Bears Should Beware Thanksgiving Week
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-19 09:09
by Karl Denninger
in Investing
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Bears Should Beware Thanksgiving Week
 

Last Thursday I recorded a video (available to gold-level donors on Tickerforum) in which I pointed out the analog between the 2008 declines in the stock market and what we were seeing since the election.

There was a large difference in amplitude, but the timing and similarity in terms of where the market was, with a substantial level of congruence, striking.

My warning was quite simple -- the decline wasn't over in 2008 on Thanksgiving, of course, but you were playing with fire getting short in size coming into that expiration for the same reason you were last Friday -- the option skew was well into silly territory and the market itself was pretty-seriously oversold.

Those two ingredients don't always produce a rip-your-face-off move northbound, but they do frequently enough that it's unwise to bet against it with money you can't afford to lose.

Friday the market bottomed at 1343.35 with the /ES at 1340.25. 

This morning we find the futures 30 handles, or approaching 3%, higher, and the futures are over +10 which is often a threshold for a "gap-and-go" rip.

I don't see a solution to the so-called "fiscal cliff", and everyone on CNBC is talking about "money on the sidelines."  As in "buy buy buy" Cramer nonsense.

I love how everyone talks about how the market is "spring-loaded" when the move has already, to a significant degree, happened!

There is no actual solution to the fiscal cliff folks.  As I have repeatedly pointed out what we keep screwing with are half-solutions and lies rather than anything that can actually solve the problem.  The reason for this is quite simple in the main: We have lied for more than a decade about economic progress -- there has been none.  It has all been borrowed and bought forward, and the ability to do that has now ended.

Paradigm shifts, when they happen, just are.  The folks who recognized the housing bubble blowing up -- when I started yelling about Washington Mutual paying dividends with earnings that didn't really exist but rather were capitalized interest on houses that had already started to decline in value and were underwater the bell had rung.  Yes, it took more than a year for the depths of the destruction that was to come to be recognized from that point, but the paradigm shift had already happened and in fact the shift occurred about a year prior to that when those home values peaked.

We're in the same situation now with fiscal reality.  The driver of alleged "economic growth" over the last two decades was unbridled credit creation that presented a view of growth that was factually not happening.  In point of fact were sliding slowly backward and accumulating debt instead of making progress.  This exponential process is what set off the collapse in housing and the markets, and instead of addressing it we tried what was done in 2000 to shift and expand that leverage once again.

That experiment has failed; we now have enough data to know this is a fact, not an expectation.

What is the fair value of a market that has no exponential debt expansion in it?  I don't know with certainty, but I know it's much lower than that for a market featuring that expansion.  Is it half of a market with that expansion?  Probably -- and likely more, because a "level" system is not what you get when things mean-revert -- you undershoot just as you overshot.

In short this is a nice Turkey week and those who piled in last week short are now staring at big red numbers this morning.  But this was one of the best-telegraphed bounces with a hard analogue that wasn't that hard to recognize.

If you got caught by it step back and re-think both strategy and money management, and look for the corner when recognition returns.  If not -- if you were on the ball, then enjoy the bright green numbers you woke up to this morning -- but don't fall in love with it for more than the next few weeks.

And if you're reading this and not a Tickerforum gold donor, consider joining us at the gold level of donorship and enjoy the trading videos along with much-enhanced access of the system.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Bears Should Beware Thanksgiving Week in forum [Market-Ticker]
Seobook
Posts: 35
Incept: 2010-09-05
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When referencing your recent videos & such, wouldn't it be a good idea to directly link at them? That way people can sort of get a feel for what they miss out on & anyone who is a subscriber but doesn't know the site's structure too well can quickly see what you were referencing. :)
Genesis
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Directly linking at them is pointless since you can't see them unless you're a gold donor, and you can't directly link at them anyway as the video server doesn't allow that.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Seobook
Posts: 35
Incept: 2010-09-05
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Perhaps I view things more through the eyes of a marketer than a person who tracks the stock market, but absolutely an error message page which indicates one must have a subscription in order to view the content on the other side can indeed significantly lift conversion rates.

