The Dogma Is Out (Fiscal Cliff)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-29 12:07
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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The Dogma Is Out (Fiscal Cliff)
 

There's no indication that the major parties, or for that matter so-called Libertarian commentators, grasp the real issue here as of yet.

Unfortunately this all comes down to ideology before principle, and willful and intentional recto-cranial inversion when it comes to arithmetic, which is simply indifferent to political considerations.

Take the Democrats; they insist that "entitlements" are not really on the table, particularly Social Security and Medicare.  Note carefully that the Democrats studiously evade any attempt to separate the two programs, despite the fact that Social Security was within fighting distance of being solvent right up until they, along with the Republicans, cut the tax base out from under it.

Medicare, on the other hand, is utterly impossible to fix.  Medical care is some 20% of our GDP today, double that of other industrial, first-world nations.  You'd think that would be impossible and it would be but for the intentional (and intentionally-ignored!) monopoly-style protections that the medical industry at all levels has managed to get written into the law.

Absent those protections the cost of medical care would be roughly comparable between developed countries.  With them we wind up paying for a huge percentage of every other nation's true cost of care; it is shifted to us literally at gunpoint with the government there to shove their guns up your nose (and then toss you in a prison cell) if you should attempt to use capitalism to arbitrage out those differences.

This is what drove federal medical spending from $53 billion in 1980 to ~$850 billion in 2011.  For comparison the CPI went from 82.4 to 224.9, or 273% of the 1980 level.

This means that medical care should have cost the federal government $145 billion last year -- not $850 billion, a reduction of 83% -- which would cut last year's deficit by more than half (~$700 billion) all on its own.

Were we to cut that crap out the cost of medical care would dive by 60% or more all-in.  The result would be that Medicare could be reduced in scope and cost by 80% or more since it could be scaled back to provide only routine medical services -- the cost of "extraordinary" services would be so much cheaper that most Seniors could afford to pay cash, and those who refused to make any provision to do so during their working life could be reasonably turned away from those extraordinary services -- but not the routine ones.

Neither Democrat or Republican will touch this problem but it is the largest single issue in the budget, the growth of the national debt and budget deficits.  It is also the source of much of the false demand in our economy today.

The key point: No actual solution to our budget problem is mathematically possible without putting a stop to this.

Now let's look at the Republican side, because they're responsible (in large part) for the other half of the mess.

The next-largest problem with regard to growth is our military budget.  It must be cut in half.  But to cut it in half immediately is untenable.  We're getting a short-term assist here, however, in that we're using "fracking" to extract more oil and gas.  That won't last for too long but it does give us the ability to resolve our energy problems within the next 10-20 years on a permanent basis -- if we start now.  We can temporarily shift a small amount of our military spending there, and over 10 years gradually decrease the total to half of what it is today.

If we do those two things while holding taxes to 20% of the economy the federal budget is largely fixed.

Here's the problem from all sides of the aisle:

Government deficit spending is dollar-for-dollar additive to GDP, although the demand it represents in the economy is not organic and absent that deficit spending would not exist.  This the partisans will never admit, because to do so is to admit that (1) they've been lying to you serially for decades and (2) we must accept an economic contraction in the double-digits when we stop lying!

Now let's look at the rest.  Welfare in all of its forms provides a powerful disincentive to work.  So does our tax code, which is archaic and idiotic.  If you want a vibrant economy you want capital formation to have strong incentive in preference to consumption and (especially) debt, and that in turn means you want to remove from taxation the accumulation of savings (capital) while shifting taxation toward consumption and removing all tax preference that is accorded to debt anywhere in the economy.

The Fair Tax does all of this.  It also is progressive.  But neither major party is seriously interested in it, despite claims to the contrary, because the amount of tax you pay is "in your face" on every sales receipt and that paints a huge political target on the chest of every Congressperson and Senator.

Transparency is the enemy when it comes to Congress, you see.

Lawrence Vance, a commonly-held-forward person who speaks on alleged Libertarian viewpoints, has an equally-serious problem in that he too plays the conflation game.  He says:

Now, any tax rate increase — payroll, income, capital gains, or estate — is a bad thing because it allows the federal government to continue to recklessly spend money on its various unconstitutional programs, income-redistribution schemes, foreign wars, and empire building. Likewise, the decreasing of any tax deduction, credit, or exemption is also a bad thing because the end result is that more taxes are taken out of the pockets of Americans and paid to the federal government so it can continue to recklessly spend money on its various unconstitutional programs, income-redistribution schemes, foreign wars, and empire building.

But if going over a cliff is a bad thing, then why is the elimination of extended unemployment benefits and the imposition of spending cuts — minuscule as they are — considered part of the “fiscal cliff”? Abolishing any government program — and especially one that pays people cash — is always a good thing. And short of abolishing a government program, cutting government spending on any program by any amount, even if it is merely a reduction in the projected growth of government spending, is always a good thing compared with the alternative of no cut or an increase.

