Fed President Promotes Political Lies
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-12-03 13:44
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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Fed President Promotes Political Lies
 

There's stupid, there's really stupid, and then there's trying to dig oneself out of a hole when you're both in it and the only place for the dirt is in that very same hole.

In other words you simply deplete food and water (which you need to survive) but cannot possibly do anything useful.  And that's what The Fed's Rosengren says there is a "strong case" for:

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said he sees a “strong case” for the central bank to buy bonds at the current monthly pace of $85 billion after its Operation Twist program expires.

“Given the tepid economic recovery, high unemployment, and subdued inflation -- and the uncertainty around fiscal policy --I believe an accommodative monetary policy is quite appropriate,” Rosengren said today in the text of remarks for a speech in New York. “We want to see continued improvement in labor markets in the near term, and monetary policy should encourage faster economic growth to achieve that objective.”

Uh huh.

Let's do the arithmetic.

We have a ~$15,000 billion economy ($15 trillion, more or less.)

The Fed proposes to "continue" to buy $85 billion/month of Treasuries.  This represents $1,020 billion a year, or about 6.8% of GDP.

Let us remember that for every dollar of GDP one dollar of currency or credit, net-net, must change hands.  That is, for every buyer there is a seller.

So what does creating $1,020 billion in new "money" actually do, and is this "money printing"?

The latter half is easier to answer than the first -- "yes and no."

What this "program" actually does is balance the deficit spending of the Federal Government, which is running beyond that number -- but not ridiculously so.  In other words The Fed is enabling the deficit spending of Congress and the White House.

Without The Fed doing so the market would determine whether or not the deficit spending was sustainable through its decision to purchase (or not) the issued Treasuries at a given interest rate.  The market would thus regulate said deficits and as it became more skeptical that the deficits were appropriate and sustainable the price of the Treasuries issued would fall and the demanded coupon -- that is, the interest demanded -- would rise.

This is the same thing that happens when you, as a consumer, borrow too much.  As your credit rating deteriorates you are charged more and more until you either cut that out or default.

But what if, instead, you had "a Fed" that would simply issue new credit to insure that the market couldn't price your credit as it decided to?

Well then increase in the amount of credit and currency in the system would replace actual economic activity and produce both false demand for goods and services but also a false belief that the deficits are sustainable!

That sounds like a free lunch.

It's not.

Remember that the base equality we claim exists is this:

(Money & Credit) = GDP

$15,000 billion = $15,000 billion

Why?  That's simple -- every alleged unit of GDP has to be bought with something.  That "something" is either credit or currency.

Now we propose to do:

$15,000 + 1,020 = $15,000

But that's not possible because that equality is false.

Here's where the problem comes from -- we denominated GDP not in an invariant such as a fixed measure of output but rather in dollars, which are not fixed in size or scope!

In other words GDP is a ratio, not what it is represented as, which is a level.

So what happens when we "emit" that new 6.8% of GDP into the system through The Fed's "bond buying"?

That's easy -- the value of each unit of currency and credit falls by 6.8%.

Now each unit of GDP does not uniformly increase in cost (in dollar terms) by the same amount. 

But this is not what we've observed.

Remember that The Fed has been doing this "QE" game since it began with QE1, and yet price inflation as measured in the CPI has not moved much. 

How is this possible?

It's possible because net actual economic demand as measured by earned and spent money and credit is contracting at a rate approximately equal to that in which is being "stimulated" and thus the net change is approximately zero!

So what has been the REAL change in GDP over the last few years?  That's simple:

Government deficit spending must be subtracted out from GDP because it represents a raw claim of being able to pay tomorrow without any backing whatsoever, other than the willingness of the people to pay taxes in the future.  In other words it does not represent actual demand for services and goods predicated on someone producing something and thus having economic surplus to expend; it is entirely "on the come."

And for this reason deficit spending in any amount is extremely dangerous because like all compounded functions it becomes more damaging and harder to stop the longer it is continued.

Nonetheless whether you have your real standard of living decrease because the price of everything goes up or because the amount of money you earn goes down the net result to you as a person in the economy is exactly the same.

The only difference is that by playing this game Politicians can get away with lying and claim that the economy has "recovered", when in fact it has not.

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User Info Fed President Promotes Political Lies in forum [Market-Ticker]
Shanearthur
Posts: 85
Incept: 2010-03-12
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"Inflation is subdued" huh?
At the supermarket I buy these chips. The bag was always 8ounces. Now the bag is 6ounces and it cost slightly higher than it used to. That's at least 20% hidden inflation right there. Subdued my ass!
Digitlman
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Incept: 2011-03-04

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They've been pulling the 'ol "less product for same price or only slightly more" game for the last few years, just so they can claim inflation is "contained".

Bull****.
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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The global economy is only about $80 Trillion a year. So lately, in any given year close to 2% a year in global GDP would be needed to purchase newly issued treasuries just to run our yearly budget deficit. That's insane!

If the deficit spending stopped their would be a global banking run the likes of which we have never seen. Once asset prices drop due to the contraction in GDP, the banks go bankrupt, people rush to take their money out and the system implodes. The last five years have taken the system beyond fixing and I suspect all the QE, deficit spending and ZIRP can only prevent asset prices from slowly deflating over a complete business cycle. The fed's only hope (and a prayer) now is that wealth redistribution can reignite monetary velocity and prop asset values.







Mortgageguymn
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I think the new policy will officially be named "Operation More Cowbell".
Crzymorse
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Final point- I'm not sure there is enough capital to even fund that large a deficit every year without QE. It might not be a matter of market discipline. I'm not even sure it's possible.
Apotheoun
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"They've been pulling the 'ol "less product for same price or only slightly more" game for the last few years, just so they can claim inflation is "contained"."

is this true? when they count inflation do they not take into account actual volume of product? If this is true it makes CPI even more of a joke than it is.

----------
"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Lenguado
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Apo,

In those immortal words of Madeline Kahn as Lili Von Shtupp in 'Blazzing Saddles',

"It's TWOO! It's TWOO!"


----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Apotheoun
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"It's TWOO! It's TWOO!"


I laughed so hard. It really has been too long since I have seen that movie.

----------
"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Eireannx
Posts: 31
Incept: 2012-02-04

Melbourne, Australia
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Of course it is printing. It's only 'not printing' if you have any intention of ever paying it back.

Once the Fed buys the debt it becomes a case of them paying 'interest' on the debt, which comes back as profit from the Fed, which could then be sterilised money that they can also spend because it doesn't look like the money they borrowed to pay the interest on the money they borrowed.
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