RIMM: Another One!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-23 08:30
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
Ignore this thread
RIMM: Another One!
 

Damn...

Research In Motion (RIMM) Ltd. surged 18 percent, the most in more than three years, after National Bank Financial said new BlackBerry 10 phone sales should be better than expected.

RIM rose to C$12.06 at the close in Toronto, the biggestgain since April 2009. The gain pared the stock’s loss this year to 19 percent. Trading of RIM shares in New York was closed for Thanksgiving today after the stock gained 5.7 percent to $10.26 yesterday.

Nothing like a massive short squeeze when the US market is closed and those who were foolish enough to go home short it Wednesday have nothing they can do to mitigate the damage.

I've been covering this in the videos and Ticks for the last few days; the stock has been trading amazingly well technically over the last week or so and has coughed up some insane short-term trading gains. 

This move is so far outside of my expectations that I'm not sure what to make of it; it's coming off a bit this morning pre-market, but that pattern has been one that the last few days has been extremely unsafe to short -- Wednesday it came back into a support level and then ramped like crazy, destroying anyone who was foolish enough to short into the morning weakness.

As a reminder this is a seasonally strong period for stocks and as such you're fighting the tape to begin with expecting things to go to hell between Thanksgiving week and the end of the year. And while many have left this company and its products for dead, I have long maintained that this is not a foregone conclusion.  I don't see anything from management that counts as "Break the Glass", which IMHO is the best and most-successful answer when you're a severe underdog (and RIMM, as of now, is) but if they manage to pull this off with simply executing on BB10....

If you're only a Ticker reader and trade, consider the increased access and content with Tickerforum you can enjoy as a gold donor.  If you know someone who's already a member and sign up for an account make sure you list their login ID on the signup form -- it'll get them a "thank you" if you become a donor (and then bring your friends and give them your id so you can enjoy the same benefit!)

Maybe I'll wind up liking the Holidays after all.... smiley

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info RIMM: Another One! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Digitlman
Posts: 330
Incept: 2011-03-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I will continue to maintain that it is a case of Too Little Too Late.

For my company, we moved 37 Blackberries over to iPhones. We were tired of RIMM global outages, and the iPhones have been more reliable.

Even though you can configure them for use with ActiveSync with BB OS 6 an up, 5 and lower are chained to a the BES server, which I'll bet most businesses can't get rid of fast enough.

It will be interesting to see if RIMM can come from behind, but I wouldn't put *my* money on it.
Irishblues
Posts: 283
Incept: 2010-12-18
Gold
Wisconsin
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
As Karl might say, "I hate the company, but I like money." As long as the company is soaring higher in the markets, take the relatively free money.
Striker754
Posts: 671
Incept: 2009-07-09

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
5 minute load times from startup. Random freezing requiring a battery pull. Hourglass at random times. Terrible battery life. Viewing spreadsheets, pdfs, etc is terrible. The internet browser is total 100% ****. What's there to like about BB? I don't see how people could switch from Iphones to BB given the garbage that BB has put out in the past regardless of how good BB10 is. That is assuming BB10 ever comes out...
Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Playbook, which effectively is BB10 in terms of the operating system and browser, has the best browser of any mobile device I've ever used. Period.

Battery life? Exemplary. Same deal -- power management under QNX just plain works. Power budget in a mobile device is difficult to get right but is a huge part of the total user experience.

IF that translates into the BB10 handsets it's a monster winner in the handset market in terms of Internet use.

But this isn't about the company, it's about the stock, and just as with BAC, on which I made a nice chunk of cash despite the fact that I think Bank of Scamerica is a terribly run firm, trading is about making money and if the goal is a green number on your screen you were a fool if you ignored the technical way the stock was behaving last week and didn't take advantage of it.

I started highlighting it last week in the videos along with TICKS and it has paid off BIG.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Pjstaff
Posts: 245
Incept: 2008-01-21
Green
Olympic Peninsula
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I own RIMM indirectly through Fairfax. Hoping BB10 ends up being the real deal. Plus I like anything that can give AAPL some competition. Congrats to those that got the timing of this move!

I'm not currently a gold member, just because I don't have the time to focus on trading. But if you're someone that is trading at least weekly, you really owe it to yourself to "go gold" and watch Karl's videos.
Mdm
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-13

South Florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I bought RIMM at 13.49 back in April. Still holding on hoping to make a profit. I think if BB10 is even mildly successful, making a decent profit should be no problem. Though obviously, my timing was way off on this one.
Striker754
Posts: 671
Incept: 2009-07-09

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Trading is fine and I definitely understand that. Congrats on the call. You did include commentary hinting at their long term prospects with BB10 though.

How many people know what a playbook is? How many know what an Ipad is? I don't think I saw one black friday ad for a playbook? They had to give the price a huge chop from 500 to 200 to even move the things. If the playbook is so great, why have they only sold 1.74M playbooks since the launch? AAPL sold 14M ipads last QUARTER.

The analyst upgrade today said they expected BB to ship 35.5M devices in fiscal year 2014. AAPL sold 27M iphones this past QUARTER.

Where's the excitement about BB10 launch? People were lined up around the store for the 5th iphone launch. No one tells their friends hey I'm waiting outside the store for the new Blackberry. I reckon the only folks that are going to be buying BB10 are govts and corporations but even they have started moving towards iphones.

