Consumer Credit September: More Kids Over The Couch
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-11-07 15:23
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
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Consumer Credit September: More Kids Over The Couch
 

This is not a good report:

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 percent in the third quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 perent, while nonrevolving credit increased 6-1/2 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5 percent.

Yeah, well, you know how I look at this report -- I look at non-revolving ex-FedGov, as that excludes student loans.

So let's have a peek, shall we?

Hmmm....looks pretty flat on the revolving side (as expected) with a negative trend.  On the non-revolving side ex-government we're not going anywhere.  What's do levels look like?

Ah there it is smiley

Yes, revolving credit actually went down by $5.2 billion in September.  Non-revolving ex-federal government went up by $6.1 billion (did someone roll credit card debt to non-revolving?) but with student loans it increased a stunning $19.8 billion; approximately $13.7 billion was added to student loans in September alone.

If you're a student I hope you got a stick for your teeth to go along with the keys to your dorm room because you sure didn't get any Vasoline.

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Apotheoun
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Karl, how much of this is just non-serviced student loans compounding interest? or is that not a factor in the chart?

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Genesis
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It's total outstanding, so that does count.

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Randy123
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I think kids will start skipping college. Give it time.

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Apotheoun
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"It's total outstanding, so that does count."

I bet a whole lot of that is just compounded interest. The vast majority of people I know with student loans are using their three years and keep somehow resetting it.

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Mdm
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Politicians expect young people over-burdened with student loan debt to pay the tab for all these people 55 and older who allegedly won't see their Medicare benefits touched. What could go wrong?
Nda
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From our "people on the street" weekly colum on Sunday. Question asked was what advise they would give the future president:
Inline
Inline

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Mdporter
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Quote:
From our "people on the street" weekly colum on Sunday. Question asked was what advise they would give the future president:


forgiveness for some but not others. Since I am not in a special group that is going to get forgiveness for anything, I am going to go ahead and tell this adult child that she can eat her student loan paperwork and statements for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Then she can DIAF. **** her and her debtor friends.

I would not be surprised if loan forgiveness for all is on the agenda for the next four years. They'll guarantee votes for a lifetime.

Trades50
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Everyone wants something for free.

Some do get it for free.

October 09, 2011

Reporting from Sacramento — Gov. Jerry Brown on Saturday granted illegal immigrants access to state financial aid at public universities and community colleges, putting California once again in the center of the nation's immigration debate.

But he vetoed a measure that would have allowed state universities to consider applicants' race, gender and income to ensure diversity in their student populations.

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Crzymorse
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I wouldn't mind starting a new politic party because I am done supporting either party. I'm sure we have enough people on the ticker forum to get something started. We sure as hell could come up with something a little more compelling then the BS spouted by the two parties.

Smacktle
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Time to run up the CCs FREE **** FOR EVERYONE!

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Azusgm
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One of the "people on the street" Nda showed above. Indeed, she is the one who went to medical school and could not find a job after graduation. Well...

Oh, and check the graphic to the side. A bit Rorschach-esque, no? (Did I work in labor and delivery too long?)

http://www.sensoriellespa.com/about/hopi....
Duc888
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Anecdotal: A business associate of mine who also started his business in 1988 as I did.....is getting a bucket load of **** from his wife because he's working mega hours to pay for his two kids college education. His reasoning is he doesn't want to saddle his two kids with 80K of debt each. Amazingly enough he's doing this (likely taking years off of his life span) and I commend him.

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...burp
Jinxx0r
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So why not just run up the student debt. If they're going to give you free money to go to school, why not just take it. Yeah, you can't discharge it, but so what. Can you squeeze blood from a turnip? You can't take the knowledge gained back. If it does implode, you still have the knowledge (well, hopefully). It's just like the people who have stayed in their houses without being foreclosed on. Why not just run up uncle sugars credit card. It can't ruin you... you can't take what I don't have. Are they going to garnish the wages of the job I don't have?

If worse comes to worse, move out of the country and give uncle sugar the finger. If I have a marketable skill that another country can use, and you have the bill, then...

I know it's not quite that easy, but I know someone who has done this (he's a doctor).

