Greece: They're Still Dissembling
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-13 09:33
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Greece: They're Still Dissembling
 

Still no recognition of reality over in Europe....

Cash-strapped Greece on Tuesday raised the money it needs to avoid default when a Treasury bill matures later this week, but investor nerves are unlikely to be calmed as negotiations for the next slice of much-needed aid continue.

The rift among Greece's official lenders over how to pare the country's growing debt pile spilled into the open late Monday, complicating efforts for an agreement that will free up a long-delayed aid payment to the country. The European Central Bank's reluctance to provide additional money to Greek banks poses a risk to the government, which in order to keep afloat has depended on support from local banks to sell its debt.

Repeating lies does not make them truths.

Fiscal deficits are identical in economic form and function to a tax, but that tax falls not only on income ("earnings") but also on saved capital, and as a consequence is extraordinarily destructive to capital formation and thus economic progress.

"Financing" such deficits is identical in form and function to abusing stimulants to evade the requirement to sleep.  It "works" in the short term (that is, it allows you get up and go to work) but it slowly destroys the economic vitality of the nation (as this abuse destroys your health over time) and thus makes it more-difficult to find a sustainable balance and increases the amount of damage you must absorb when you cease the abuse.

The longer the lying goes on the worse the problem is.  Greece and the European Union cannot resolve their problems until they tell the truth.  The media is not doing its job so long as it continues to be a part of the lying. 

The United States cannot find a solution so long as we lie about the same thing; there is no simply no solution that comes from continued deficit spending, no matter how we allegedly "finance" it.

Greece is now headed for the wall with the pedal mashed to the floor, and the remainder of Europe is right behind them.  Some time in the new year, by my best estimate, Italy, Spain, France or all three will hit that wall.

And so, incidentially, will we in the United States.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Greece: They're Still Dissembling in forum [Market-Ticker]
Niti
Posts: 523
Incept: 2008-03-20
Gold
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I just met a guy who moved to the US from France 6 years ago. He moved because he thought Europe was in trouble. His wife has a good job here and he works retail. Anyway, had a long discussion with him, he believes France has major issues this coming year. Spot on Karl!
Jubber
Posts: 14642
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
as French bonds hit new highs! 10 y 2.047%

----------

“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Obseedian
Posts: 11887
Incept: 2007-07-26
Silver
BBRY Central
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
which in order to keep afloat has depended on support from local banks to sell its debt.

Cramming their dishonored paper down their banks' throats? Gee, what could go wrong?

smiley

----------
Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
Anti
Posts: 4374
Incept: 2007-10-09
Green

Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
After the Greek default, someone "will have to" bail out the banks.

This past Veterans Day I finally noticed that government holidays and bank holidays are the same. Lots of private sector workers going about their productive lives to support the leach-class.

----------
Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.

Advise01
Posts: 62
Incept: 2011-08-02

I thought I was in the USA?
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Ohioans’ food stamp aid to be reduced

Ohio families receiving food stamps could get an unwelcome surprise come January: $50 less every month in assistance.

http://www.toledoblade.com/State/2012/11....



Well the good news is they get to save half a billion a year bad news greek riots coming to a state near you.

----------
"Few political gifts are more richly rewarded, than the ability to convince parasites that they are victims."
- Dr. Thomas Sowell
Mdm
Posts: 338
Incept: 2010-10-13

South Florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
For countries that do not control their own currency, they are surely taking their time blowing up. This leads me to believe that while the US is certainly on the same path, it may take quite a bit of time before the blowup here happens. The Fed will game the system until the end. Gas may end up being $10 but they will blame it on some manufactured crisis in the Middle East and the majority will believe the lie.
Frat
Posts: 1939
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
With regard to Greece - how much is enough? I know the stereotype is they're lazy, socialist, .gov dependent, tax-evading people that want cradle-to-grave coddling by their government.... I don't know how this fits the standard Greek citizen, but hell people - YOU'RE DEBT SLAVES in the most extreme sense - to FOREIGN bankers for ****'s sake!

How much is enough for you folks!? The end is obvious; it's the timing that's in question. Seriously, how long will they live like this before they start fire-bombing foreign banks and businesses in-country?

I'm guessing gun ownership is quite low?

----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Jtmo3
Posts: 679
Incept: 2009-07-31

Missouri
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm not worried. If little ole Greece can prop this up for year after year after year, the US should be able to muddle through till...oh...2030 or so. I'm actually serious on this. I never thought we'd be able to play this crap this long 4 years ago. After watching the games, we aren't even close yet. Seriously.

