Another Unicorn Peddler (Payroll Tax)
The Market Ticker ฎ - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-25 12:27
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Another Unicorn Peddler (Payroll Tax)
 

It never ceases to amaze me how people get "column inches" in a paper like the NYT peddling nonsense like this gent is doing.  Oh wait; it's not that hard to figure out -- the media is not about reporting or even opinion, it's about shaping opinion -- and the truth, even arithmetic, be damned.

WE have two political parties in America, runs a saying that conservatives like to quote. One is stupid, the other is evil. And when they join forces to do something that’s both stupid and evil — well, that’s what we call “bipartisanship.”

The payroll tax holiday that passed Congress in the winter of 2010 was a rare exception to this pessimistic rule. Cutting the payroll tax was good short-term politics for both Democrats and Republicans: it was a tax cut that liberals hoped would double as stimulus, and a boost to the middle class that conservatives could support without embracing new federal spending. But more important, it opened the door to what would be good long-term policy as well — because more than almost any feature of the American tax code, the payroll tax deserves to be pared away into extinction.

Ross goes on to do what so many other so-called "populist" commentators do -- he conflates the two components of the payroll tax and then talks about getting rid of one of them.

That's intentionally dishonest and Ross knows it.

The Payroll Tax has two components, both of which are intentionally designed so that you, the employee, only "see" half of them.  Both halves, however, come directly out of your wages even though employers are forbidden by federal law to itemize the second half (the "employer contribution") and show it to you on a pay stub as a deduction off what you would otherwise be paid.

Social Security has a number of very serious and I would argue intentional design features that are both racist and sexist.  For example, a black man is expected to live to be 70.8 years, while a white woman is expected to live to 81.2 years.  If we presume an equal retirement age of 65 (which the Social Security system does for equal benefits, assuming equal earnings history) the black man will collect benefits for 5.8 years, while the white woman will collect them for 16.2 years, or 279% of the black man's Social Security payments.  Note that a large percentage of the difference is found in things that kill black men before they reach 65; those people get exactly nothing.

All paid in, however, the exact same amount of money. 

That's racist and sexist -- and intentional.  Those who pay in and get nothing wind up being the net "suckers"; they have no choice but to pay, but they get zero since their payments do not have their name on them -- they're just a tax.

In addition Social Security is "progressive" in that the amount of benefit you get from further contributions once you reach the minimum requirement is less, on a ratable basis, than what you paid in.  That is, the lower-income person gets a larger benefit in proportion to their paid-in capital than the higher-income does.  Further, the FICA cap and payout cap means that beyond a certain level of contribution, which is reasonably modest and occurs in the middle class income band, you get nothing further at all.  Of course you pay nothing more either, so that, I suppose, is "fair."

Nonetheless Social Security is fixable without a lot of drama, although we certainly should talk about whether the program should exist at all, or whether it should exist in its present form.  The reality is that the payroll tax has become a convenient slush fund from which the government steals, and which causes the reported deficit to be smaller than it really is.  It was responsible for Clinton's so-called "Surplus", which in fact never happened -- he simply stole the amounts paid in from the payroll tax that were not immediately disbursed as benefits!  Every President since Ronald Reagan has done the same.

To fix Social Security removing the payroll tax abatement is required, as is indexing the full benefit retirement age to longevity.  If we want to fix the sexist and racist elements as well, we could index the retirement age by race and gender; this would work because the persons with the lower life expectancy would also pay in for fewer years and likely would have lower benefits, but they would last for the same average amount of time as does someone who is of a longer-lived race and/or gender.  This could be adjusted on a five-year sliding scale to account for changes in demographics.

The real problem with the payroll tax is found in Medicare.  The Federal Government went from spending $53 billion on all medical services in 1980 to about $850 billion last year.  The average retiree gets between three and five dollars out from every dollar they "contributed" during their working years.  To put this in perspective the payroll tax is 3.8% for Medicare (both halves) and if we look at the average working wage of about $50,054 (all workers, all races, US Census Bureau) then the payroll tax for Medicare is $1,902 annually (both halves.)  Over a 45 year working life this amounts to $85,592.34.

How long does this amount of money last? 

The fact is that the average expense that Medicare puts forward for a given retiree is close to $300,000!

There is simply no way to make the books balance given these facts; to make the books balance either benefits must be cut by more than two thirds or the 3.8% Medicare tax must more than triple.

This has been hidden intentionally from the public debate on entitlements because both Democrats and Republicans know what the figures say, and they also know there are only three choices when it comes to solving this problem:

  • Triple the Medicare tax to approximately 12%, 6% each for employer and employee with no earnings cap.  Incidentally, this is only the forward component for retirement; you still have medical costs during your working years, insured or not!

