Retail Sales: -0.3%
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-14 09:36
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Retail Sales: -0.3%
 

From the Census Bureau:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $411.6 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above October 2011. Total sales for the August through October 2012 period were up 4.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2012 percent change was revised from 1.1 percent (±0.5%) to 1.3 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from September 2012, but 3.8 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 7.7 percent (±1.7%) from October 2011 and nonstore retailers were up 7.2 percent (±3.0%) from last year.

I find this an interesting report for a number of reasons, with one of the most-interesting being the distribution of gains.  For example, the gross gain from October 2011 was $20.418 billion.

Gasoline was $3.76 billion of that increase.  Autos were $5.955 billion; between the two that was nearly half of the advance.

In general the report was quite a bit more-solid that I had originally expected, given that Sandy was in there.  Another point is that unadjusted sales were actually up 3.5% -- so beware the so-called "seasonal adjustments" as well.

Verdict: Neutral to mildly-positive, which probably explains the market basically ignoring the release.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Retail Sales: -0.3% in forum [Market-Ticker]
Tesla
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Sandy would only have increased sales - everyone went on a shopping frenzy the weekend before the storm. Gas, batteries, flashlights, food...

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Magus
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Sandy was probably neutral to October (helpful over the weekend, hurt Mon-Wed)

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

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Dbongo
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IMO, post Sandy sales (through the holiday season) will be much better. Still believe we'll see best holiday sales in a few years at least. I've seen no drop off at mall/restaurant traffic in months.

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Mrbill
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^^^ This dbongo post brought to you by Yahoo Finance Forums.

Pumping random **** without any data since the dawn of the internet.
Magus
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I'm a bit more pessimistic about holiday sales than I was a month ago

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Dbongo
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‘Black Friday’ Shoppers Line Up Over One Week Early

WEST LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) — Retailers are concerned that bargain-hunting shoppers may be growing increasingly aggressive when it comes to the start of the Christmas shopping season.

KNX 1070′s John Brooks reports local stores are boosting security ahead of what could be a rowdy – and record-setting – Black Friday.
Analysts are predicting a 3.1 percent jump in sales from over a year ago when stores open the day after – or even as early as the night of – the Thanksgiving holiday next week.

Shoppers have already begun camping out at one Best Buy store location in El Cajon – the earliest that store managers say they have ever seen a line form.

Chaos ensued last November after one woman used pepper spray on fellow shoppers as store employees unveiled an Xbox display. About 20 people were treated at the scene for minor injuries. Police have yet to file charges against Elizabeth Macias, 33, whose attorneys say acted in self-defense during the melee.

This year, the store has hired 27 additional security guards – four of them armed – to be on hand when the shopping surge begins at 8:00 p.m. Thanksgiving night.

One woman said retailers have an obligation to protect their customers.
“Because they’re profiting from it, and they’re advertising, and they’re drawing those people there,” she said.

Los Angeles Police Department officers also plan on beefing up patrols in parking lots at several shopping centers next week, with officers on bikes, a mounted horse patrol, and even regular fly-overs by police helicopters.

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/11/1....

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Mayorquimby
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I agree with what Magus just wrote.

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Clintb350
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The Unemployed and Not in Labor Force (NILF) can camp out for Black Friday. Some of them may be "personal shoppers" for a commission.

Reason: NILF!
Mrbill
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Dbongo, why do you keep posting?

Yeah, CBS Local is doing some hard-hitting analysis there. Thanks for bolding that for us.

Bullish for the economy, people spending a week standing in line for cheap DVDs made overseas.

dbongo on Sept 14, the highest close in 4 years wrote..
Hitting new highs daily Js, it's buy high, sell higher my friend. This bull is nowhere near done going up.


Calling the top perfectly, you're only down 7.6% these two months.
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-w....

Asimov
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Over the last year, pork loin has gone from $0.99/lb to $2.19.

I don't think you can blame it all on sandy.

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If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Magus
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Meat prices (and costs), especially beef, have skyrocketed this year (and last year) and are predicted to do so again next year. Hard to judge an individual item (some stores run loss leaders or traffic builder promotions and then change the item after a while)--most pork products are only up about 3-5% across the country on average. Beef costs are up about 25% YoY for grocers.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
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