Here It Comes! (Roths)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-29 14:31
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government
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Here It Comes! (Roths)
 

Never, ever trust a politician who promises you something you cannot hold in your hand here and now.

So hold on to your wallet. Congress has many options when it comes to tapping this vast reservoir. It could eliminate the deduction altogether or just for top earners, further restrict the amount that is deductible (currently $17,500; for those over 50, $23,000), start taxing retirement savings growth, or take back the part that has grown tax-free.

In the throes of a retirement savings crisis, none of these options is appealing. But that last one is most troublesome. At stake is any savings that has accrued tax-free in a Roth IRA.

One reason I did not convert en-masse to a Roth even though under certain "specific conditions" I could have is that in a conventional IRA (whether a Sep or "personal" IRA) you contribute to it on a pre-tax basis but all your withdrawals are taxed when you make them.

Therefore, the government is going to get to tax you tomorrow; they have not made you a promise of future action (in fact, they promised you'd get taxed!)

The Roth, on the other hand, you pay into with post-tax dollars but the capital gains are tax free later on.

Well, in theory they are anyway, because you were "politically promised" they would be.

Unfortunately the US Supreme Court has ruled repeatedly that retroactive tax changes are legal even when you make a decision predicated on that former policy and get burned as a result

Therefore, there is exactly nothing to prohibit the government from revoking the tax preference on capital gains in a Roth, and when the government does so you will get gang*****d because you intentionally invested a smaller amount of money originally (diminished by the amount of tax you paid on the contribution) and thus your compound earnings, such as they are, will be dramatically short of what they would have been in an traditional IRA.

Further, the traditional IRA is taxed as ordinary income, which is the worst rate to begin with, so losing "capital gains" preference is a big fat nothingburger since you weren't going to get it in the first place.

smiley

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User Info Here It Comes! (Roths) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Antone
Posts: 7862
Incept: 2008-02-03
Green
Seditionia, USSA
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This country needs to dissolve is this is what the debt discussion has come to. **** that ****. Emigration options need to be evaluated immediately - whether that means I'm a gringo or not.

US wants to continue down the Greece path? Yeah, have fun with that. I want no part of it.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Fraudster
Posts: 4181
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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This is coming. And it will be the marker that the end of the system is nigh.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Randy123
Posts: 5863
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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I tried to get people out of 401k s years ago...Take the dumb penalty and be free of the shackles. No one listened.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Sean
Posts: 1789
Incept: 2009-04-21

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yep.

Looks like Ann Bardhardt was right again.

As for me personally cashed out of ALL retierment (I'm 39) monies last January. Good riddence!

Took the max out of my current 401k as a loan and then defaulted! (since that is the only way I could get the money).

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1249
Incept: 2011-04-14

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This is exactly 100% of the reason I did not swtich into a Roth myself. No guarantee that additional taxes would not be added in the future.

NEVER EVER agree to pay a tax unless there is some bizzare situation where you pay and walk away with the rest of the money and you can hide it away from the government.

The precedent had already been set for this $hit with SS because now part of your SS benefits are taxable.

Suckers.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Noodleman
Posts: 2509
Incept: 2008-11-01

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Funny how the courts all rule that pensions are sancrosanct and untouchable once promised.

But it's always open season on your Roth and 401-k.

****, this is becoming intolerable. :^(

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"It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you can fool enough of them to rule a large country." William James Durant, 5 Nov 1885 - 7 Nov 1981

Veedubforlife
Posts: 42
Incept: 2011-08-19

United States
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So basically what they're saying is that ex post facto laws, expressly forbidden in the Constitution (Article 1, sections 9 and 10 [Congress, and then the states]) are not actually ex post facto laws. Or rather, "the court can say whatever it wants and there's nothing the peasants can do about it, especially if the peasants are more fluent in matters of the law than the courts are."

But hey, it's not the first time it has happened. Hopefully everyone with money in California will leave because California pulled one on them. Most of the gun laws on the books are enforced ex post facto (that is, if you committed a crime with a legally owned firearm and they pass a law making your firearm illegal after your crime, they can tack it on to your sentence).

It looks like the argument is "regulatory" vs. "punitive." If it is "not punitive" then they say it's not ex post facto. Really?

...must...not...incite...revolution...
Lowbeyond
Posts: 17126
Incept: 2008-02-11
Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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just the first of many steps. will i happen this month ? donno. but it will happen count on it

god only knows why people think that certain sections of the tax code - that changes every year on a whim - some how are inviolate. they could never do that.... ! smiley

that sure is a funny delusion to hold

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Oldno7
Posts: 2160
Incept: 2008-11-14
Gold
RECALL STATE USA
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If I lost money in my Roth does the Govment owe me money smiley.

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IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.
When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1249
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Noodle +1

There are two classes in this country, the well connected and everyone else.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Apotheoun
Posts: 1421
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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I doubt they will do it, but it says something about the fact that they are even TALKING about it...

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Apotheoun
Posts: 1421
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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so how would this effect the match your company gave you? that could be considered a gain couldnt it?

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-08-25


Banned
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Quote:
I tried to get people out of 401k s years ago...Take the dumb penalty and be free of the shackles. No one listened.

