Income And Spending: How?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-21 08:58
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Income And Spending: How?
 

The latest from our honest, loving, caring government statisticians says:

Personal income increased $85.8 billion, or 0.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $74.7 billion, or 0.6 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.3 billion, or 0.4 percent.  In October, personal income increased $7.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI increased $6.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE decreased $6.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Hmmmm...

The big gainers were actual wages and salaries (much representing a reversal of the loss from Sandy, as expected) and transfer receipts (that is, gimmes) -- with most of that being in Social Security payments ("disability"?)

PCE (outlays) also were up, but not as much as incomes.

This was a fairly solid report.  Some of this was clearly snapback from Sandy disruptions, but not all.  I cannot ignore the transfer payment increase; that was unexpected, especially in the Social Security area, but one also cannot ignore actual wage gains, which appear to have occurred.

One problem with this report is that we already got an employment report covering this time period, and they don't mesh.  If you remember the employment report showed that nearly a half-million fewer people were employed in November on a raw (no adjustment) "count" basis, not including population change, and the employment-population rate fell.

Show me a +250k employment report for December and an increase in both hours worked and hourly wages that is nice and solid and I might believe this is accounted for by sampling skew and Sandy.

Otherwise this is my response to the report this morning: smiley

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Comments.......
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User Info Income And Spending: How? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Yeah, it's pretty much bull****.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/f....

Sorry - but this smells badly of a "THERE'S ONLY 4-SHOPPING DAYS LEFT IN THE SHOPPING SEASON, CONSUMERS - SO GET OUT THERE AND DO YOUR PATRIOTIC DUTY!!!!!" report to try to get people so spend money that, by all visible accounts, they don't have.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Apotheoun
Posts: 1283
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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I realize hours worked could not be answered by this, but could it be bonuses? Lots of companies in the last couple of years havent paid them and many people I know are getting bonuses this year (but little to no annual raise...) just wondering if this could account for it.

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Nelstomlinson
Posts: 124
Incept: 2011-12-21

Juneau Alaska
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The election is over. Why lie now?

Haven't we seen inventories building a bit? For the employed, that probably translated into a little overtime in November. I'll be getting an extra day's pay in December, as my boss tries to shift a tiny bit of my income into 2012 from 2013. I think everyone realizes there are harder times and higher taxes coming, and are trying to get things done before next year.

This could be real, and still not mean anything.
Jtemp
Posts: 31
Incept: 2008-07-06
Green
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GM engineer buddy received a 5% bonus recently due to the pathetic pulse survey results from his engine calibration group. His group had the lowest satisfaction rating in the survey company's history. Apparently GM wanted to raise morale.
Ckaminski
Posts: 1578
Incept: 2011-04-08
Green
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Why the **** are you rewarding mediocrity? You fire the dumbasses and train people who are starving and willing to work for a living... oh wait, you said GM. Nm. :(
Jtemp
Posts: 31
Incept: 2008-07-06
Green
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Job performance wasn't issue Ck, most of these guys are good at what they do (My friend and I used to slave at Ford)- just treated like crap by .Gov Motors. That's the reason for the record low job satisfaction among employees. Sorry for the poor wording above.
Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22

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While others ponder, 30 million taxpayers are in line to pay 140 Billion extra this year in the 2012 alternative minimum tax.

Follow the money, the executive and the congress are going to cause maximum pain in order to maximize the tax extraction and keep those government troughs full for the medical, defense, etc industries.

http://crfb.org/document/report-what-we-....
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