GM: You Still Suck
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-19 09:08
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
Ignore this thread
GM: You Still Suck
 

In the "things to chuckle over this morning" column we have this:

DETROIT—General Motors Co. GM +2.51%said it will purchase 200 million shares of stock held by the U.S. Treasury Department in the first step of the government's eventual exit from the auto maker within the next 12 to 15 months.

The auto maker will pay $5.5 billion for the shares in a deal that is expected to close by the end of the year. The repurchase price of $27.50 a share represents a 7.9% premium over the closing price on Dec. 18.

"We felt this transaction is attractive to the company, good for business and good for selling more cars," GM Chief Financial Officer Dan Amman said Wednesday. "It moves us forward and eliminates a significant overhang on the stock that has weighed down the shares."

Oh really?

The company's levered free cash flow is negative $2.06 billion according to Yahoo finance.

What's worse is that the operating margin is only 4.67% with a net margin of 3.79%.  Would you run a company that can only generate 4.67% in gross margin, and call this "stable"?

Not me!

I think the reaction is "amusing" in that the stock is up big pre-market.  The problem with this sort of thing is that (1) the price is above the market, so the company is paying a premium for nothing and (2) it is diluting its cash position to do so.

Now of course you can look at this a different way -- the P/E is in the single digits and the P/E/G on expected forward growth is well under 1.  You can certainly argue that the market has applied a huge discount factor to the company's shares, but I believe that management's thinking on this -- that the government stake was an "anchor" -- is a mistake.

The real issue is whether the company's forward expense requirements from past commitments make sense, whether it is able to build cars profitably and sell them without channel stuffing or carrying back the financing through various hinky deals and whether its labor costs are sustainable.

If, and that's a big if, this is all true then GM can succeed.

I don't buy it with an under 5% operating margin.

Disclosure: No position.

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User Info GM: You Still Suck in forum [Market-Ticker]
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
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I hate this pig. Worse, their so-called profit is due in large part by purposely underfunding its pension. No worries though - taxpayers will pay for this via the PBGC money funneling conduit

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry

Truthseeker
Posts: 8474
Incept: 2007-10-07
Silver A True American Patriot!
NorCal
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Uh, yeah, pretty much everything about this company is ****ed up.

They do build a couple of nice sleds, though...
Inline

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Bagbalm
Posts: 4248
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
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Since they have a too big to fail government guarantee what do they care about margins? Once you have a place at the trough you know they will hold it open for you.
What they need right now is to get back to stuffing the heck out of executive salaries with bonuses. Otherwise what is the point of the company?

Nomullet
Posts: 6819
Incept: 2007-11-11
Green
SW
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Price wars have already begun GM is a dead duck.

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la....


Stuck with too many trucks, General Motors Co. is offering discounts of as much as $9,000 to drain its supply of Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups as it gets ready to launch a new generation of the vehicles next year.

GM's truck inventory has ballooned to 110 days despite previous sales incentives designed to move the vehicles off dealer lots. Automakers like to keep supplies of an individual model at about 90 days.

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Don't confuse clear thinking with simplistic thinking.
--Nomullet
Hogman
Posts: 7874
Incept: 2008-02-18
Green
Derby City, USA
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channel stuffing
Duc888
Posts: 7368
Incept: 2008-11-06
Gold
CT, the UNconstitution State
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9K discount on a 50K+ truck. What a deal. smiley

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...burp
Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Just think what kind of crap the UAW will start putting out if they need to cut costs.

I recall when GM borrowed in 2003, the stock went crazy a few days. It was a dead short to zero, as they paid about treasury plus 5% with an investment grade rating at the time. Blue haired old ladies ended up with that stuff.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Genesis
Posts: 130664
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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My PARENTS (retired) owned a bunch of GM notes a number of years ago (before the 08 blowup); over dinner my old man asked me what I thought about them. He owned them for the yield, of course.

I casually asked him how much he had, figuring it was maybe 10 or 20 large, which out of a total portfolio wouldn't be much exposure.

When he gave me the number I spat my wine; after recovering my breath I told him that he was nuts, and that if he stayed in that crap and he and Mom ended up under a bridge as a consequence I wasn't going to bail his ass out. I also told him I intended to short the company's stock to zero, probably by buying PUTs (which I did, incidentally, a while later.)

He looked me like I was a Martian. I explained that he knew damn well that I was right, as he was a Controller for a firm that the labor union wrecked the same way two decades prior, with deferred pension costs that were off-balance-sheet and a deteriorating market.

My mom told me later that he sold the entire position (thank GOD.)

When GM blew I looked up the series; they were in the same series as the ones that the private holders sued over -- and lost.

They were a zero.

He never did thank me for avoiding the self-inflicted gunshot to the head.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Aaugusti
Posts: 4
Incept: 2010-10-01

Michigan
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Karl,

I went through the same scenario at Thanksgiving in 2008 with the in-laws family. They treated my like I was the devil for giving an honest assessment which was the exact same thing our company's Chief Investment Strategist had told us in a meeting 3 weeks prior. They asked me for my opinion since I am "in the business" and got mad when I told them something that they didn't want to hear.

Now what I want to know is whether or not we the tax payer can carry the losses from the sale of this stock.
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Land of Tax and Spend
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To think they used build other things like washing machines and tanks.

Quote:

Just as President Roosevelt did after the attack on Pearl Harbor, the President must tell the nation that we are at war and we must immediately convert our auto factories to factories that build mass transit vehicles and alternative energy devices. Within months in Flint in 1942, GM halted all car production and immediately used the assembly lines to build planes, tanks and machine guns.


From a "can do" to "can't do" mindset.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8841
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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What they need to do is make a good little truck with a diesel engine and sell it for $19,999. I'll buy one of those. Even if it comes from Government Motors. Instead they'll give you a big truck for $47,000 with a Hybrid that gets 23 mpg and give you a tax credit for it probably. Then they'll incent it for $10K.

Short this pig to zero again.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Jtemp
Posts: 29
Incept: 2008-07-06
Green
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4 cylinder diesel due out in 1217 (small pickup) if they can make it until then.
Truthseeker
Posts: 8474
Incept: 2007-10-07
Silver A True American Patriot!
NorCal
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Or you could go find a 1972 or 1973 Chevy Luv mini-pickup powered by an Isuzu diesel. They get about 40 mpg. My brother's got about 400,000 miles on his, and turns down offers at least monthly.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Flaps10
Posts: 5145
Incept: 2008-10-17
Silver
seattle
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Tell me it's rust free Truth. I haven't had a good laugh all day

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"Better to die on your feet than live on your knees"
Truthseeker
Posts: 8474
Incept: 2007-10-07
Silver A True American Patriot!
NorCal
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It IS rust free. In the original sunshine yellow, if, a bit faded!

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Jslique
Posts: 465
Incept: 2008-07-28
Silver
Melbourne
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my first reaction is the Gov is looking behind the cushions on the couch for spare change so as to avoid dealing with the debt ceiling debate before the fiscal cliff is settled.
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