  • Dramatically curtail Medicare benefits -- by a literal 2/3rds or more.  That's not going to be popular, but it's what is inevitably coming if we don't solve this, because the law does not permit Medicare to go into negative balances, and by the end of the decade it will.

  • Break the medical industry's monopoly-style pricing and controls.  Up and down the line, from drugs to devices to "CON" laws and more.  In short, make the entire industry from insurance to providers to hospitals to doctors accountable under Sherman, Clayton, Robinson-Patman and first-sale doctrines, along with removing all shields that prevent them from being attacked under Racketeering and similar statutes for any element of price-fixing or other anti-competitive behavior.  This would cause prices to collapse by 75% or more, and suddenly the problem goes away. 

#3 is the only way that can work in the long term.  But #3 causes an instant deep recession or worse, as the short-term impact of removing that spending from GDP will be immense.  It also destroys the political power of these companies and groups, such as the AMA and the insurance industry.

What you're seeing in editorials like the one cited above, along with the so-called "debate" in Washington (and what drove Obamacare) is the inherent scam and fraud in the system as it has been designed and implemented. Whether FDR intended Social Security to be racist and sexist at its inception is not material to the debate, but the factual outcome as it exists today most-certainly is!

Yet nobody -- not Democrat, Republican or even the so-called "Libertarian" party, all of which espouse equality under the law for all persons, will take these issues on and bring them to the forefront of public and political discussion.

Instead what we get is the Three-Card Monte game run by columnists in the NYT, along with the political class, seeking to divert us from the facts and figures that are right under our noses.

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User Info Another Unicorn Peddler (Payroll Tax) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mortgageguymn
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Ross Douchethat is the Official Catholic Banality of the NYT. He fancies himself Evelyn Waugh. Wish they'd replace him with Ann Barnhardt.
Randy123
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Love your work on the inherent unfairness to SS....Great stuff. I completely agree.

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Mortgageguymn
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Sure, the relative "unfairness" of Social Security by race could be "fixed" by letting black people (and men) draw benefits earlier. Don't see THAT happening. Alternatively people could take more responsibility for their own health, as KD routinely advises.

http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.ht....

"•Non-Hispanic blacks have the highest age-adjusted rates of obesity (49.5%) compared with Mexican Americans (40.4%), all Hispanics (39.1%) and non-Hispanic whites (34.3%) [See JAMA. 2012;307(5):491-497. doi:10.1001/jama.2012.39]."
Drkshapiro
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KD, a chunk of this life expectancy is due to younger deaths--that is, less blacks make it to old age. If you do get to the senior years, the disparity is still present, but less.


At 65 years,
white male life expectancy 17.7 years, black male 15.8 years
white female life expectancy 20.4 years, black female 19.3

At 75 years it's closer still
white male life expectancy 11 years, black male 10.3 years
white female life expectancy 12.9 years, black female 12.6

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus11.p....

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS

Reason: changing f to If
Drkshapiro
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Homicide is top cause of death in black males 15-44 years
In white males it's not even in the top 10



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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Justme2c
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I'll just toss this idea out... as a question, since I 'm not sure if this is relevant.

Perhaps these SS recipients who don't receive as much payout after age 65 - maybe they "get some of theirs" via SS benefits earlier in life? Since those demographics tend to be lower income, that could be a non-obvious equalizing factor.

I'm thinking of disability payments and dependent children. Aren't those programs also funded by Social Security? If so then perhaps SS is less sexist/racist than suggested, if you figure all benefits over a lifetime.

I have no facts/figures/links - nor an agenda, just curiosity whether this is a factor in the equation. When people refer to SS they usually mean retirement benefits, but I always understood there were other programs as well, and those are not discussed much, to the point I forget they exist.
Drkshapiro
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Justme2c
It has to be relevant.
I'm running out or I'd try to find a reference--I'm sure you could find incidence of disability by age and ethnicity. Black kids have higher disability than white kids every year. Not a larger number, due to the population breakdown, but a higher percentage of that group.

Just like there's a higher percentage of black kids in poverty than there are white kids in poverty, every year, again, by percentages, not total numbers.

Medicare is insurance for 65+, and younger for those who are on disability. States have their own disability programs.

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Lowbeyond
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kill it. its just welfare for the old. generational wealth transfer.

its a POS program

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Quads4444
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..."All paid in, however, the exact same amount of money."

Nope, not if the life expectancy difference is due to the premature deaths of gang bangers who never paid into the system. Or if the life expectancy difference is due to higher newborn death rates.