I run a membership website myself (about online marketing) and saw lifts in conversions when I did this sort of "link to a page for members" strategy on our blog. Granted, I don't do it often (maybe only 2 or 3 times over 4 or so years)...but when I do I figure it is worth linking at a page that loads fine for those who have access & what amounts to a "please subscribe" page for those who don't.

You would also lift the recurring revenues significantly here by having an automated subscription option available. I have donated a couple times, but would likely be willing to have an automated subscription set up so Paypal automatically deducted it each month if that option were available.

Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
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saint louis
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Not a gold - don't trade anymore. It used to be easy 4 years ago. Not so much now. What's it tell you though if this rally doesn't hold today and we sell off into negative territory by the close?

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Genesis
Posts: 130807
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SEO, automated renewals are one of my hot buttons. Yes, I know it substantially lifts revenues.

It also steals from people who don't really use what they're buying. I don't believe in grabbing that which is unintentionally handed over.

Finally, it is one of the largest drivers of chargebacks and disputes, and with good cause.

A lot of people are ok with that, but I'm not in a format like this. When I ran MCSNet I permitted it but only with a signed piece of actual paper.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Seobook
Posts: 35
Incept: 2010-09-05
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Gotcha on automated renewals.

Our biggest chargeback issue thusfar was when someone from Vietnam stole a ton of credit cards & used them to set up subscriptions in order to try to get affiliate commissions. Sadly, in spite of Paypal's massive size we noticed the problem before they did...but it still wasted a day of my life.

A couple options for getting that lift without feeling bad about it...
- you can emphasize that it is recurring (whereas many sites hide that in small print)
- you can automatically cancel subscriptions that have failed payments
- you can automatically cancel subscriptions that have not logged in during the past x weeks / y months
- you can offer a variety of payment lengths that are automated
- you can offer different price-points/discounted rates for automated recurring vs non-recurring payments

just watched that video :) good stuff, as always

Johnny
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Silver
Kentucky
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Seobook...you're coming off as obnoxious...
Genesis
Posts: 130807
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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My thing on automated renewals is a philosophical difference and isn't going to change.

The system already sends you out an email warning before your gold status expires. If also tells you immediately when it DOES expire via a screen that pops up telling you that your user classification has changed.

There's no chance you'll accidentally have it happen and not know it did, which means that if you intend to not have it happen you'll immediately fix that.

It's a philosophy thing -- in my view nobody should ever give money to someone they didn't intend to.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Just do it the way the magazines do. Give the first year for $10 and have them automatically renewed at the prevailing rate. Golf Digest tried that **** on me and I moved to Golf. Golf had the same option but also gave an option to pay by check. I took the pay by check option. **** those slimy bastards at Conde Nast.

I'm with you Gen. No one should be charged for that which they don't want. Anything else feels a little slimy.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Poodlelover
Posts: 147
Incept: 2012-02-02

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Automated renewals are an annoyance at times and I like your approach of not automatically assuming it. Amazon has auto for Prime, which is fine as I love it, but I think sites should make it optional. Since I'm aware of none that do, I sometimes force it optional myself using one-time use credit card numbers. E.g. I signed up for Hulu lately with a 7 day trial that will automatically renew after 7 days. Actually, it won't; the number I used doesn't exist anymore. I shut it down within minutes of the trial, this way I need not remember to cancel it.
Eaglewwit
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To get the thread back on track. I don't expect a selloff today. The volume is too low. Low volume always means irrational market.
Asimov
Posts: 104068
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Gold
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Volume is lower than it has been the last few days but it's nowhere NEAR holiday volume today. It's pretty close to the 30dma so far. [Edit: I only have data on the first 30m and first 1hr so far, so this could change.]

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22

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Besides the stock markets, the US has major assets in bonds, businesses and real estate. Real estate in particular still seems to have the highest debt exposure or leverage. Just wondering what the potential scenarios are for the rest of the economy if US consumption and employment decline.
Genesis
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smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Gweedo
Posts: 100
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Florida
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^^^ Nice...

