Empire Index: Now We're F*d
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-15 08:53
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Empire Index: Now We're F*d
 

Time to hoist up the flag again....

smiley

The November 2012 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers declined at a modest pace. The general business conditions index was negative for a fourth consecutive month, but was little changed at -5.2. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time since June, although it was only slightly positive at 3.1. The shipments index shot up twenty one points to 14.6, its highest level since May. The prices paid index fell three points to 14.6, indicating a modest increase in input prices, and the prices received index held steady at 5.6. Labor market conditions were noticeably weaker. The index for number of employees fell fourteen points to -14.6, a sharp drop to its lowest level since 2009, and the average workweek index drifted down to -7.9.

That will be that.

Both employment and the hourly index were trashed; as this is a diffusion index the direction of change tells you whether conditions are improving or degrading, but the absolute value must be positive or the actual conditions are negative -- that is, the change tells you the rate (accelerating or decelerating) but the sign tells you whether the month-over-month change is positive or negative at an absolute level.

New orders are just barely positive but the fact of the matter is that both employees and workweek have been on the decline for a good long while, with the trend deteriorating since July and the rate of change has become alarming in the negative direction when it comes to the number of people employed.

Remember, elections have consequences!

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Hogman
Posts: 7874
Incept: 2008-02-18
Green
Derby City, USA
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And they trash a man from Las Vegas for being proactive

He did save 92 jobs
Wearedoomed
Posts: 3586
Incept: 2009-01-14
Silver
slightly red state
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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Eli
Posts: 7215
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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And there are stories after stories about employers restricting hours worked to get under OBAMICED aka obamacare.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Poodlelover
Posts: 147
Incept: 2012-02-02

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"And there are stories after stories about employers restricting hours worked to get under OBAMICED aka obamacare."

Yeah but now with these peeps having to get a second part-time job, you can say the number of jobs created has gone up.
Eli
Posts: 7215
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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I don't think so. It is not going to work that way, when you were working 40 hours a week and they kick you down to 29 hours, there are not too many jobs where you can work just 11 hours.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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Hell Eli, when Obamacare kicks in and they keep lowering the "full time" hours to **** employers into paying more, ALL jobs like that will be 11 hours/week!

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Eli
Posts: 7215
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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Mother ****in A, Frat. And the hours worked will come through Presidential fiat.

They have created a downward spiral of government control that has enslaved the population and it all comes from the power of debt.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Cobra2411
Posts: 10352
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
Philly P.a.
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All Sandy...

Move along, nothing to see here...

And remember folks, buy the dip!

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To err is human. To really **** things up takes government.
Eli
Posts: 7215
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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Right on Cobra this all a nothing burger, just a little flesh wound.(got your sarcasm)

Other business are not going to follow the Hostess route either, where they just throw in the ****ing towel, and say **** it because the government decided to force them to eat all these health care costs.

Obamacide is working great! with health care cost rising instead of falling.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Cobra2411
Posts: 10352
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
Philly P.a.
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Obamacide

BHWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

Eli, you owe me a new keyboard...

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To err is human. To really **** things up takes government.
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1566
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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The funny thing is that when the government paints a target on "the rich" as being the only ones who need to "pay up", without J6P having to pay even one thin dime more, those evil rich bastards can take it personally and do things to say "F you" to the government, like laying off people, failing to hire people, reducing workers' hours, etc. In some cases, their vengeance against the government may work against their own economic self-interest, but they're rich and can afford it. Krugman and all of the Jonathans who write for the MSM alwas assume that people will earn as much as possible and will just have to pay whatever taxes are the consequence. But sometimes people will say F U. It may not be a perfect analogy, but it's like Hostess saying they'll shutter the company if the strike continues.
Cobra2411
Posts: 10352
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold A True American Patriot!
Philly P.a.
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J6p doesn't realize that for 100+ years taxes given to the rich have had a way of filtering down to everyone. Sell it by going after the evil rich bastards but once in place trickle it down to everyone...

The FSA and everyone too ignorant to understand what's going on deserves what's coming.

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To err is human. To really **** things up takes government.
Phxkevin
Posts: 353
Incept: 2010-06-25
Green
Phoenix Arizona
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Explain how trickle down economics works again? I guess that was sarcasm.

The FSA is just a bunch of corporations and individuals eating at the government pig trough. But I repeat myself.

Across the board cuts seem more and more attractive, even knowing that it will cause (or continue)a recession.

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Congress persons are all the same, republican or democrat, conservative or liberal. They talk a good game, but the results (or lack thereof) show something different.
Lenguado
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Orlando, FL
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OWN IT all those Obamabots out there....


All personnel, please stand-by for implementation of Presidential Directive 10-289. You can count on it.

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression

Raxon
Posts: 69
Incept: 2011-08-23

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Quote:
Explain how trickle down economics works again? I guess that was sarcasm.


I thought he was saying that at first too, but read more closely:

Quote:
J6p doesn't realize that for 100+ years taxes given to the rich have had a way of filtering down to everyone.


He said taxes on the rich filter down to everyone, which I think we can all agree on.

If you raise corporate taxes, guess what, items sold by said corporations will cost more to buy. You think the corporation is just going to eat the tax?
Xqqme
Posts: 627
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Green
Ohio
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"Weekend at Bernie's"
Pretty soon the dead guy starts to stink and it gets harder to cover up the facts.
Heisenberg
Posts: 92
Incept: 2012-09-21

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Quote:
Remember, elections have consequences!


What are the consequences? You guys on this forum had me convinced there is no difference between Obama and Romney. Since they're both equally evil, there is no lesser of two evils, it's just business as usual.
Lemonaid
Posts: 9882
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Green
Metro Detroit
Online
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When the American's attitudes and actions become like Russia, or Greece... the government is ****ed... permanently.

They can't get it back.

/people get very creative and vindictive in ****ing the man [government]

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises

Mo
Posts: 12158
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Pa.
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I wouldn't mind a 29 hour per week job about now. Maybe this whole thing is a way to get aging boomers to move aside from their full time jobs.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Grunwald
Posts: 264
Incept: 2012-06-01

Seattle
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<wouldn't mind a 29 hour per week job about now. Maybe this whole thing is a way to get aging boomers to move aside from their full time jobs.>

I am right there with you. About 8 years ago I had a consulting gig where my hours were from 8am to 10am. It was awesome. My billing rate was high enough to cover all the bills, so I really enjoyed it.
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