Darden Says "We're Screwed"
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-04 10:14
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
Ignore this thread
Darden Says "We're Screwed"
 

It's bubbling to the surface.....

(Reuters) - Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI.N) warned on Tuesday that earnings for the latest quarter would miss expectations after unsuccessful promotions led to a decline in sales at its Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse chains.

Promotions my ass.

The simple reality is that the devaluation of purchasing power is biting the consumer and the more QE The Fed does to cover deficit spending, and thus the more deficit spending The Government does, the worse this problem is going to get.

You can cover it up for a while with more borrowing, such as in Student Loans.  But eventually that "goosing" of the economy runs out, as acceptance of credit tops, and when that happens the trend re-asserts itself and the driver of it, which is the government's deficit spending, comes back to the fore.

Bubble TV is trying to play this off as "fiscal cliff" concerns.  Nonsense.

The trend was evident more than six months ago in the macro-level data and I've been talking about it since.  There is no evading the impact of what the government has done with its handmaiden The Fed.

Remember that we were told that "Christmas would be strong" and other similar lines of crap.  Well, if sales are going to be strong, why the profit warnings?

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User Info Darden Says "We're Screwed" in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bertdilbert
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They were moving their employees also to part time to cope with Obama care. This may have added to a decline in the customer experience. Will have to wait and see. Mish may bring this one up since he cited them as moving to part time workers.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Genesis
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It's not a customer experience issue, it's a "why spend $40+ for two in this joint for a pair of dinners and a glass of wine?"

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wearedoomed
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... and get fatter on the surfeit of carbs while doing it?

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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
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Landshark
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^^ EXACTLY ^^

And for food that is mediocre at best.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Vitchilo
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Good thing Ben will probably announce QE to infinity next week uh...

And even better, interest rate on the 10 year is now negative...

All very bullish.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Gamma
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Or, why should I eat this starchfest when I could just as easily slather it onto my waistline where it would persist less and hopefully wash off next shower?

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This stuff we're going through, this is nothing compared to the Middle Ages.
They told me if I voted for John McCain, an idiot would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Sure enough...
Salt
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NC
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Yeah devaluation of purchasing power is biting the consumer, and so is tax additive for the privilege of being f'd.

I suspect it's going to have a real impact on tipping too.
Flappingeagle
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This goes well with something I brought up yesterday after one of your posts.

Order Backlog is HORRIBLE! Many companies need a certain amount of order backlog to run smoothly and I'm just not seeing it. It seems that slowly what foundation there was left under this house of cards has been eaten away.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Aztrader
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Bought a Pizza at Papa Murphy's this weekend after the gun show and attached was a brochure telling customers that they accept EBT cards. I am surprised that Darden doesn't because its discrimination that the poor can't eat at Olive garden............

Eating out is a luxury now and with ZIRP, more and more people can't afford it. The student loan money will start drying up and more and more folks will wonder how to pay their basic bills, much less eating out.
Tesla
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You can have a fairly decent meal at Red Lobster with very few carbs, especially during what they call "lobsterfest". It's a lot cheaper way to get lobster than any other joint around here.

OTOH, anybody been to Applebee's lately ? The portions are small, the prices are high (for what they are), and the greens that come with the dinner are sparse. If you want a side salad, the cost is 4.50 for a puny effort. Dinner for 2, with tip, is over $50. No thanks. For that I'll go to Red Lobster and actually get lobster, AND have leftovers to eat for lunch the next day, thereby getting 2 meals for the price of 1.

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Mrbill
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Longhorn Steakhouse. Ordered a steak and special-ordered a "plate of 12 pieces of bacon" appetizer that wasn't on the menu. The manager came over to ask if we meant it, and we did, so we got a plate of bacon.

Carb-free! (with a side of veggies)
Smacktle
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2013 is going to be a banner year!!!.....Wait for it....