Yeah, I feel so shackled having my employer kick in money, for free, to my retirement account.
John117
Posts: 325
Incept: 2009-02-19
Green A True American Patriot!
NOVA
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I suggest everyone search for "The Folding" in Rumors. This topic has been debated here on TF for several (4) years now. And started by one of our host's all time favs - AynRandFan.

This move on Roth's is just the first step IMHO. Once the sheeple get acclimated to that theft, CONgress will make the next move and force ALL pensions into Treasuries with an Annuity from Uncle Sugar.

I suppose I'll have to update my status in order to read that all again. FWIW, now I'm REALLY glad I refused to participate in the IRA scam when I started this new job.

AK-47 or Saiga .308? What to buy? What to buy? Hmmm tough choice. .308 it is.

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Now we face the danger which in the past has been most destructive to the human - plenty, comfort and ever increasing leisure. No dynamic people have ever survived these dangers. - John Steinbeck

Magus
Posts: 2001
Incept: 2008-05-04
Gold
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401ks are already taxed as income when withdrawn. Roths are not. 401ks remain at risk for forced government bond purchases.

As others have said, I get free money from my employer and a tax deduction to put into a 401k. Even if 25% is forced into gov bonds it would still be worth it

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V

Fraudster
Posts: 4181
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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Quote:
so how would this effect the match your company gave you? that could be considered a gain couldnt (sic) it?


Oh Mr. taxman, I have extra income over here...

Quote:
Yeah, I feel so shackled having my employer kick in money, for free, to my retirement account.


Just wait until the rules are amended and you are required to pay taxes on that too. Or if your employer has to pay it, watch as he cuts the benefit or cuts your gross pay. Lol at thinking that there is going to be any escaping the screwing.

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Mdm
Posts: 338
Incept: 2010-10-13

South Florida
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Am I missing something here or am I correct in thinking that if they start taxing capital gains in a Roth IRA that it becomes no different than a regular brokerage account?
Crzymorse
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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In a 401k, about 1/3 of the your capital gains historically go to Wall Street by the time you start withdrawing for fund management and fees.
Trades50
Posts: 4238
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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I informed a die-hard Obama supporter about this and he claimed it was nonsense.

He said Obama would never do that. He claims it they did that Cabela's would be busy with people buying fire arms because they would be*****ed.

Last couple of years he bragged about getting Roths.

It serves him right to be stiffed by the people he supported.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson

Magus
Posts: 2001
Incept: 2008-05-04
Gold
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Quote:
Just wait until the rules are amended and you are required to pay taxes on that too


You already DO pay taxes on that at withdraw - as income and not capital gains either. Now they may change it to tax at entry and withdraw but then your cost basis changes and you pay less taxes at the back end.

----------
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V

Lowbeyond
Posts: 17126
Incept: 2008-02-11
Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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They will just increase the rate that you pay so you pay more. Its fairness you see.

Fraudster wrote..
Lol at thinking that there is going to be any escaping the screwing.

Yep

The it cant happen here crowd or they would never crowd are in for some surprise buttsex

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Apotheoun
Posts: 1421
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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I also heard on the news that they were talking about a tax on assets and accrued wealth, so this I guess just jives with that, kinda of a warning sign to me, we must be getting pretty close.

----------
"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Fraudster
Posts: 4181
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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Quote:
You already DO pay taxes on that at withdraw - as income and not capital gains either. Now they may change it to tax at entry and withdraw but then your cost basis changes and you pay less taxes at the back end.


That is what I meant, sorry. But then, that is the entire point of the 401(k) and the IRA isn't it. Do the math. Paying the taxes up-front results in more taxes paid and less take home money. That would be decidedly negative for the bagholder investor. And this is exactly the kind of thing I expect the Government to do, right before they go for the motherlode and coerce people's retirement monies into Treasuries.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-08-25


Banned
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Quote:
Quote:
Yeah, I feel so shackled having my employer kick in money, for free, to my retirement account.

Just wait until the rules are amended and you are required to pay taxes on that too. Or if your employer has to pay it, watch as he cuts the benefit or cuts your gross pay. Lol at thinking that there is going to be any escaping the screwing.

I missed the part where I will somehow be worse off if the government taxes the free money someone gives me, unless the tax is set up so that you pay more in taxes than the employer contributes.

Also, my employer is upping their contributions 50% in 2013, from 50% to 75% of a 6% employee contribution (meaning instead of kicking in 3% they'll kick in 4.5%). They are also upping several of our other benefits programs...if you aren't taking full advantage of your employer's benefits, you're nuts. Not everything is as doom and gloom as many on TickerForum would have you believe.



We are all dealt a certain set of cards in life. You play your hand and you take your chances. Right now, I am playing my cards with my 401k, amongst other things. I feel that one the best retirement investments I can make is fully contributing to my 401k and maxing my employer's contribution match -- if the rules change, then I will respond to the changes. Trying to out-guess the Feds with regards to tax and monetary policy is a zero-sum game.


Sometimes I think there is an unspoken competition on Tickerforum to see who can be the most negative about everything...

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