They let the market get away from them and it is already heavily shifted to AAPL as seen from the above metrics. RIMM was a complacent dinosaur with their inferior products and thought AAPL wouldn't even compete. As a result, RIMM has put out the same old same old relative garbage for years. With their track record, how are they gonna convince those people to give up the iphone and come back to BB?

Maybe I'll eat crow on this but I think they are too far behind to make a comeback. Too little too late as said above.


PS: Was just looking at RIMMs latest quarterly, why are they reconciling out 1001 million in amortization on their six month cashflow statement when the six month amortization charge on the income statement is only 360 million? Aren't those supposed to match? If not, why? Thanks

http://www.rim.com/investors/documents/p....

Gamma
Posts: 5554
Incept: 2008-01-20
Gold
Northern CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Where's the excitement about BB10 launch? People were lined up around the store for the 5th iphone launch. No one tells their friends hey I'm waiting outside the store for the new Blackberry. I reckon the only folks that are going to be buying BB10 are govts and corporations but even they have started moving towards iphones.


Couple of things. I guess this would fall under the topic of "perspective". You/we are not going to see anything out of RIMM that looks like "excitement" compared to AAPL and its various offerings; and the theatre they encourage with their new product launches, et al. That's simply not in the cards, nobody expects RIMM to displace AAPL nor even achieve 1/500th the excitement. Hell, many people on this forum like their Samsung stuff as much or more than AAPL (me, I have a larval cel phone and so I'm not even in on this) and Samsung doesn't have any sort of cachet, at least as far as I can tell. Yet many users are very happy and technically impressed with their Sam. There just isn't this religious component as there is w/AAPL. It's all AAPL, all the time---both for the product and until quite recently, for the stock. Point being, looking for even miniscule excitement out of RIMM is looking for the wrong thing in the wrong place.

This was not that kind of play, as far as the stock. This was similar to the Sprint play, buying at maximum pessimism, company left for dead, basically on a well-studied crapshoot that the next piece of news would *not* be bankruptcy as seemingly exemplified by a towering short interest in the stock. Further, the market reaction of such a stock with so much short interest is very likely to be explosive to the upside. The bet is simply betting on reverse gravity.

Thirdly, I've rarely found that betting on stuff that is already "in the news" is anything but late, late. If it's in the news, it's in the stock. Strategically, with stock picking/speculating, you have to be a bettor on "what's next", not "what's known". This is the classic safety conundrum wrt stockpicking: If you know enough to know for sure that stock is "safe" (when in truth, none of them really are) then the pump that will be in the stock by that time makes you buy it at or near a top; actually increasing your risk or, limiting/reducing your upside potential.

And finally, the price movement available to single-digit stocks can be dramatic, on a percentage basis, compared to $500 or $600 stocks. This isn't a reco to go rooting around for unknown penny stocks or anything like that. But in a market where things look generally fully priced with no shortage of dirtbag news and macro economic stuff going on...the stage is set for little jewel stories. You're looking (in this case) for things that are under the radar when you buy and way up on the radar sometime later.







----------
This stuff we're going through, this is nothing compared to the Middle Ages.
They told me if I voted for John McCain, an idiot would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Sure enough...

Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep.

All I'm after is profit

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Novid
Posts: 92
Incept: 2010-06-25

Philadelphia
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The market isnt ****ing stupid folks. APPL is a powerkeg waiting to happen and Samsung is so propped up by Googles OS's it isnt even funny. What they saw in BB10 blows away every damn thing the mobile space as seen ever. Of course folks going to cash out now and those that wait will cash out even more. For Me, a cell phone without all that "hipster" or "brony hipster" nonsense.

What im more worried about is how Moodys is playing everybody with this Sony Junk call when Samsungs TV are 20X worse than Pannies or Bravias.
Irishblues
Posts: 283
Incept: 2010-12-18
Gold
Wisconsin
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mdm wrote..
I bought RIMM at 13.49 back in April. Still holding on hoping to make a profit. I think if BB10 is even mildly successful, making a decent profit should be no problem. Though obviously, my timing was way off on this one.

Sorry, I bought in yesterday under $12 - and for some inexplicable reason, for the last 4+ years every time I've bought into a stock, no matter how great it looks fundamentally or technically, it instantly takes a dirt nap. Most of the time it finally recovers and I can get out with a profit - but that usually takes a while.

Blame me as much as you'd like.
Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Morgan Stanley is dissing it this morning and the shorts are out playing once again.

This will be the game for quite a while, I suspect.... but there are still people claiming the "projected launch date" for BB10 is March.

Nope -- January, and the handsets are in test.

The market ****-napping in general with the Euro blowing sky-high (along with commods) is helping with the pile-on.

As I said at the time buying into the ramp was DANGEROUS since the 50% was down at $10.75! Well, there you go....

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Antone
Posts: 7663
Incept: 2008-02-03
Green
Seditionia, USSA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Phew, glad I unloaded the vast majority of my shares yesterday. Will be looking to possibly get back in after this current sell-off subsides. (Cost basis $7.13)

----------
As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.

Oldpool
Posts: 873
Incept: 2010-06-23
Silver
LI NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Most actively traded options on Tuesday or Wednesday $10 puts @ .27. She cant hold $12 look out below. Retrace to $7 and less?

----------
Liberty, Comrade!
Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Sold to you.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Oldpool
Posts: 873
Incept: 2010-06-23
Silver
LI NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I forgot to buy those options....

----------
Liberty, Comrade!
Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Good thing eh? smiley

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