Richmond Fed: +9; A Corner Or?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-27 10:14
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Richmond Fed: +9; A Corner Or?
 

From Richmond:

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced moderately in November following a slight pullback in October, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. All broad indicators—shipments, new orders and employment—landed in positive territory. Other indicators were mixed, however. Capacity utilization was virtually unchanged, while backlogs fell further from its October reading. Moreover, the gauge for delivery times steadied, while finished goods inventories grew at a slightly quicker pace and growth in raw materials edged lower.

Hmmm... what does the internal set of data tell us about these numbers?

First, capacity utilization is still negative, so that is not improving.  Employees showed a modest improvement (+3 .vs. -5) but workweek improvement decreased (+3 to +2.)  Finished good inventories increased.

The big surprise was that prices paid dropped a bunch, from 3.21 to 1.99 while prices received softened less, from 1.99 to 1.72.  In other words, the spread came in, which is net-positive for margins.

I'll call this modestly good, in line with what the headline appears to show.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Richmond Fed: +9; A Corner Or? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm currious as to whether this is actual improvement or jumping the gun on QEIII? Consumer confidence has improved to mild recession levels, likely based on improved perspect of potential home buying. Homebuying is being financed by looting the pensions of the people buying the homes, but they won't find that out until it comes time to retire. 3% mortgage rates might be with us awhile, but they will never be seen again by anyone over 21 years old once they leave. After the bankers get their slice, there isn't much left for investors in the securities.

What happens with the fiscal cliff? Sovereign debt crisis if they don't fix it, deflationary trend if they do. Of course, the way Congress counts cuts, we need $10 trillion in cuts and tax increases to knock a dent in the thing. Why did the 2009 stimulus never show back up in reduction of the deficit? Like anything else, it never went away, just changed stripes.

There are jokes that circulate on political issues. Mortgage interest deduction? $200K at 4% is $8000 a year. Put in the taxes and maybe you get to $13K. The married standard deduction is $11,600, so what is the mortgage deduction worth? Isn't it really a back handed way to encourage debt to bankers? The real question is, who can live on $20K a year as a family of 4? That might work in some backwoods area, but in the cities, it barely pays rent and utilities. Do away with the deduction and give people a personal exemption increase to make up the difference. In fact, getting rid of itemized deductions would save taxpayers billions, as the cost of having the form filled out likely comes close to the savings for most Americans. Give line items for charitable contributions and maybe State taxes and go on. Another change needs to be the limitation on taking capital losses. The number was $3000 when I took taxes 35 years ago. Talk about a penalty for the middle class that barely affects the rich, who wash their losses.

When is the damage Bernanke is doing shows itself to the general public? We will know when he has a rope around his neck. Maybe Bennie will merely be a scapegoat for attempting to stop the inevitible. Inflate or it will implode I have read from time to time. I keep that in mind from time to time.

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

Ok,

So where is 'Billreilly' with his B/C smiley ??????????
Quote:
I love how good reports are turned into bad reports. I know you have a deep emotional investment in doomsday, but reality refuses to comport with your fantasy. The Obama Recovery is kicking into gear!


[****skittles]
smiley

----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