More Illustration Of America and The Media
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-12 08:51
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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More Illustration Of America and The Media
 

Read this article carefully, and pay attention to the nuances in it.

When the housing bubble burst in 2006, U.S. policy makers looked to Japan for clues about what to do -- and not do -- in response. Now their attention is shifting to Europe as America gets set to follow that region with a concerted attack on its budget deficit.

Among the lessons being drawn: Don’t put off budget action until the financial markets demand it. Big, immediate cuts aren’t always the best way to reduce deficits. And central bankers should be ready to try to offset the economic impact of any fiscal contraction.

Got that?

Unicorns are real.

What's coming out the back end of that alleged Unicorn is candy.

And it's yummy to eat, if you will just believe what all the smart people tell you.

Let's just get down to brass tacks: You can attempt to polish a turd, but it will always be a turd no matter how nice it looks.

Stock prices slumped last week partly on concern that Congress will allow about $607 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases to go ahead next year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) ended at 1,379.85 on Nov. 9, down 2.4 percent on the week.

“This would be self-inflicted, disorderly contraction that would unambiguously push our country into recession,”  Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages more than $1.9 trillion in assets, said in a phone interview.

It would be nice if El-Erian would tell the entire truth instead of just a piece of it.  What he says is true.  The part he's leaving out is that $607 billion is about half of the deficit spending we are doing right now and that the economy is factually in a recession and has been for the last four years with the federal government's deficits acting as a fraudulent device in an attempt to evade recognition of that recession.

Look, it's pretty simple when you get down to it: If you measure GDP in the unit of currency (dollars) then increasing the number of units of that currency in the system by deficit spending must be subtracted back out in order to get a unit-independent view of GDP itself.

You learn this in the first few years of school in your first algebra class but as soon as the topic turns to economics supposedly-smart people "forget" this and try to tell you that the laws of mathematics do not apply, because, well, they said so and they have fancy letters after their name like "BS", "MS" and "PhD." 

(Shall we discuss whether those monikers stand for bull ****, more **** and piled higher and deeper?)

GDP as currently constituted and reported allows for an outrageous amount of tampering by governments as a direct result of how it is denominated.  I would love to see GDP denominated in something that is utterly invariant within our rational governmental lifetime; say, square meters of solar energy flux at the equator.  This is a unit that we cannot "print" nor can we temporarily disrupt its equivalence (such as we can with barrels of oil, gallons of gasoline, or for that matter ounces of gold) and thus would provide us with a hard statistical base that could not be gamed.

Unfortunately we do not denominate our alleged economic output in something of that sort, although we could choose to.  As a result we wind up with articles similar to that in Bloomberg this morning where various pundits tell us that we "must not" do what Japan did (as they tell it, be "too timid") or what Europe did (as they tell it, stop deficit spending) lest we "suffer."

Note that nowhere in that discussion is an admission of the truth that we have been living a lie for decades.  We have presented to the world and operated in our lives as if actual economic output and demand that did not exist did; we have silently and through conspiracy and personal act stolen the accumulated wealth of both our nation and her people, expending it as if there was some limitless font from which we could draw, much like we attempted to do with oil in the ground even though we knew decades ago that the cost of extraction would rise and the cheap oil would all be burned up.  Now we're playing the same game with "fracking" and natural gas, with pundits by the hundreds or thousands (most with something to sell you, of course) telling us that a "new golden age of energy" is here in America, without bothering to mention that mathematically when you withdraw something from a finite reservoir at 10x the rate it only lasts 1/10th as long.

Back in the 1990s when I ran MCSNet I was astonished as the firm went from serving a few hundred customers to thousands in a very short period of time, placing incredible demands on both my time and ability to think faster than the technology was evolving.  It was not the meteoric rise of the Internet that got a rocket-level boost from the introduction of Windows 95 that made me sit back in my chair and wonder how stupid everyone was; rather it was the number of pundits, analysts and various economists who all argued that the growth rates we were seeing would continue for a very long period of time -- decades even.

I chuckled at such prognostications because just a few moments with a calculator led to the inescapable conclusion that at the rates of growth we were seeing every bacterium on the planet would have Internet access by 2020.   In 1998, seeing the inevitiability of what was to come but of course not knowing exactly how far the insanity would go, I sold the company and made sure I was both at minimum safe distance and was facing the other way before the bright flash burned out my eyeballs.

Likewise I look at this chart of Federal Medical Spending on the growth path from 1980 to 2011 and its forward projection and break out in peals of laughter at the prospect that we can somehow evade having the entire federal government and economy come crashing down around our ears:

Or our federal budget, which currently pays for only the interest, the light bill in the Capitol, the federal cops in their various uniforms, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security -- and then runs out of money about halfway through our $800 billion in defense:

 by genesis

Self-delusion is a powerful meme.  It is in fact the most-powerful and at the same time the most-dangerous, because it tends to be self-reinforcing, especially when you intentionally craft your tools toward your own deception.