Of course all taxes are bad -- right up until you'd like a fireman to put out your house, a cop to arrest the guy who just stuck a gun up your nose and muttered "gimme all your money!" or some group of brigands just commandeered the ship you're taking a nice vacation on and you'd really, really like it if our military would come by and, well, you know.....

smiley

Further, Vance, just like a good political jackass or elephant, conflates Social Security and Medicare.  He does it because it's convenient for him and intentionally distorts the truth -- the two programs are very different fiscally and one can be fixed while other cannot.  Since he wants to kill both he conflates them and then argues they're "impossible."

That is a lie.

This is not to say that Social Security should exist.  The philosophical argument is an entirely distinct one from the operational -- or mathematical.  Those who wish to make a philosophical argument and are actually able to make that argument stick on the merits have no need to lie about the fiscal realities of what they claim will occur.

It is the last bastion of scoundrels, whether Democrat, Republican or alleged Libertarian to conflate that which can't work with what can, then using the impossible to demonize the troubled-but-fixable.

That's called politics, I suppose, but those of us interested in actual solutions are called to Rise Above and loudly call "BS!" on those in all political persuasions that run this sort of garbage in public, no matter their party banner.

The truth is quite simple -- we all agree, other than hard-core anarchists, that some amount of government is appropriate.  Since that's the case we are now arguing for (1) how much government we want, (2) what we want it to do, and (3) what we're all willing to pay for it.

All three of those have to align and the default action if they don't is that government must not proceed.

We must have this conversation and put the government back in the box that is bounded by tax receipts -- right now, not "on the come" with a kiss and promise of "tomorrow."

We must discard to the gutter and then spit on them as we pass all political parties and individual partisans who run polemics and conflate that which cannot work with that which can in an attempt to ram their philosophical talking points through. 

That tactic is an act of lying no matter who is doing it -- Democrat, Republican or Libertarian, and the time that our nation can tolerate that crap has passed.

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Truthseeker
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Yes. We must. But will we?

Great post, btw. Your continuing work on the arithmetic is fabulous. My 22-year old kid has a better grasp on fiscal reality than nearly the entire generation before him, thanks in no small part to your work.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Noodleman
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Hold it! I thought after the "Stupid Committee" failed that massive cuts in the budget were mandated in 2013!!!

You mean to tell me that they're wavering on that now!!! You mean they lied to us again???

Well, I'll be damned! :^)

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Bluebird
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No one that I know, wants to have this conversation, or any conversation about the economy. They tell me there is nothing to worry about, the ceiling will just get raised and everything will be fine. I was told the fiscal cliff was a joke, that they don't listen to TV discussing it. Rather everyone around me seems to be in the holiday season buying presents.
Cbracket
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Just as our expenditures for health care incorporate the costs of behaviors of other countries, so to does our defense spending. Remember our alliances (including NATO) that compel our country to defend other countries upon attack, allow those other countries to slacken their own expenditures for self-defense in a reliance on US "cover." Our "allies" are free to pursue lavish social spending (that our American leftists admire), protected by the shield extended on behalf of the American taxpayers. These same countries can also engage in commerce knowing that their international shipping will be protected by the American navy.
Illyia
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Quote:
[recto-cranial inversion


I just gotta say... that is the best EVER!
Thanks for the laugh.

i.

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Mortgageguymn
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99% of Americans act like children when it comes to these things. That's actually unfair to children - who could do much better. Your average imbecile would rather incur $14,000 / year in family insurance coverage (true cost, including "employer's portion") with a $2,000 max out-of pocket expense than a $7,000 policy with that would make them pay the first $5,000 in expenses and would pay 100% of everything over that - even though the latter is indisputaly cheaper. Your average imbecile thinks we can meaningfully affect the deficit if only we'd raise taxes on the "top 2%". Your average imbecile would recoil at the idea of repealing EMTALA, or enacting a rational proposal like KD's - to make uninsured emergency medical costs a federal tax lien. Your average imbecile knows what his co-pay is for a check-up, but has no idea what line 61 ("total tax") of their tax return is. 80% of people (and 95% of journalists) conflate "million", "billion" and "trillion". The ****ing President of the United States goes on Letterman and says he doesn't know how big the national debt is.

Even though I can't stand Obama, I had a now-laughable hope that once he'd won a second term he might - just might - tell people the truth: that extracting $70B per year in additional income taxes from the "top 2%" is totally inconsequential to our predicament. Instead, he's going around acting like that's the sole prescription. He doesn't even want the government to have more money (which I would understand, even if I don't necessarily agree). He just wants some people to have less. The Republicans' only argument against him is that no one should pay any more and we shouldn't cut any spending. The House Republicans' craven actions are understandable: they face reelection. Obama doesn't. Can't HE tell the ****ing truth? The problem is he doesn't even KNOW the truth. We'd be better off having a president who we took off the cash register at McDonalds. At least they know they are unable to make change without the machine. "Manager to the front!"