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Aquapura
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I was out at what I would consider a middle of the road local restaurant on Saturday night. All day I was craving a good burger, looked at the menu and about fell out of my chair....$17 for a 1/2# burger. Add a beer or two and tips and you're over $30 for one person, for just a burger. No wonder I don't eat out often.

Tesla
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Aqua, I hear you. I went out with friends a few weeks ago to a local artsy "pub" that I'd never been to before - they told me it was nothing special, but yummy. After looking at the menu I ordered the burger - $19 for a .5lb burger of local grass fed beef, and $2.95 for any topping. You know, for the basics like cheese, pickles, "condiments", mushrooms, onions, avocado etc etc. So if you wanted cheese and onions and ketchup on your burger, that was an additional $9 !!! Holy **** ! I appreciate the grass-fed bit, but I buy grass-fed for about $2.71 a lb every year for my own freezer - this was a total ripoff.

That was one of their cheaper meals. The place was packed to the gills. Of course, I live in a very affluent pocket that seems to not be affected by events. I'll be interested to see if this place is still going strong in another year.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Trades50
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Anyone been to a KFC lately? I ordered a bucket of chicken for a party. A 16 piece meal was over $33.00. With 12% restaurant taxes it would add up to be over $37.

They had a coupon on their site for a 16 piece with just mash potatoes and coleslaw for $29.00.

It's been a few years since I have visited them, just a surprise to see how much they have increased their prices.

Garbage food anyway.

Bernanke can devalue the dollar, people will be forced to stop buying once the credit card is maxed out.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Magus
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Grass fed beef is frequently cheaper than non-grass fed. $19 bucks for a burger is insane, especially with no toppings. We have some great sports bars with terrific half pound burgers for $7-$9 with a side.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

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Vitchilo
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And I thought 5$ for a burger was a lot of money... lol

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Arw
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In a weird way its all fascinating...

Remember the 70's and 80's and the video/copy of empty groceries, tenament style housing,poor manufacturing quality and limited product availability, ruling class vs the workers, the marginlaization of religion, etc. of the old USSR? And now, unbeliveably, we're living through the creation and eruption of the very same incentives that created that horribly destitute society.
Medicdan
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Their food has gone downhill big time. If you're going to eat out and limited on funds, go to Denny's. Half the cost and really good artery clogging food. :)

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Noodleman
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Some restaurants in my area are advertising "Buy one meal and get one free".

How long can that ploy be used to generate new business before the owner can't pay his utility bills?

One just closed it's doors last week.

If Darden can't make it how 'bout the little independent chinese buffet in the strip mall?

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Trades50
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Quote:
old USSR? And now, unbelievably, we're living through the creation and eruption of the very same incentives that created that horribly destitute society.


Or England where taxes became insane. A decade ago I thought the US would eventually loose people as they go elsewhere. Historically, it's possible. Empires rise and fall. With the central bank devaluing the currency and taxes going up as well as deficits it doesn't bode well for the citizens.


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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Drkshapiro
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Tesla,
Isn't Applebees designed for fat white people? (I think it is all white people, maybe it's a geographic thing.)

The meal is just to make you feel good that you ate something "healthy" thus, the small portion of greens.

Then, you fill up on desert.

Or, you could have filled up on one of their appetizer plates, like this one: appetizer sampler, 2400 calories or choose the spinach dip 1500 calories. Then you are HAPPY the greens are just a biteful because you are feeling ILL.

Isn't that good to know?
You know what, Bert, up near you in the Applebees in Alhambra it is mostly overweight latins, right? So forget what I said.

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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin

Gamma
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Northern CA
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There are numerous forces all acting against the maintenance of the Amerikun lifestyle...that is inarguable. The prior experience with socialism is trickle-up poverty and I very strongly believe we will be living through it. Maybe there will be some good career opportunities in the rice fields.

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This stuff we're going through, this is nothing compared to the Middle Ages.
They told me if I voted for John McCain, an idiot would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Sure enough...
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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It looks like we can take about 1/2 the calories out of the nations diet and live better for it.
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