Considerations For YE 2012
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-25 17:48
by Karl Denninger
in Investing
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Considerations For YE 2012
 

As with all such views, you may need professional tax advice on any of these moves.  Your situation is unique -- everyone's is.  With that said, here are some things to consider in the closing days of 2012:

  • Take taxable gains nowCapital gains taxes may remain where they are, but if Congress does not act they will rise -- a lot.  If you intend to take the gain sometime in the next year or so doing it now will lock your capital gains rate.  Note that even if you like the position this is not necessarily a lose; the "wash sale" rule only applies to losses!  What this means is that you can sell a position that is profitable, book the gain and the tax liability, then immediately buy it back (less the amount you will have to send to the IRS.)  This does not trigger the wash-sale rule since there is no loss being carried back.  This can turn into a double-win if the stock declines in value in 2013 and you later book a loss, since losses are direct offsets against gains (and can be carried forward indefinitely for those who have not declared mark-to-market status.)  Normally you'd be nuts to book a gain, crystallizing tax liability and then re-buy a position, but this is a special circumstance where it may make sense.

  • Be very careful with hedging strategies or crystallizing losses that are sometimes smart across a year-end boundary in taxable accounts.  Legally avoiding the wash sale rules is not all that hard; the trick is not to re-buy a losing position in "like kind" within 30 days.  This is only of actual impact on tax liability across a year-end boundary (but the record-keeping is a bitch all the time.)  If you trade short-term you either pull your hair out or you use something like Gainskeeper, and know exactly what I'm talking about.  The exact definition of what fits as "like for like" is a matter of some debate but out-of-the-money options usually are not going to qualify as a like-for-like (deeply ITM options probably will!)  In addition crystallizing losses to offset gains is sometimes smart and rather common but if you think the gains rate is going higher next year the offset is worth more in legally-avoided taxes next year than it is this year.   If you have a $100,000 gain in a security next year and the capital gains rate is 25% but this year it's 15% then having a loser that offsets that $100,000 is worth $10,000 more in lawfully-avoided taxes next year than it is now!  As such you may wish to consider not selling that loser until after January 1st this time around if you have taxable gains you can offset.  The other side of this is that if you don't have taxable gains you can offset then booking the loss now gets you a $3,000 offset against ordinary income and carries the rest forward and it's unlikely to be worth less next year than it is now and may be worth more.  Carefully consider the likely impact both ways before making your choice -- this gets complex when you have both gains and losses you can book and much depends on what you think your P&L will look like next year.  Yeah, I know, it's a guessing game.  Welcome to our wonderful government's idiocy.

  • If you own a business and need capital equipment next year, and have the money, buy it now.  There are Section 179 and related deductions that are due to expire on December 31st; if not extended they will revert to standard depreciation rules.  Forcing things onto depreciation schedules doesn't matter in many cases but in high-tech businesses it hurts bad, as many things become economically worthless far before the IRS schedules say they do.  Cash flow is not only King, it's God in a small business and forcing you to dribble out the capital impact of something beyond when it earns you money just plain sucks. Anyone who's ever run a technology-based business big enough to run into this problem knows all about it and has sworn up a blue streak as a consequence.  Take advantage of these opportunities.

  • If you are expecting an early refund, better make alternative plans.  This is the 900lb gorilla in the room; if there is no immediate resolution the IRS will not be able to process returns, especially if the AMT remains unpatched.  Oh, speaking of which, that's the real nasty in this deal -- the AMT.  This is a Tax Year 2012 problem, not next year. It has the potential to screw tens of millions of middle-income taxpayers and the worst impact is in high state tax locations like New Jersey, California and New York.  Those of you who live in those states and put Obama back in office get to thank him for this one if the AMT is not patched by December 31st as the cornholing may extend down to $40,000 AGI!  Effectively what happens is that if you get hit by the AMT all your deductions off AGI go away -- for those who have high state income and property taxes you will get rammed.  As someone who has had to pay this damnable tax in the past I'm chuckling at all of you who think that "taxing the rich" is an answer -- Mr. Firefighter and Ms. Teacher, you are going to get hammered on this one.  How bad is this?  It will turn your $2,000 refund into a zero, or worse, turn your $1,000 refund into a $1,500 bill!  Thanks Barry.

In short the year is almost over but the considerations just got very real for most Americans, especially those in high-tax states.  Once January 1st rolls it's too late to do any of the things you can do that will help, so consider them now, once the eggnog wears off. 

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Ilikecoffee
Posts: 1563
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Green
cold , AK
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Can you elaborate further on the last section and please feel free to dumb it down?

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You can trust the government, ask any American Indian.

"When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it" Gerald Celente
Genesis
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Ok: If you live in a high tax state you're ****ed.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ponzi_unit
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"Mr. Firefighter and Ms. Teacher, you are going to get hammered on this one. How bad is this? It will turn your $2,000 refund into a zero, or worse, turn your $1,000 refund into a $1,500 bill! Thanks Barry."

When you hear this from people the instant response should be 'where were you when I was bitching about the banks? Go ask Ben to cut you a check.'

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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.
Genesis
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"Where were you when I was bitching about the banks and lack of prosecutions? You consented and in fact shouted me down; now shut up and pay the check."

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ponzi_unit
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Noted.