Eaglewwit
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All I know for sure is two things.

1. The fiscal cliff football will be punted (or can kicked if you prefer) successfully.

2. The stock market will not go down. (There may be small pullbacks, but 1400 S&P is the new psychological line in the sand. Which will be defended by TPTB.
Apotheoun
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I think no one wants to talk about it because people are completely afraid of it. For example, if you are elderly and your check gets cut off and you dont have any savings then all the crazy medical spending that keeps you alive stops and you have to live with your life choices. so that marks the elderly.

also on the middle age and younger, many of us have to take care of our parents/in-laws (and yes I am one of these people) and if the check stops, how are we going to take care of that person? I personally dont care because my father-in-law made the choices he made and he should pay for that.

so a large portion of the population does not want to deal with reality because of the possibilty of a great loss (and for a short time until things fix this will be a real threat to many). almost everyone I speak with on this issue either refuse to believe it, or are so afraid of the outcome they want the music to keep playing. Until people change, we will still get the politicians we deserve and nothing will get changed. Many people I know i think deep down they WANT to be lied to because the reality is so harsh they cannot deal with it. Hell, I am pretty sure how things will be and sometimes I cannot even deal with it properly because of all the damn stress it causes.

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Vitchilo
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Quote:
that in turn means you want to remove from taxation the accumulation of savings (capital) while shifting taxation toward consumption and removing all tax preference that is accorded to debt anywhere in the economy.

Wouldn't that mean that people would put all their money in investing, with nobody left to buy all that is produced due to all that investment??

And most people are like children, they want their cake and their neighbors cake and not pay for it.

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There are no cuts in medical spending whatsoever. All the medical programs for the needy run by local governments are gearing up to take on hoardes of new patient members under ObamaCare and the Affordable HC Act. They are using State and Federal grants to contract more docs and open up new medical facilities. Free primary care - no copays - free scripts - no copay - free ER - no copay - free hospitalizations - no copay - soup to nuts - all free to the takers. In the meantime I read today that Anthem Blue Cross of California (CA's largest for-profit insurer) has asked for an average increase of 18% in premiums for their policyholders. Yep, you read that correctly. 18%. And you watch. They'll get it too! The average productive citizen has no idea what he's in for. Not even a clue.

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People don't need clothes to wear? Cars to get around in? They won't want to do anything fun or entertain? They will stop traveling entirely? Is this a serious question?

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Genesis
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Oh that's easy....

smiley

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
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The system is going to implode, I just suspect it is going to take quite a bit longer than many, including here, think.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Genesis wrote..
Government deficit spending is dollar-for-dollar additive to GDP,


I'm not the first to point this out, but my understanding of transfer payments is that they are not additive to GDP.

I'm now confused. I agree that the money is not there to fund the promises that have been made, but I dont follow your argument that deficit spending for transfer payments actually accounted as GDP.

Is my source wrong or is this just another bogus argument as to why the fiscal cliff is TEOTWAWKI?

My source is:
http://www.enotes.com/transfer-payments-....
Quote:
Transfer payments are a form of income to individuals for which no current good or service is expected in return. They differ from other payments to individuals for which either a service (including labor services) is performed in return for such payments or a good is exchanged.

Transfer payments can originate from either business or government sources. Business transfer payments include corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions, payments for personal injury, and taxes paid by domestic corporations to foreign governments. Far more important, both in dollar terms and policy significance, are transfer payments originating from government sources. Government transfer payments can be made by any level of government (federal, state, or local) and can take the form of either cash or in-kind benefits. Cash benefits include Social Security; government employee, military, and railroad retirement pensions; unemployment insurance; veterans' benefits; workers' compensation; cash public assistance (including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families [TANF] and Supplemental Security Income [SSI]); and educational assistance. Also included are government payments to nonprofit institutions that do not involve work under research-and-development contracts. Major in-kind government transfer payments include food stamps, medical insurance (Medicaid and Medicare), and housing assistance.

Size and Significance of Transfer Payments. The size of the U.S. government, measured as public expenditures, increased more than threefold from 1940 to 2000, and much of this increase was due to the growth in transfer payment expenditures, especially on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. In the United States at the end of the twentieth century, transfer payments accounted for 44 percent of government spending by all levels of government (Economic Report of the President, 1999).