Will it be steak and potato's through all this time? No. But if anyone thinks anytime in the near future, we're going to wake up to a worthless dollar and war in the streets, they ain't paying attention.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 651
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Frat x 2

Agreed completely. Then the next question is, what next. To do anything reasonable requires reasonable leadership, not individual sentiment. Without sound leadership an extremist demagogue of some sort will feed off the misery to become powerful.

The smart approach would be to stop paying back the debt. It was a bad investment choice, and those who invested in Greek bonds lose.

Then the Greeks can go back to the drachma, seriously de-valued, and as they won't be able to get credit they will need to learn to live within their means. It's about time.

----------
A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS

Reason: funny mistake
Ribbit
Posts: 1792
Incept: 2007-09-10
Green
Wales, UK
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Frat: "I'm guessing gun ownership is quite low?"

With the fairly low price of an AK47 in the back streets of Athens (stated by an elderly Diplomat that bought one for 100 euros, and his colleagues and friends have apparently been doing likewise), along with ease of availability, I think it says gun ownership is far broader than one might think, for pricing to be so competitive. 100 euros could well include a decent amount of ammunition and spare magazines.

Apparently other weaponry is not uncommon either.

With their experiences in WW2, and proximity to recent Balkan trouble spots (with the consequent ease of access to a wide range of kit at economic pricing), I don't think the Greeks are at all averse to holding personal stores of competence and capability.

----------
If the State was a Nanny, it would have been fired for incompetence, unreliability, and having its hands in the till, a very long time ago now.
Genesis
Posts: 131483
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
100 Euros for a fully-automatic AK47 (and I'm quite sure it is too, as we're the ones with the silly machine gun regulations) is quite cheap.

Then again there's a reason the Kalashnikov is thought of as the "people's weapon" -- because it pretty-much is.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Oliver1655
Posts: 22
Incept: 2012-08-02

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
We are heading for the concrete pilaster at 120 mph+

This is how it looks when it all goes wrong. There is simply no way to brace for these types of impact. Somehow the kid managed to survive though.

Link to graphic car crash. Hope I can get link to work. Can somebody assist and embed the Youtube clip directly?

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeTjXRbBH.... Goes Airborne And Hits Bridge Overpass</a>

Yaldor
Posts: 2690
Incept: 2008-05-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
A draft document prepared for eurozone finance ministers suggests that Greece should be given two more years to meet budget goals, but that this will add 32.6bn euros ($41.4bn) to its bailout.

why do we keep thinking that the US will do any different ?

for the P2B the issue has never been "the debt" the issue is how much it cost to carry the debt.

They keep inflating the currency (this help export) and rates are at ZIRP while QE reduce the amount the government needs to pay interest on - all this contribute to the cost of carrying the debt to be reduced while GDP is (fictitiously) maintained at positive territory.

So why would that stop ? We now see the end game of something that started 20 years ago with Greenspan. It may take 10- 20 more years to unwind.

----------
For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero

Fnamekeith
Posts: 478
Incept: 2008-04-07
Green
Seattle
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Gen, did you mean to infer a prediction that the US will hit the wall in the new year (last two sentences)? Maybe you meant that we'll hit the wall at some point - maybe next year, maybe not?

If you're saying next year, that's a ballsy call!

----------
Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
Friar_tuck
Posts: 1118
Incept: 2008-01-09

N. Cal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Greece sold millions of rounds of surplus 30.06 (M2 ball) to the CMP (formerly known as DCM) along with thousands of Garands a couple years ago.... Hmmm I wonder if someone didn't want thousands of riflemen running around in Greece...
Ribbit
Posts: 1792
Incept: 2007-09-10
Green
Wales, UK
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think they have a pretty fair capability with riflemen, etc., Friar_tuck:

http://www.armedforces.co.uk/Europeandef....


----------
If the State was a Nanny, it would have been fired for incompetence, unreliability, and having its hands in the till, a very long time ago now.
Caton
Posts: 32
Incept: 2010-10-24
Green
Neuilly-sur-Marne, France
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The ECB now has 200 billion euros of Greek paper on its balance sheet. The minute Greece defaults, the ECB blows up, along with the Eurozone. That's why the Euro cult leaders keep kicking the can.

And France, well... the French economy is effectively dead. It's flapping and flopping like a headless chicken, but that won't last long.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