Retail Trade: Uh, Where's The Sales?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-13 09:13
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Retail Trade: Uh, Where's The Sales?
 

This doesn't look so good...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $412.4 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2011. Total sales for the September through November 2012 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2012 percent change was unrevised from -0.3 percent (±0.2%).

I don't like this number much, albeit the headline number looks ok.

Why?

It's all autos -- ex-autos the number was flat.

The bigger issue is that food and bevereage and general merchandise (think "department stores") were both down, with the latter down 0.9% monthly.  November includes Black Friday!

Online's share continued to increase, however.  I guess if there's a "bright spot" it's there.

Note that without seasonal adjustment the figures for general merchandise were up, but they darn well better be given the "start of the holiday season."

My overall take?  Shrug.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Jonesapple10
Posts: 379
Incept: 2010-11-09
Green
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With 5 Fridays in November, I'd say these numbers suck.
Susanjbear
Posts: 417
Incept: 2010-06-10
Gold
Salt Lake City, Utah
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Are they blaming it on Sandy?

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Susan
Genesis
Posts: 130803
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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No -- the report says Sandy had no material impact.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
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Green
The Archaic Past
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Was at the mall yesterday (high end mall) and to say shopping was muted would be an overstatement. It was dead.

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Gold is theft.
Visualcsharp
Posts: 343
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Silver
Round Rock, TX
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No matter how much the media and government say that the recession is over (and yet we need to tax the rich because they aren't paying their fair share?) everyone is aware of the true reality: most people are dead broke.
Nomullet
Posts: 6830
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Green
SW
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online=margin compression

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Ktrosper
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Silver
ft collins co
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Gen wrote..
Online's share continued to increase, however. I guess if there's a "bright spot" it's there.

Even that is somewhat of a double-edged sword... I'm not sure the local retailers consider that a "bright spot". lol. City, County and State tax collectors definitly don't ;)

KT

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
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Grunwald
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Seattle
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Was listening to Bloomberg radio this morning and they were going over some of these numbers. I was stll in bed and half aseep but someone made the point that the low end retailers have reported that people's purchases are strong right after getting paid but drop off significantly towards the end of the pay period. Basically the lower income people are running out of money between paychecks and/or government benefit checks.

Hearing this on Bloomberg was surprising as they have been pretty much in cheerleader mode for a long time.
Mrbill
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North Carolina
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But Black Friday!!!!! Wasn't it the greatest day ever in the history of selling things????
Glenn
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Green
Prishtina, Kosovo
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Also, these numbers are not adjusted for price changes. Not a lot of things have gotten much cheaper in the past year...
Musicandnature
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Gold
NJ
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good point Glenn.
concerning Sandy, one would think it would increase sales in many areas
to offset drops in others.
Dec is really gonna be bad. It just doen't "feel like Christmas" to anyone I speak with. national depression ? maybe until as Karl says we start seeing laws enforced against the true criminals.

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
Vitchilo
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And autos are up because of channel stuffing.

And those prices aren't annexed to inflation.

Just imagine those sale numbers when we have 20%+ inflation! It'll be very bullish!

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken

Enapa
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Black friday had have stunk. Every day i hear ads for huge sales. I dont ever remem er there being sales like this until after christmas. Bought my wife a hoodie at aeropostale that is normally $44. I paid $12. And they had lots of them. All sizes and all colors. They had 3 pair of socks buy 1 get 2 free. It was hilarious. Felt like i was stealing.
Cvdoc
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Washington, DC
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Even my kids are cutting back. One wants a hula hoop and the other some movie passes. "We should cut back so poor people don't feel bad". Wow

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