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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.
Rvacha
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Cleveland
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Ilike-
BK has written several blog posts on the AMT
http://brucekrasting.com/irs-to-back-val....

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Genesis
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It's not the IRS that's going to back-date the AMT, it's Congress.

Congress has for roughly 30 years voted every year for a ONE YEAR index on the AMT. The original law did NOT contain an indexing provision for CPI, and Congress has NEVER modified the original law to permanently include one.

The fault lies with Congress on this one, along with Barry.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Flappingeagle
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"Where were you when I was bitching about the banks and lack of prosecutions? You were busy being distracted by, and railing about God, guns, gays, and abortion, thats where you were. You consented and in fact shouted me down; the country has successfully been stolen from us thanks to you, now shut up and pay the check."

I just had to add a little to that.

Merry Christmas,

Flap


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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Calmb4thestorm
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Just for the record, Section 529 has nothing to do with capital equipment and depreciation. That would be Section 179. Section 529 relates to saving for higher education expenses.
Genesis
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Fat finger fixed -- too much Captain Morgan ;-)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Bertdilbert
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CA
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Heh, that is going to hurt CA bad. CA is a high wage state so more people are going to fall into the AMT and in particular the union folks. That sucking sound of money leaving CA is not going to generate into sales taxes for the state along with all the recycle of dollars that would normally generate further income and sales taxes. The implications would be a huge revenue shortfall for state coffers.

Booze and smoke taxes may be saved but every other line item of revenue is going to suffer. Heh, booze might actually go up, but booze tax is only a fraction of the income.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.

Genesis
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CA is going to get assraped, but the state and its voters deserve it. Californicated, more than any other state, has played the "we will take even though we know it can't be paid for" game more than anywhere else in the US.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Bertdilbert
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CA
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Hell Karl, when I lived in Florida my biggest decision every day was I going to fish the inter-coastal waterway or was I going to fish the ocean side from my spit of sand. You live in Florida, and your biggest decision is whether you smack you baseball bat into Bernanke or CA... heh have a Merry Christmas.

Hawaii is another heavily union controlled state. Probably why Obama likes to party there. It is just like CA in politics, you are running against the unions. My brother has finally woken up to this and calls the city a giant union hall. Hawaii is going to get theirs too. Another ticking time bomb.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Genesis
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Yep. Hawaii is also a high-tax state. NY, NJ, HI, CA, you guys are all going to get it in the groin.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Medicdan
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Scottsdale, AZ
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Quote:
If you own a business and need capital equipment next year, and have the money, buy it now.


There is lots of this going on now which may explain some of the reporting.

Quote:
If you are expecting an early refund, better make alternative plans.


My CPA thinks its more like 33k for singles and around 40k for couples. I guess we will see. Part of me hopes it doesn't pass. Yes I know it will hurt. But I also think people would wake up.


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Crzymorse
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I think Illinois is going to be the first state to hit the wall. Actually they are trapped within a political system not unlike Greece. The fiscally weak states can take down the strong.

Nothing like being from Texas or Florida and having to bailout a fiscally libtarded states.
Vitchilo
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Quote:
and the worst impact is in high state tax locations like New Jersey, California and New York.

They love Obama, I hope they pay the piper. Elections have consequences, you know.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Mannfm11
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Why don't they just get rid of the AMT? I recall they brought that out in the mid 1970's, just before I took tax in college. I don't recall it hitting at that low of a rate and it seems it covered stuff like excluded portions of capital gains and a few other things. It don't apply to me, but that is beside the point. Just get rid of it. Is it being used as political extortion?

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Ben
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The Distant, Glorious, Past
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Any word on what is going to happen? No news I see on the int'l websites.

Only 5 days to go. Time is just about up to fix this.

Quote:
My CPA thinks its more like 33k for singles and around 40k for couples.


That goes down to people on some form of Gov't Cheese.

All Your Uroboros 'R' Belong To US!!!

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"Why are you going to learn French?"
"Because I'm going to France," says Joe.
"I'm from the future. You should go to China."
Jackl
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I hope they let it slide. Majority of the middle class not getting a refund would help public awareness of the tax-code, Congress, and the IRS's application of the "law".

I always thought they would drive us off the cliff to maintain forced partial fiscal stability in the face of nullified responsibility.

But this could end badly for many professional politicians. Such a move would be widely visible deep into even the FSA brackets.
Wearedoomed
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slightly red state
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Don't worry! Everyone will clamor for gummint to solve the very problems that they themselves created; after all, that's what they do best. One "solution," I'm sure, will be to double-plus-QE to infinity and beyond; that's how they've "solved" it before, at least in the eyes of False Keynesians. Of course, another "solution" will be to tax "the rich" at 100% - with certain, um, unspoken exemptions. Perhaps I'm a bit cynical these days...

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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Analog
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arkansas ozarks
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Quote:
Majority of the middle class not getting a refund would help public awareness of the tax-code,



Only gonna tax the rich, my A*****.

I told my friends so.

You'd think tptb WANT riots in the streets...

Mo
Posts: 12158
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Pa.
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Wow, so totally unexpected that Zero wants to tax everyone.

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Arw
Posts: 218
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All these years of cutting middle class taxes only to enlist the AMT to take its place. Republicans are as vile as the Dems.
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