*shrugs*
Mortgageguymn
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A kid in my daughter's high school tweeted out last night, "I CAN GO TO COLLEGE NOW!"

I just read those "person on the street" quotes (above).

Wow - Hopi Wilder, from Chico - acupuncturist. That's what we need, federally-funded "medical" school for acupuncturists. Let's not forget about aroma therapists - to say nothing of "Thai massage with happy ending" therapists.

Reason: thought of more to say
Mannfm11
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I love this ****. These idiots don't realize they are going to turn the USA into Argentina. In fact, Argentina might be an upgrade once the credit runs out.

I recall leasing a house to a couple. I could still get a report showing all their debt then without hassel and she had about $100K in student loan debt. I think she could get a $25,000 a year job.

The problem with college is it doesn't have to be a full time job. Most students have a college near them so they can live at home and work. It gets kind of tough once you get a full load, but 30 hours a week will generally cover what you need to do to pass 15 hours, as long as you can have your classes at times that don't require a double trip to school each day. There is nothing to prevent a student from working 20 hours a week other than not managing their time. I have been there and done that. None of the kids in my family received much money from home and none of us had any debt when we got out.

The other problem is the basic costs of going to college have gone up about 10 times in the 35 years since I exited the system. I realize it was too cheap when I went, but $600 to sit in a class room for 45 hours is a little out of the question for most courses. I recall having some introductory classes that had 200 students in the room and I doubt that has changed. Do the math, $120,000 for an instructor and use of a room for 45 hours. If you figured the instructor and his assistants were worth $10K a month, that is about what the labor behind such a class should be We are talking maybe 120 hours of time involved. In any case, that class should cost half what they are charging at most

Take an English class, which is part of the required nonsense? That instructor had maybe 30 students and he might teach 4 classes if he is really working. 360 times 200 is $72,000 and you figure double that for an annual cost. That guy probably should make $75,000 a year plus benefits max, maybe $100K. There is still $44K left over to cover the cost of the class room and the administration. Most of these profs aren't making big time money in undergrad work and if they are overburdened, they have a Grad Asst that works for not much more than minimum. There is a hole in the scholastic bucket that is falling into someone elses pocket. This is true across the board in education.

Rothbard wrote a book about education. Those 2 interviews of the FSA people posted above are with people that should have never stepped foot in a university. It is likely they impeded their more intelligent classmates while going to public schools. It isn't that the rich get better educations, but the rich go to school with the rich in general and it is a different world. You get the government out of education, especially the free money and the value of education would skyrocket. We aren't going to the Ivy league and should quit looking to that group for solutions to our problems. Who paid for Obama? The CIA?

The US government does nothing but create growth industries based on waste and graft. The most ****ed up industries in the US are healthcare, education and to some extent the defense industry. These are hands down the most screwed up industries based on cost and effectiveness. They are also the most ****ed with by the government and the biggest consumers of tax revenue. Why do we keep allowing government to fix what they keep ****ing up more? Is it because idiots like those on the street have a vote? Where is the Constitution? It was supposed to protect us from government stealing our property..

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Jal
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Immediate problem.

Can't get a job.
Can't pay for food.

Immediate solution.

Go to school.
Get a student loan.
Get a usefull skill.

Since the system is collapsing the loan will not be a future problem.

Fraudster
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The economy cannot grow unless credit is growing (the nature of our monetary system). So basically almost all of the "growth" now is coming on the backs of students, who, will not be able to buy a home or a nice car, and will not be able to make consumptive purchases due to debt service. Don't you just love it? So if we are taking away GDP from tomorrow, by accelerating it to today, how large will GDP be 5, 10 or 15 years from now? Oh, oh.

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Mannfm11
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The economy can grow. The dollar figures can't grow. Question is, who is going to take the loss of what can't be paid back? Consumer credit is spending next years money this year. If someone spends $300 a month more than they make for a year, to pay it off, they have to spend $600 a month less the next year, plus interest. Or, they have to make $600 a month more plus interest to maintain.

The problem in the US is the government is pushing a bubble through education and medicine. The money flows through the economy, but someone pays. This is what the Keynesians and MMT people don't seem to let on, that someone pays. Japan is ****ed up because someone pays and that someone can't spend in the regular economy for what they want. Money merely changes accounts. Or goes into the black hole.