A more-mundane example I have used before is found in the person who is under great pressure to perform in some form or fashion.  They discover that they can stick a little vial of cocaine in their inside suit pocket with a tiny little spoon and at 2:00pm as they begin to nod off they take a short "bathroom break" and up the nose goes one spoon.  There is that instant boost of energy, and the next three hours go by without a problem.

But the original energy deficit wasn't actually rectified; the snort-happy guy cheated, just as we have cheated.  It is not long before the drag comes on at 1:30 instead of 2:00, and the spoon comes out earlier and earlier.  Eventually one spoon becomes two, then four, but the first step seemed so harmless, and so easy to rationalize -- I only need this today; This is a temporary "pick me up"; "I'll stop tomorrow".

Uh huh.  Sure you will.

Six months, a year, two, five down the road and now morning coffee is no longer caffeine, it's a full-on line of coke on the nightstand before you get out of bed.  And then one day, as you're walking into your office, the inevitable tightness in the chest comes on -- The Big One.

We have spent 30 years deluding ourselves folks, and we must stop.  I have no idea exactly how far we can go with our economic heart before it explodes, only that if we continue down the road we are on it will occur with certainty.  Obama's re-election in the face of disgustingly-deteriorating economic fundamentals is not so much about him as it is about the vapid nature of the political challengers, none of whom had the balls to present what Ross Perot did back during his Presidential run -- charts, facts and figures, showing the course of action we were engaged in.

Why not?

That's simple: When you're invested in a bogus, fraudulent but profitable enterprise, would you call the curtain down on your own power and manipulation? 

Of course not.

Wake up America, and today when you do, choose to tough it out without "a quick snort" to start your day.  Tell those who wish to fill your little vial that you threw away the spoon, and while you know damn well you'll be using toothpicks to keep your eyelids open for a while, you'll live through today, and tomorrow you're going to get off your ass and force yourself to run a half-mile after work, starting the process of rebuilding that which we've destroyed -- and accepting the inevitable pain that must be endured to do so.

Either that or start walking now, hoping to achieve minimum safe distance, and whatever you do, don't look at the flash. 

It may be pretty but it's not worth the price of your eyesight.

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User Info More Illustration Of America and The Media in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1566
Incept: 2009-03-09
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Let the sequestration kick in, and let the tax rates revert to the Clinton-era ones. Then reduce deductions and eliminate ALL tax credits (bribes).

Reason: clarification
Bagbalm
Posts: 4263
Incept: 2009-03-19
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Just North of Detroit
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So it is sufficient to polish the turd ON THE SIDE THAT CAN BE SEEN.
Killben
Posts: 207
Incept: 2009-12-07

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"Wake up America"

Karl,

Given that America has elected Obama (not that Romney would have been any better!) don't you think it is bit far-fetched to expect America to wake up.

Unless you get a President, Congress and Regulators who want to do the right thing -- which would be to allow the banks to blow up -- America will not wake up.

Will it happen? It is anybody's guess!
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1566
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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The best thing that could happen is gridlock. Total agree-on-nothing gridlock. The Republicans should say "no" to extending ANY tax cuts for anyone(including the payroll tax "holiday"), and Obama should say "no" to nixing the sequestration they'd all agreed to just 15 months ago. The worst thing happening now is all of this BS talk about "coming together". **** coming together. The American electorate just voted for divided government. On purpose. Now do the job you were sent to Washington to do: say "no" to everything. That's not failure. That's success.

Reason: spelling
Killben
Posts: 207
Incept: 2009-12-07

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As long as people like G. Allen Andreas III are rare and are not among the Congress and Regulators, America will be in slumber! Now we produce a******* like Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner only.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-08....

Imajester
Posts: 238
Incept: 2007-08-23
Silver
Dallas, TX
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"I would love to see GDP denominated in something that is utterly invariant within our rational governmental lifetime; say, square meters of solar energy flux at the equator."

Or how about something fundamental like an eV.

Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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That works too.

Point being that those who try to do it in "ounces of gold" and similar are scams as well, as while you can't "print" it you most-certainly can have man-caused changes in the available float. Ditto for things like bushels of wheat; better than dollars, but not what you want.

You need an invariant measuring stick; eV is ok, insolation over a given unit of area is ok, etc -- something you can't tamper with.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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+1 to Bagbalm, that is a good one. Polish the side that can be seen, I have to remember that one.

Quote:
Big, immediate cuts aren’t always the best way to reduce deficits.

Correct. The best way is to never have let it happen in the first place. The second best is to get yourself under control before the problem gets very big. There are several more options. The last and worst option is to wait until you have no other choices and then you must implement "Big, immediate cuts" it seems we have chosen that option. So, right now that is the best way to reduce the deficit unless you want to just default and start over.