Drkshapiro presents facts that shows that the differences are quite small if you make it to 65. If you consider the fact that low income wage earners get proportionally more SS than the (mostly white) high income wage earners then it could very well be that it is the white population that is getting the short end of the stick.

The group that really benefits disproportionally is the one income family. The wife automatically gets 50% of the husbands benefits eventhough only the husband paid into the system.
Aztrader
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Ask any employer and they will tell you that it's completely BS that they have to contribute half the tax. We all know that it simply means that the employee is getting less money, but more and more the entitlement group think about a living wage and not what they are paying into this ponzi scheme.
Every taxpayer should pay 100% of the tax so that they can see what is really happening. With the dumbing down of the country, so many people just see this as another entitlement and it needs to change.
Slashing Medicare benefits is a must. We need to actually do what the more socialist countries do and start slashing the benefits, the older you get. Putting a 90 year old on life support is crazy as is doing invasive surgeries at that age at huge risk and expense.
I had this argument with a neighbor last week. I told her there was no money to keep everyone alive until their 100 years old. We need to slash and burn the benefits for the people that beyond live expectancy and she told me that the government isn't God and can't make those cuts. These people are sooooo f'in stupid. And this is why the SS scam is such an easy subject for the liberal left. There is no more candy and they just don't get it.

The comments on SSDI is a very pointed subject today. What they consider "disabled" is pathetic and too many people are using "depression" as an excuse. If they are so depressed, then so why should that matter to the rest of us. How many of us struggle every day in our businesses and have to keep that stiff upper lip no matter how bad things get. We don't run to the Govt for free money so we can lay around and watch Oprah... Disabled should mean blindness or missing a limb. Add in the fact that the so called disabled minor children get checks too. More strain on a system that is already broke.
This election proved a point that the free **** army is out of control. We know that if the benefits are cut, rioting will happen. Guess that's why the rest of us own guns.
Pay_lay_ale
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SS, like every form of insurance, has winners and losers. There's all sorts of people from every racial background and of both sexes that end up as losers in the with SS. If I get murdered when I'm 64, I get nothing, for instance. If I die of heart disease at age 64, I collect neither Medicare nor SS.

You also ignore the fact that blacks pay less into the system.

If you want to start talking about life expectancy and race, whites do not have the longest. That's Asians, especially those of Japanese descent. I hardly think that FDR, who illegally put people of Japanese descent into concentration camps, intended for them to collect the most in SS.
Genesis
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A black guy who is murdered when he's 26 but had a job worked and thus paid into the system but gets zero.

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Standby
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If you put in $1,902 annually, compounded annually at 5.0 percent over 45 years, you would have about $318,937.00. I don't think it's unreasonable to include a 5.0 rate of return.
Cvdoc
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Drkshapiro is right on. The debate is moot. Nothing will change until there is no money to feed "the beast". As a doctor, I love your third point Gen. I'd love the transparency, so would patients. But the Government-Medical complex will never allow it. It's part of the "nanny-state" control that is killing this country.

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Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
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Genesis
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There is no "rate of return" on these funds since the system has been PAYGO since inception, and in fact is BY LAW not an annuity.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Pj
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The comments section at that Times article is unbearable. It's like these people think the Lord himself has mandated that Social Security be solvent forever. I bet there were a lot of Greeks who thought the same way about their SS before they took a 40% cut in bennies since 2007.

SS is solvent.....Until it isn't. Then the pain begins.

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When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.” Edward Gibbon
Genesis
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If they wanted it to be solvent then they shouldn't have stood for Clinton raiding it, or Obama cutting the tax that funds it.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ckaminski
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Quote:
I don't think it's unreasonable to include a 5.0 rate of return.


How's that worked out for the majority of America since Y2K?

Standby
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I'm just saying, if the money went directly into my own personal account, that would be the amount which I could use to cover medical costs in my old age. And even though the government doesn't credit me with interest on this money, somebody made out. It may have been a stupid use of the money but somebody profited. Boy, they don't think anything of an 8% return for government workers adjusted for inflation on everything. GD'ed them. That's probably where my 5% went.
Ckaminski
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I'm just saying that a 5% return often comes at the price of 2-4% inflation. I'd rather get .5% and no inflation than 5% and variable inflation. Hell, I'd rather get 0% and no inflation. :-/
Pj
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Standby, your 5% is a gimp living in a trunk under Ben Bernanke's bed wearing a ball-gag!

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When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.” Edward Gibbon
Pay_lay_ale
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"If you put in $1,902 annually, compounded annually at 5.0 percent over 45 years, you would have about $318,937.00. I don't think it's unreasonable to include a 5.0 rate of return."

