Admit It, You Did It
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-28 10:27
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Admit It, You Did It
 

It's commonly known as The Stupidity Tax.

I speak of the lottery, of course.

Powerball, which has reached over $500 million, has a 1 in 175,223,510 shot at winning.  Since a play is now $2, this means that you must have more than about $350 million in the pot before it becomes "reasonable" as a gamble to play.  And oh by the way, that has to be the cash payout, not the "face" value which is a 20-year alleged "annuity."

But it gets worse than that, because (1) you must pay taxes on the winnings, but do not get to deduct losses, so the amount post-tax must exceed $350 million.  That we're geting close to, but not yet surpassed -- on the 20 year annuity, not cash value.

And then there's the final problem -- you could have more than one winner, in which case you have to split the money. 

So even with the $500 million (estimated) jackpot, the odds still suck -- just not as badly as they usually do.  And yet huge numbers of Americans will play for this evening, just as they did for Saturday (and none won.)

Now to be fair you might win $1 million (about $500k after tax) which is 1 in 5.153 million as well, or any one of a number of lesser prizes.  The total odds are 1 in about 32.

But again, remember that each play is $2, not $1, since they changed the game a while back.  This, of course, was done to intentionally pump up the numbers on the size of the jackpot and suck more people in.

If you choose to buy tickets for tonight, just remember the golden rule -- you almost-assuredly flushed the money down the toilet.  You're far more likely -- by more than a factor of 100 -- to be hit by lightning (1 in a million) than win the Powerball (1 in 175 million.)

Nonetheless I'm sure that this evening half the nation will be furiously looking at these little slips of paper, and half of those folks will have already figured out how they're going to spend the money.

The stupidity tax will have won again in aggregate, irrespective of the individual results.

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Steph4liberty
Posts: 1729
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But Karl, just think how much I can donate to your SuperPAC WHEN I win!! smiley

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Randy123
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I'd be afraid to win. Too much money. Too many crazies. No thanks.

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Ghopper
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Staten Island, NY
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Lotteries = Tax on the poor.

Nope, no tickets for me.
Gamma
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I've never bought a single lottery ticket. But if I were to do so, it seems to me that ones' chances would increase quite a bit by buying tickets when the pot was low...like in state lotteries when the pot is ho hum...1, 2, 3 million. By "quite a bit" I mean, in case it isn't clear "still not enough to get me to bite at it".

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Trades50
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The mob used to provide the numbers game. Now the government does it.

Saw people spending $10 and $20 on powerball. The people that can least afford it go to the riverboat casinos.

Reminds me of time a while ago when people spent all their time at the pony tracks.

It doesn't matter how much money you bring in the government will find ways to waste it.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson

Frat
Posts: 1939
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You'll appreciate this one Karl:

My father has always called the lottery "A tax on people who are bad at math."

While I agree the odds are ****, I sometimes choose to play (when it gets like this), but treat it exactly as if I was going to the casino. Whenever I go (rare occasion, bachelor parties or for the wife's birthday), I take a certain amount - $100, $200, whatever - and I consider it spent. That way, if I come back with ANYTHING, I consider it a "win."

People that play weekly or even daily amuse and depress me.

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Natew
Posts: 66
Incept: 2009-12-16

IN
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You bet I did. And yes I do refer to it as the stupid tax whenever I buy a ticket. Most people look at me funny when I say I paid my stupid tax today.
Tsberts
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Look on the bright side: it's not just a tax on the stupid, it's also a chance to participate in a voluntary redistribution of wealth.

I'm in on an office pool for $2.00, more for group giggles than anything else. If we actually won, it would totally wreck the office. I'm surprised that more companies don't crack down and enforce the prohibition of office pools.

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Cobra2411
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Philly P.a.
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I bought tickets for my mother, she forked up the dough... We split the 'winnings' 50/50... smiley


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Hapablap21
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I'm pretty sure that, in order for it to be a good bet, the after tax LUMP SUM has to exceed $350M, which it isn't really close to (I don't think the lump sum is even bigger than $350M).