By their very nature, government transfer payments are excluded from the calculation of a nation's gross domestic product (GDP) since they do not represent compensation for the production of currently produced goods and services. Instead, transfer payments represent a redistribution of income, taking money away from some individuals (taxpayers) and giving it to others who are eligible for the various programs noted above.
Genesis
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Transfer payments where tax is collected and redistributed are not additive to GDP since the money is taken from someone else (and thus there's two ledger entries and they balance.)

Deficit-funded transfer payments are most-certainly additive to GDP.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
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Quote:
Deficit-funded transfer payments are most-certainly additive to GDP.


And yet they should not be since it just represent pulled forward tax collection (plus interest). IMO, we need a new measure of "production" and economic well-being. GDP is not cutting it.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Steelhead23
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Karl, I very much like this post. I am very tired of the political posturing that poses as reality. Yes, SS can be fixed. Medicare - no freakin way. What must be fixed is the cost of medical care. However, there is no way in hell this could be fixed by Dec 31 - so in a sense, kicking the can on Medicare would be rational. To fix the outrageous costs of medical care, a lot of protective legislation would need to be undone - and that would take time. But having the U.S. Congress spend hours and days, weeks, and months working on health care AGAIN is about as appetizing as dog food. Also, we can no longer afford an $800 billion per annum defense department. Frankly, I would be impressed if the Congress were to get the real 2013 deficit down to a measly half trill. I'd bet they could not do this by Dec 31, short of waterboarding leadership.

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Heisenberg
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Just say NO Boehner. NO to the increase in the debt ceiling. NO to Obama's (theoretical) budget. NO to Obama's tax increases. The spending cuts will take care of themselves. What's the worst that could happen, the R's lose the next presidential election or senate seats from blue states?

Phxkevin
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Boehner is going to cry again. Great theater.

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Congress persons are all the same, republican or democrat, conservative or liberal. They talk a good game, but the results (or lack thereof) show something different.
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Heh Boehner:

smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Apotheoun
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I must say Karl, the fireball finger never gets old... makes me hcuckle every time.

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Anti
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Quote:
Just say NO Boehner. NO to the increase in the debt ceiling. NO to Obama's (theoretical) budget. NO to Obama's tax increases. The spending cuts will take care of themselves. What's the worst that could happen, the R's lose the next presidential election or senate seats from blue states?


Well, suppose they did and the R's lost all of congress and the presidency - which I think they would. Things can get much worse from here.

Still they were fighting this kind of fight and losing every election pre-Reagan. It is hard to believe we are back where we were in the 1980s even after the fall of the USSR exposed for everyone to see the failure of collectivism.

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Bikemechanic
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Something to pay attention to in my opinion.

Our government, banking system, wall street, and down your local environment are subject to this personality defection, and its a big one. Ted Bundy is the extreme end (wiki him, he was much more than a mass murdered, real sick one)

However if you read all of this and think you might know one. The one thing they fear is being "unmasked". They are NOT like you, its hard to grasp, though necessary in my opinion to start to identify and fix the problem. Starting at the local level.

Is Wall Street Full of Psychopaths

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archiv....

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/opinio....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovic.... (quote I believe the percentage of the general population who are psychopaths/
sociopaths (just plain predators) is far greater than scholars suggest. end quote) and from my research I have to agree, and you must start being aware of how to try and spot them.

This article is a primer, but others are looking at and using their "facial expressions" they don't know how to really smile because they don't know when to laugh etc. Some seem to fake it and the best way to describe it is the "joker smile" from batman. Eyes don't sparkle, and perhaps of this and no eye "crinkling" when smiling laughing, lack of lines around the outside of the eyes, though this one is not a perfect indicator. The bat man villians, the joker smile, once you "see it" you will know it I believe. Art imitating reality perhaps. Interesting side note is that many actors are thought to be psychopaths, because they get so damn good at imitating emotions. Perhaps explains some the personalities you hear about behind the scenes of some famous ones.

clinical studies, show already that FOUR percent of the ceo's that participated showed clinical results of psychopathy. Many like the article above states think the percentage is much much higher, and I would wager all of you have been or are right now in contact with a psychopath.

If you discover you are perhaps under the influence of a psychopath (like a boss, coworker, etc) then also realize you do the things necessary to remove yourself from their "control" or ability to control and manipulate you. They are expert "game" players and have NO REMORSE< OR SYMPATHY, and don't weight their actions against consequences. You will lose if you retaliate.

A " psychopathic "coworker" uses any and all information you provide to then use against you for all kinds of reasons. Sometimes just to watch your pain from their manipulations, to get that promotion at all costs, or make sure you don't get it. If you believe after learning about how to spot one, RULE, don't give any personal info to them in the future, They will soon "bore" of you and move on.







Reason: clarification
Heisenberg
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Quote:
Just say NO Boehner.


Or go along with Barry and the Dems. The R's will get the blame for the coming storm either way.
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