"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." Kenneth E .Boulding

If you had a penny at the time of Christ and earned a "reasonable" 5% annual return on that, you'd have a ball of gold larger than the entire Earth and almost the entire solar system.

There's been brief periods throughout history where exponential growth has occurred, but only for awhile. First was agriculture, then the industrial revolution, the large scale exploitation of oil, and now the information age. It's just so happened that 3/4 of those big leaps has occurred in the last 150 years and made it look like a 5 or 10% annual return is quite reasonable. That can't be sustained.

The amount of land and resources is quite limited. Unless we invent cold fusion or something and can start doing cheap desalinization, we're gonna run out of water and arable land to sustain the world pop. The envirowackos complain about global warming and capitalism, but they ignore the huge threats of desertification, deforestation, and declining quality freshwater supplies.
Standby
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Yeah, it's the over population that's gonna kill us but are those words ever uttered or do they appear in print any more?

They sure know how to make money disappear. And, boy, have they turned that smoke and mirrors thing into a science.

Too bad I didn't inherit a hoard of pre-sixties coinage. GD'ed 'em.

Vernonb
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Quote:
Sure, the relative "unfairness" of Social Security by race could be "fixed" by letting black people (and men) draw benefits earlier. Don't see THAT happening. Alternatively people could take more responsibility for their own health, as KD routinely advises.


Going with Karl's "assessment" that blacks/women could have their relative retirement ages reduced/increased based on expected life span to make the system fair, I'm going to have to shake my head. Why stop there?

Let's add more government plans for 'equality' and 'economic justice' <sarcasm>. Social security is nothing but a tool for SOCIAL CONTROL , social conditioning and wealth redistribution. Look how seniors react and vote the moment there is any talk in reducing 'benefits.'

Why not additional taxes for the morbidly obese – most are in low income ranges already. They can buy all the carbs they need with food stamps to escalate the their issues. Please don't feed the ____________.

We have affirmative action – why not affirmative forced retirement.? This would give the next generations access to jobs? What's next on the list reparations? It is time to kill the diseased beastly programs and all the convoluted entitlement thinking.

Certain areas of the country seem to have higher life expectancy. Certain occupations have higher death rates than others. Let's make sure all the affected populations can get a fat retirement packages after 20 years like police and certain other "public servants."

What about the coal miners that put their lives on the line everyday and the occupational diseases they face? The fact is occupational diseases can force EARLY retirement from the destruction of the body. Of course the system is scaled and can be gamed by contacting your representative to get SS when you can no longer work. If it is an occupational injury, the employee and employer are both to blame – not the US taxpayer.

What about people that contribute to the system with known genetic diseases that are productive citizens that will have their lives cut even shorter and never receive one iota from that program? Shouldn't we allow these unfortunates to take and even earlier retirement to get something? I fall into this category. What about a predisposition to heart disease or cancer? If your DNA test shows the classic markers, shouldn't you be be allowed to enjoy a retirement while you still have some quality of life?

The fact is the system shouldn't even exist to start. Kill it now or make it strictly TRULY voluntary. I'd stop right now if it were possible. I'd be able to use that money for investments and other issues now to make use for the later years. Its obvious the government doesn't know or care what it has done. Social security (a misnomer) is nothing but a tax. The money goes to the general fund. My money is used by the government to further create more social conditioning and to cultivate the free **** army. I don't need the 'gubberment'. I want it to leave me alone. I can't avoid politics as politics will never leave me alone.

It would be a hell of a lot easier and more in my control to leave something to my family and kids that they can acquire at ANY age if I were to die. The government locks up my income from my family and then attempts to steal more of my property through inheritance taxes. Of course this means self-responsibility.

The more honest thing to do is to simply stop payments (after inflation adjustment) from the time paid in if the system is kept. It must also be voluntary.

When I hear of genetic diseases it always makes me wonder why nature would create such a variant in an organism. Even high blood pressure is likely caused because of some genetic need in the past that has followed mankind into the future.

In conditions where salts were easily depleted or scarce, the variation for the kidneys to retain salts would have the been beneficial at the time. In this modern age high salt, high sugar diet is likely the cause of 99% of issues with relatively 'normal' people. The kidneys also regulate red blood cell production.

Fix the diet and lifespan and health will dramatically improve for anyone. Start taking responsibility for yourself.

Below is an interesting article on blood pressure, selective genetics, and health issues.

http://hyper.ahajournals.org/content/49/....

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"The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants, and it provides the further advantage of giving the servants of tyranny a good conscience.”
-Alber Camus (1913-1960)
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