That being said, I figure that if the lump sum jackpot is greater than $15 mil or so, then I've won not just money, but freedom. And freedom has a high enough value that I'm willing to play.
Thomasblair
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I'd suppose that anyone on this board that plays knows the math and considers it a form of entertainment. Some drink expensive coffee or go to the theater - I spend $2 on a long shot and some pleasant daydreaming. YMMV.
Lowbeyond
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im in bitches !

i need lots o' money for the lulz - and to hire high priced lawers to keep my ass out of jail afterwards. lol

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Genesis
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Good point -- the "annuity" is bull****.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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Jotapay
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While working at a convenience store in college, one of our frequent lotto purchasers drove his car into the building one afternoon. We rushed outside to see what happened and found him dazed in the front seat, paint on his nose and chin and a used-looking paper bag in his hand. That was pretty typical behavior from the lotto addicts.
Medicdan
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I will still buy a few. $4 worth. If I win I will donate 1 million to you Karl. What kind of star do we get for that?

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Magus
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I spent $10..worth the money for entertainment value alone. My expectations are for a net loss of ~$11 ($10 for the tickets and $1 for the gas to go slightly out of my way on the way home). And yes, its a stupid tax. I think I spend about $30/year on average (or roughly 2-3 bips of my household income).

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Mortgageguymn
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Part of the reason I throw $5 into the pool twice a year is so that I don't seem too rich to be one of the regular people at the office. It's like buying donuts to endear yourself to your staff. The biggest problem is that the person keeping the records for the pool is wasting a lot of time, which leaves her less time for other pursuits - like spending most of December doing online Christmas shopping.
Noodleman
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I played the State lotto a couple times and checked the on-line results meticulously. Naturally, I never won. Ya gotta hit 5 numbers and then a mega number to win the big pot. I always noticed that they list the number of winners, to include the big lotto winners all the way down to $1 winners who hit the mega number only. But they NEVER list the total number of tickets played. I contacted the Lotto bureau and asked them why the total number of tickets played is not listed in their results. No response. :^)

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"It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you can fool enough of them to rule a large country." William James Durant, 5 Nov 1885 - 7 Nov 1981

Genesis
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Medic: smiley

And yes, I do occasionally buy a ticket or two, entirely for entertainment value, and with entirely-written-off funds.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Seanmiller
Posts: 83
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North Denver
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Im with Thomasblair. Lotto tickets are cheaper than theater tickets and often more entertaining. Plus it keeps me away from the office vending machine.
Poodlelover
Posts: 153
Incept: 2012-02-02

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I think it's downright criminal that they even advertise these lotto winnings as they do. As Karl mentions, $500M today is not $500M spread out over 20 years. The ACTUAL figure they should advertise is the amount you can get lump sum, which is around half the advertised amount. If they are projecting over 20 years, why not 40? Why not say it's a billion dollars? It's a lie plain and simple intended (and it works) to sucker in those bad at math.

As the news aptly pointed out yesterday your odds of being attacked by killer bees are 33X higher and something like 50X higher to be hit by lightning, but "you can still dream", right?

The only lotto I ever play is occasionally the office pool because I absolutely refuse to be left here on the damn near no chance they win. I'd just hate that :)
Mortgageguymn
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Jotapay,

When you put it that way - that I could save the lottery money and put it toward my huffing hobby, it's making me rethink even the little I spend on the stupidity tax.
Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-08-25


Banned
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My wife bought $20 worth of tickets; I haven't bought any.

Here's the thing: every person posting in this thread, and every person reading Karl's blurb on the lottery, have all spent money on something, in some form or another, at some point in their life, that someone else with a different set of priorities would likely consider a waste of money.


Hell, I have 5 scuba cylinders in my garage I've never used; bought in a panic-buy situation when we thought Luxfer was getting out of the scuba business a few years ago. That was a few hundred dollars I probably shouldn't have spent.


In the long run, $20 here and there for the lottery is mostly entertainment and a dream, and nothing more. I won't fault people for kicking in a few dollars every now and then.

The addicts? Well...that's another story.

Genesis
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I "wasted" $20 last night on some drinks for myself and a friend, so yes indeed, I do "waste" some money. And the day before I "wasted" $10 in the tip jar at McGuires after running there -- they feed you for "free" but tips are of course expected, and the waitress who brings the food is awesome (and so is the food.)

I have no quarrel with anyone who intentionally dissipates money on that which is almost-certain to be equivalent to lighting the bills on fire.

I do have a problem with people who think there's a decent gamble or "investment" in doing such a thing.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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