Quote:
And central bankers should be ready to try to offset the economic impact of any fiscal contraction.

I'm not a Ph.D. in economics so someone please tell me how you can do that. Even a tiny bit...

Now for other news, Mish has a post up on how Japan's economy shrank at an annualized rate of 3.5% last quarter. Sooner or later a leg is going to break on this global scheme we call finance/economy.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Duc888
Posts: 7368
Incept: 2008-11-06
Gold
CT, the UNconstitution State
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Re: polishing turds.....HAHAHAHAHAHA I love it Karl.

From my web site....

" I can't wave a magic wand and transform your piece of **** into something worthwhile. I can however.....lighten your wallet and give you a shiny piece of **** in return."

Unit of measurement : One hour of labor. It is the only fair trade on this planet. Anything else is bull****.

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...burp

Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Duc, no, that's no good either as productivity expands over time.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Duc888
Posts: 7368
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Gold
CT, the UNconstitution State
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Hmmmm, my thought was 1 hour of a $300 an hour lawyers services was in fact equal to one hour of breaking your back in 105 degree heat picking rice in Thailand.

Seems we're all on this planet for a finite amount of time. Some would argue about the school needed to pas the BAR's...etc... and the money involved, where -as I say "go pick some rice"...

I admit, maybe I'm wrong.

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...burp
Genesis
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You're looking for the same sort of cheat the monetarists use; this confounds the alleged reported amount (intentionally so) and is thus wrong.

You can compute those ratios later but they're not "GDP"; output must be denominated in something invariant or you're actually reporting not a unit of output at all but a ratio.

That's clever but it's still wrong.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Stof
Posts: 21
Incept: 2011-10-17
Silver
Ohio
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I don't get how the eV thing works. How would you measure products and services produced in an economy in electron volts?
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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That is funny Duc. Anyone with a brain knows that lawyer fees are deductions from GDP. Kind of like much of health care is a deduction. These are extractions. Anyone can't figure out they are extractions is just flat stupid. It would be like saying gas, oil maintenance and licensing fees are assets to owning a car.

What kills me is the Japan comparison. Japan is so debt bound now it will never recover. What did they do? Protected the banks and deficit spent at about 10% of GDP. Sound familiar? You couldn't any more watch someone drown themselves in the toilet then go stick your head in a deep one any better, could you?

Where Karl started out, with El-Erian lying is right on the subject. If he isn't lying, he is totally miseducated and what he does for a living is totally disconnected from economics and better determined by merely the flow of funds. The real truth is that the status quo is what puts money in their pockets and we won't get anything that takes the money out of the political classes pockets. I venture 30% of the US budget is THEFT

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Twainfan
Posts: 148
Incept: 2010-12-01

Minnesota
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Thank god for some sanity. There are fewer and fewer places left online to find it. Of the places/blogs I visit, it's turned into either "republicans blaming each other" or "freegold/bitcoin is the way to go" ... the internet has gone to hell in a handbasket since the election lol.

Thanks for all your hard work Karl (Leverage was a fantastic read). It's nice to find a place where I can understand what is being said and I don't see all the idiocy other places have. I don't comment too often because I'm not an economist or a trader ... just an average guy trying to stay ahead of the idiots.
Jal
Posts: 513
Incept: 2009-03-25

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Right now, the best available course of action for the majority of the USA people would be for the gov. to do nothing.

That's not going to happen.


The super committees, (rich people), spent Billions of dollars on the election so that they would be sitting at the table to make sure that any future legislation would not be harmful to their interest.

If the gov. lowers spending and gives less to the spenders, (poor), then there will be less profits from that source of income.

Therefore, The rich will have to raise prices to maintain profit margin for their "New yatch fund".

If the gov. tries to reduce loopholes in the tax code then there will be less profits from that source of income.

Therefore, The rich will have to raise prices to maintain their "New yatch fund".

If the gov. increases taxes on the rich then they will raise prices to maintain their "New yatch fund".

See... its nice to be rich ... you get to write the new legislation and can keep your "New yatch fund" growing.

YAGOTOHAVEGROWTH
R2judge
Posts: 578
Incept: 2008-04-13
Green
Burbank CA
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“This would be self-inflicted, disorderly contraction that would unambiguously push our country into recession,”

Did he complain about the self-inflicted disorderly expansion of deficits that preceded it?
Ducarius
Posts: 125
Incept: 2010-08-25
Green
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I tend to agree with the other Duc. It seems most rational to tie money to a unit of labor somehow. Maybe not an hour of physical labor, but something like the energy expended by lifting a 50 pound weight over a distance of 5 feet 20 times. That way money is tied to some fundamental unit of unaided human exertion. When a banker is making 20 million 'dollabors' a year compared to a steel plant worker making 220k 'dollabors' a year you can begin to rationalize actual productivity and whether pays are warranted.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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I think it's time for you to write another ticker on how to clean your front loading washing machine. At least there was something actionable in there for me. I've tried to educate many on the dangers of our deficits, the fact that the ACA for it or against wasn't the problem - it was the cost of health care and it's escalation, etc. Nobody wants to understand the problems.

