Claims: +410k (Oops)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-21 08:45
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Claims: +410k (Oops)
 

From The Department Of Lies:

In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for  seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 386,750.

The previous week was (as usual) revised up from 439k to 451k.

This just plain sucks.

Steve Liesman is trying to pump Christmas (of course) but the reality is something different, as the claims data shows.

Hmmm....  wait a second here.

Last week's numbers were the 15th's.  These numbers were from two weeks earlier, ending on the 3rd, and they show a huge increase in regular state claims along with a big increase in EUC.

Now granted, Sandy came ashore that week.  But most claims offices couldn't process anything during that week.  So is this data from the actual storm week or is it back-dated?  One has to wonder here, but what's not a wonder is that a quarter-million people went onto unemployment that week while unions were turning away non-union electrical workers who tried to show up and help restore power.

Yeah.....

I think we have an ugly surprise coming in the December Jobs Report folks.... in fact, given what I'm seeing here I think an expectation of a negative print had better be in the forefront of your mind, because I'm starting to have trouble seeing how we avoid it.

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Comments.......
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User Info Claims: +410k (Oops) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Fraudster
Posts: 4171
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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So let me get this straight. A hurricane washes up onshore. The storm causes employers to fire more people. AND the claims office is open the entire week. Have I got it right? smiley

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Randy123
Posts: 5767
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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451 last week is a lot. Yucky

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Raven397
Posts: 5
Incept: 2012-10-27

Cincinnati OH
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How significant was Sandy in affecting claims, anyhow? it only affected NY and NJ for three days of the month, Oct. 29 to 31 anyhow...
Apotheoun
Posts: 1278
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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"I think we have an ugly surprise coming in the December Jobs Report folks.... in fact, given what I'm seeing here I think an expectation of a negative print had better be in the forefront of your mind, because I'm starting to have trouble seeing how we avoid it."

I smell some extra fraud in the works...

I have 3 friends who work in the unemployment office for MN and let me tell you what, the fraud there is so bad it isn't even funny. They complain about it all the time (and yes they are Dems and somehow this actually strengthens their views)and there is nothing they can do about it.

so I bet if the powers that be think it matters enough I bet they will just fudge the numbers a little bit more than they usually do. I highly doubt what they see is an isolated event and none of the other states do the same.


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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Land of Tax and Spend
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Costs are up. And going up again. Squeezing more income.

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section....

Forrest Claypool, CTA president.
The passes, which Claypool says are mostly used by visitors to Chicago, have been heavily subsidized for years.

Under the new fare schedule, the cost of a 30-day pass will go from the current $86 to $100, the seven-day from $23 to $28, the three-day from $14 to $20. The single day pass will nearly double, going from $5.75 to $10.



CNBC - Santelli announcement this morning on the unemployment numbers.
.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=300....

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Ee4fire
Posts: 87
Incept: 2011-03-24

Washington, DC
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When do we start the Department of Propaganda to tell us what we are seeing is not real? Or would it be Czar of Propaganda?

We get the gov't we deserve. Lets vote for more FREE STUFF! YEAH!

You better not pout! You better not cry! Obamaclause is coming to town!

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“(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.


Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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We can take this to the bank through the Christmas season...

1) Any "misses" (and there will be many) will be blamed on Superstorm Sandy
2) Any "beats" (few though they're likely to be) will be evidence that "WE'RE SAVED - PRAISE OBAMA!!!!"

As good an excuse as any to basically ignore the news for the next month or so, methinks.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Crzymorse
Posts: 1183
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Maryland
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Another reason not to visit chicago
Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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That is about 90K above a normal expanding economy, meaning we are falling 400K jobs a month short of increasing the workforce percentage. Thats 5 million annualized. I guess the employment percentage will continue to shrink. When the free **** runs out, which it will, we could see unemployment go to 20%.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Captainkidd
Posts: 594
Incept: 2010-05-25
Silver
Pasadena, Texas
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Quote:
That is about 90K above a normal expanding economy, meaning we are falling 400K jobs a month short of increasing the workforce percentage. Thats 5 million annualized. I guess the employment percentage will continue to shrink. When the free **** runs out, which it will, we could see unemployment go to 20%.


Well, there you go again, looking at the cloud instead of the silver lining.
Didn't you hear, or have you forgotten?

The chosen one has been re-elected. He has proclamied we are in recovery.

And he has 4 more years continue the glorious recover we are enjoying.

/sarc

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Medicdan
Posts: 8007
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Scottsdale, AZ
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I blame Sandy now and 36 months going forward.

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Arizona & desert gardening
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Colk55
Posts: 2413
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Indiana
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NSA claims from last week were revised upward as well, to over 478K. 'Tis the season, it's just a matter of how bad the numbers are compared to last year and right now they're not looking good.

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
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