All of this is done in the name of price stability. Go to mises.org and download Rothbard's America's Great Depression and read what price stability means. They ****ed up the world economy with the pursuit of price stability. Price stability is what is pumping up the earnings of companies and widening the divide between the 1% and the rest of Americans. They keep the productivity gains through policies meant to keep prices from dropping. The only reason to keep prices from dropping is to protect the banks collateral gained through excessive lending.

So, what is the American dream now? Loading up on enough education debt to take the first 3 years paychecks, including the taxes? Even at a mild 6%, the interest is going to be close to 20% of gross and much more of net. The medical industry is the new estate tax for most middle class Americans. I have read they do mass heart surgeries in India for around $2000 each. You can't buy the drugs in a US hospital for such an operation for $2000. I bet these doctors didn't train in the local butcher shoppe either. Here they still use high cost poison to treat cancer. The billions and billions of dollars to cure cancer have bought us very little, maybe because it isn't profitable to cure cancer, nor would it be condusive for government control either. If there has ever been a cure, the government has sent in its goons to shut it down. Maybe they merely need an effective way to kill the elderly and keep the money flowing?


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Mortgageguymn
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"Question is, who is going to take the loss of what can't be paid back?"

When it comes to student loans, those students who enter the private sector will simply go into perpetual debt bondage. Those who go to work as a government employee (teacher, cop, firefighter, DMV clerk, social worker) will have their student loans forgiven.

If everyone would just work for the government, everything would be just fine.
Raftermanfmj
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Quote:
Anecdotal: A business associate of mine who also started his business in 1988 as I did.....is getting a bucket load of **** from his wife because he's working mega hours to pay for his two kids college education. His reasoning is he doesn't want to saddle his two kids with 80K of debt each. Amazingly enough he's doing this (likely taking years off of his life span) and I commend him.


Why? Why do you commend him? Because he's ignoring his wife's ****, or because he's continuing the ponzi?

It amuses me no end that those who work like slaves, and are taxed like slaves, cannot see their bullheaded actions further continue this, and further enslave them and their children. But, hey, where's my popcorn?

Quote:
I would not be surprised if loan forgiveness for all is on the agenda for the next four years. They'll guarantee votes for a lifetime.


For all? Nope. Maybe for some...er, chosen classes. But free most from the shackles of the Banksters? Nope. Free them from further manipulation? (Join the PieceCorpse and we'll forgive 8% of you student depth!) Oh, Hell no!

Quote:
The problem with college is it doesn't have to be a full time job. Most students have a college near them so they can live at home and work.


Plan on wrapping up my industrial odyssey in 3 years...was talking to my vet about veterinary school...turns out such schools are few and far between. Oh well.

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Duc888
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Quote:
Why? Why do you commend him? Because he's ignoring his wife's ****, or because he's continuing the ponzi?

It amuses me no end that those who work like slaves, and are taxed like slaves, cannot see their bullheaded actions further continue this, and further enslave them and their children. But, hey, where's my popcorn?


I'm not following your "logic" here. By NOT letting his kids (one going to college for veterinary study I might add) take on student debt he is enslaving them?

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...burp
Azusgm
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Quote:
Why? Why do you commend him?


Why wouldn't anyone? Being a productive person who puts out the extra effort to provide for his family and launch his kids without debt sounds worthy of respect.

Wearedoomed
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Duc888 wrote..
By NOT letting his kids (one going to college for veterinary study I might add) take on student debt he is enslaving them?
Perhaps not, but he's enslaving himself. Dad could have told his kids to pay their own way; that way, Dad doesn't die early, and the kids get a valuable life lesson. Besides, the reason that college is so ****ing expensive is that credit is so ****ing cheap. The people who can actually pay without going into debt are, generally, suckers... unfortunately. Perhaps Dad is hoping for a return on his investment, but that's all it is - hope - even if one of his kids is going for an actual, useful skill.

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Mo
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I encouraged a 20 year old yesterday to go out and 'do whatever it takes' (take a lot of loans) to go back to school. She was an Obama voter.

I'll continue to do that for the next 4 years whenever the opportunity arises.


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