Philly Fed: Sucks in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-11-15 10:14
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

Philly Fed: Sucks

Firms responding to the November Business Outlook Survey reported declines in business activity this month following the disruptive effects of Hurricane Sandy on the region. The survey’s indicators for general activity, which had shown improvement in October, fell back into negative territory this month. Firms reported slight declines in shipments, employment, and hours worked. Indicators for the firms’ expectations over the next six months were near their levels in the previous month, but expectations for future employment and capital spending have weakened in the last two months.

You have to love how they blame this on Sandy; I don't buy it.

The general activity index detonated along with both new orders and shipments, both of which were negative previously. And employees and workweek, while not declining as fast as last month, are still in decline.

The major point here is that Sandy didn't drop either employment index; the premise that the storm was involved in this thus looks tenuous at best, as it does not appear to have had any sort of impact on the firms in this region on a direct basis.

Of course there may be some in terms of consumption of what these firms produce, but that should -- if true -- shortly return due to rebuilding.

I don't think so -- I think last month was an anomaly and we're in for a series of additional negative prints, but we shall see.

Incidentally this report and more-importantly the series of reports from the regionals screams "Inbound Recession!"

Discussion below (registration required to post)

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User Info	Philly Fed: Sucks in forum [Market-Ticker]
Asimov Posts: 103922 Incept: 2007-08-26 East Tennessee Eastern Time	What I wanna know is why the **** the market is moving up on a number that bad. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2012-11-15 10:17:19 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 130702 Incept: 2007-06-26	The obvious answer is that the so-called "embargo" was nonsense. ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* 2012-11-15 10:22:56 Permalink
Nelstomlinson Posts: 124 Incept: 2011-12-21 Juneau Alaska	When you say market, do you mean the playground for the fed and its HFT minions? Why would that be affected by news? 2012-11-15 10:27:46 From PDA Permalink
Asimov Posts: 103922 Incept: 2007-08-26 East Tennessee Eastern Time	Karl: Yea, probably. Maybe known yesterday too - that might explain the nasty divergences in some indicators. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2012-11-15 10:31:01 Permalink
Crzymorse Posts: 1189 Incept: 2010-06-25 Maryland	No worries, the fed can lower the fed funds rate, or add something new called QE or we can cut taxes some more. As a last resort we can deficit spend to stay out of a recession. I have a feeling the next recession is going to be a dozy as we ran out of grease for the skids. 2012-11-15 11:19:04 Permalink
Grunwald Posts: 255 Incept: 2012-06-01 Seattle	Did we really ever exit the recession? I know that using the academic definition we might have (although I be damn if I trust any of the numbers completely), but in practical terms I think we are still there and the current crop of clown school graduates are blindly navigating this ship of fools. 2012-11-15 13:19:37 From PDA Permalink
Lenguado Posts: 1272 Incept: 2010-01-12 Orlando, FL	Ok, now I'm REALLY confused. All those broken windows are supposed to be great for the economy - RIGHT?!?!?!? Unemployment should have gone down - not up. Unless that is, I don't understand the "Broken Window" economic theory very well. . . Maybe I need to go back and read Krugman some more so I can try to noodle it out. I'm sure that he can't be wrong about this. Next week I am sure we will see ALL these economic numbers turn completely around. Count on it!!! /sarc ---------- I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics" they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone! Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression 2012-11-15 15:01:04 Permalink
Lenguado Posts: 1272 Incept: 2010-01-12 Orlando, FL	Grunwald, Quote: Did we really ever exit the ~~recession~~*DEPRESSION? There FIFY, ---------- I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian* Economics" they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone! Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression 2012-11-15 15:05:30 Permalink
Grunwald Posts: 255 Incept: 2012-06-01 Seattle	Lenguardo, maybe you have called it Dipression - as in economic problems attributed to dip-**** leadership. 2012-11-15 15:53:19 Permalink

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