Donethat... I was wondering the same thing. Am I the only one who thinks we're setting ourselves up for another RE bubble?

Apparently, it's on purpose: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/1....

Just for grins we looked around for a home in the area over the last 3 months to "upsize" since interest rates were so low. I can't believe what I got approved to take on... I'm not dumb enough to take the loan I'm approved for. Adding taxes and insurance would double my cost of living in homestead and related maintenance.

Regardless, I really get the impression that there's an inventory squeeze-play going on:
1) Shadow-inventory kept off market (and on the books)
2) limited REO inventory on the market (so as not to compete with Short Sales or REOs)
3) and lowered lending standards and interest rates to drive up sale prices.

Needless to say, we decided to stay put in the smaller house and make it work with some room layout changes. We love the location and have a history of taking care of our property, which I can tell you from what's on the market... I'm shocked at the condition of most stuff on the market for sale.

It's obvious the game is stacked, but is it setup for another housing bubble? I'm putting my money where my mouth is and not buying.

Newcub14
Posts: 423
Incept: 2007-08-26

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Gweedo said:

Quote:


Donethat... I was wondering the same thing. Am I the only one who thinks we're setting ourselves up for another RE bubble?


Not trying to be an @sshole here - but what rock have you been living under? Fed bought rates first and foremost maintain inflated assets and 2. help govt deficit spend.
Landman
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Gweedo - The answer re: Housing Bubble is Yes.

Check out the new Freddie loan program being offered in FL and GA. Note the no appraisal, no mortgage insurance and low down.

http://www.homesteps.com/homesteps/finan....

Crzymorse
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I don't think it's another real estate bubble. We do have an influx of foreign money coming in from all the world buying up real estate as it's a relatively safe haven to invest money and interest rates are low. Remember that $15B a year we pumped into Pakistan to help them "hunt for" Bin laden for the last ten years is going to come back here and prop up all sorts of assets. I'm also sure the elites in Pakistan are highly upset we found Bin Laden as it screwed up the gravy train.

I look for an immigration reform bill that allows for a large influx of future taxpayers to help grow the economy. We have half-empty cities and houses we need to fill. This is also a way to grow the consumption and investment part of GDP and will try to offset the expected decrease in deficit spending so you don't see the GDP contraction in the whole. For example, the State of Maryland passed a ballot initiative that gives illegal immigrants in-state tuition. While the initiative is currently restrictive it is the camel's nose under the tent whose only purpose from what I can tell is to bring immigrants into Baltimore city.



Asimov
Posts: 104068
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Unlike earlier, volume is most definitely holiday levels now.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
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Green
saint louis
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Landman - those are only available on Home Steps homes. Foreclosed homes owned by Freddie. These should be bought at a discount to market value. That program doesn't suggest to me that it will be causing a housing bubble.

My personal belief is that we have experienced a dead cat bounce of sort on home values. I think that home values going forward depend upon the actions of those in power. If they do the right things you will see deflation and housing will fall in price as well as incomes and the prices of most everything. If you see the Fed continue to QE to allow government deficit spending then you'll see housing prices rise. They will not rise as fast as commodities though and neither will incomes rise as fast as commodity prices.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Donethat
Posts: 771
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Gen, Yes those are my thoughts also, have been for 4.5 years now. But with MF Global and friends today's scenarios are so much worse.
I hear about sellers getting multiple offers today but yes there is only going to be so much demand going further.
People making 10 or 15 bucks an hour for 30 hours a week, are not going to be able to buy much house or pay much property tax.
Wis/min
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On the border
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Quote:
The system already sends you out an email warning before your gold status expire
I almost never see it as it probably gets tossed with the rest of the tickerforum notifications that i do not read the message, only the subject line.
Nelstomlinson
Posts: 124
Incept: 2011-12-21

Juneau Alaska
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Crzy, I understand about foreign demand being real, not bubble. Still, around the world, we've seen so many times that when the foreign money floods in, that often marks a top. Don't bet on the foreign money being smart money in a market that is strictly local, as any real estate market must be.
Crzymorse
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Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Nelstom, absolutely agree with you, it's probably marks a top.
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