shopping
Apotheoun
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MN
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I personally spent a lot more this year than last year because I am under the impression that this is the last civil christmas this nation is going to get for a while. However while I was shopping there was some great eye openers this year. NEVER have I gone shopping on major shopping days and seen so few people. I am talking like half of what I say last year at best case scenerio. I saw situations where there were more employees than shoppers. Much of my family works retail, and I asked many of them how busy things were and some of the stories they told me was pretty crazy. (and I did not let them know why I was asking either.)I think in a few weeks as businesses start to process all the data of this holiday season I bet the crap is going to hit the fan. We may not have much time left before this country realizes what is goig on economically (and I do not mean cognitively, I mean financially.)

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
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