I'm about to the point of going back to the farm and raising chickens. Only do enough work that I won't be taxed. It might just be time to go Galt.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Duc888
Posts: 7368
Incept: 2008-11-06
Gold
CT, the UNconstitution State
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_banking

http://timebanks.org/

ok guys... tear it apart.

;)


or maybe this is my bad and this does not belong in this ticker, but over in "Political and economic discussions". If so, I'll delete it.

The other Duc...LOL
Quote:
I tend to agree with the other Duc. It seems most rational to tie money to a unit of labor somehow. Maybe not an hour of physical labor, but something like the energy expended by lifting a 50 pound weight over a distance of 5 feet 20 times. That way money is tied to some fundamental unit of unaided human exertion. When a banker is making 20 million 'dollabors' a year compared to a steel plant worker making 220k 'dollabors' a year you can begin to rationalize actual productivity and whether pays are warranted.


Hmmm, "calories burned"?

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...burp

Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Prices have absolutely nothing to do with real domestic product. Neither does government flusing banker created money down the toilet. What differentiates modern society from undeveloped nations is capital accumulation. Is a $5 widget made with less capital any more valuable than a widget made for $3 with capital investment? Does price stability (keeping prices from going down)acutally do anything other than keep credit from contracting?

This is probably one reason they had to get away from gold, as gold is a measure of labor. If gold was money, you could get more money by digging gold out of the ground, thus it has a price in real terms. A $1 bill has the same price as a $100 bill or close to it. Merely different numbers. Even gold works much on the same function as paper money when it comes to valuation at any given time, in that it is for satisfaction of contracts, payment of debt but that is beside the point. In a gold system, counting dollars would actually produce a 40% decline in GDP in the example of the widget going from $5 to $3 in cost.

In the expansion of money and debt, the effects are not immediate. Only the first people to get the money benefit. Higher prices are ahead. You can generally only make money on borrowed money to any great extent if you are the first in and you get out and liquidate debt before the market moves backwards. Not that you can't make money over time. You can as long as they can keep expanding debt. But, the bill comes due.

This is the flaw in economics and in the thinking of modern financial people and models. We have seen a long cycle in credit, supported by newer and newer conventions of money and debt. THEY ARE MODELING THE SYSTEM AS IF THE BILL NEVER COMES DUE This means they are contending the system needs to operate in fraud and conceal the fraud as long as possible, that the debts will never be paid. Only keep the system going long enough that those in control can loot all the property not theirs already.

Here is a video, Lauren Lyster with Reggie Middleton, talking about education. Reggie is kind of a black Karl, though not a exact model.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hjilejJ8....

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Ducarius
Posts: 125
Incept: 2010-08-25
Green
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Mortgagedude it is quite depressing isn't it. I watched the Stewart vs O'Reilly debate and Stewart didn't even get the difference between debt and deficit such that he firmly believed Clinton had paid down the national debt. A girl in one of my classes is taking accounting and economics and I asked her if her class had discussed debts and deficits. She said yes, but didn't know the difference between the two. I really do miss Ross Perot because this country needs someone to sit down and explain all this stuff in simple terms for the willfully ignornant masses.

Sometimes I wonder if the past few years of growing zombie obsession in pop culture is a collective prescience for the widespread cannibalism to come.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Ducarius, you should have asked her if she understood how the bank ledger works in creating money and how they accounted for compound interest that was never created?

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Duc, no no no no. And gold doesn't work either because it is a declining-balance game just like oil is.

That is, there is a finite supply but the "easy" (in extraction terms) gold has all (or close enough to "all") been found, just as has been oil.

You can't denominate something in a variant or all you're producing as an alleged value is a ratio, but you're representing that it is a level, which is an act of fraud.

Levels can be self-referential (e.g. "dollars of debt") but they cannot reference another unit (GDP in dollars) unless "dollars" is invariant. This is one of the first things you learn in algebra; to solve a system of equations you must isolate the terms, and once you do so for a system of equations you have a ratio. When plotted in two dimensions with no exponents in the terms you get a vector. The fraud is that what's represented in these so-called "prints" of GDP is a point, not a vector, and what's worse is that I'd argue that the system of equations inherently involves terms containing exponents so the plot is not that of a vector either; it is rather some sort of parabolic function as it frequently will reduce to a quadratic equation.

This all comes down to math folks, and not even particularly-difficult math.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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