Richmond Fed - Oops
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-10-23 11:04
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Richmond Fed - Oops
 

Now this is just plain bad.

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region pulled back in October after improving somewhat last month, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. The seasonally adjusted index of overall activity was pushed lower as all broad indicators of activity—shipments, new orders and employment—were in negative territory. Other indicators also suggested additional softness. Capacity utilization turned negative, while backlogs remained negative but improved from its September reading. Moreover, the gauge for delivery times changed little, while raw materials inventories grew at a slightly quicker pace, and growth in finished goods edged lower.

Yuck.

The table is just plain ugly.  I'm sure someone will try to put lipstick on this pig, but it's definitely a pig; Shipments, new orders, capacity utilization, and vendor leadtime all went the wrong way and employees did not improve (and are still being cut.)  Worse, prices paid and received both increased and widened, which is the worst possible move you can get.

Recession. 

It's baked in the cake and the oven timer is about to ring.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Richmond Fed - Oops in forum [Market-Ticker]
Hilandstrata
Posts: 174
Incept: 2008-10-19
Green
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When did we ever leave(the great recession)?
Yaldor
Posts: 2687
Incept: 2008-05-17

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" prices paid and received both increased and widened, which is the worst possible move you can get."

Can you xplain ? Thanks.

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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Genesis
Posts: 130663
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Prices paid and received both went up (bad for consumers) and the spread between the two widened (so you got margin compression on top of higher prices.)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Yaldor
Posts: 2687
Incept: 2008-05-17

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Tnx ! clear now.

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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
J0nx
Posts: 3066
Incept: 2008-08-12
Green
The trashcan of the nation
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Replace REC with DEPR and yeah maybe.

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The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it.
Dashingdwl
Posts: 9752
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Gold
los angeles
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We never left the recession. Just a debt-fueled sugar high dead-cat bounce.

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Gold
Land of Tax and Spend
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Quote:
Replace REC with DEPR and yeah maybe.


Call it what it is.

In Europe with 25% or greater their calling it a recession. Looks more like a depression.

Just like calling a 2nd mortgage a home equity loan. On the titles I notice 2nd mortgage being stamped on it.

Somehow it makes people feel better.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Steelhead23
Posts: 2037
Incept: 2008-09-09
Green
Portland OR
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combining this with Mr. Casey's outlook - and of course, Tickers galore - leads me to one simple conclusion - Casey Jones (Ben Bernanke) probably could not stop this train if he chose to, but instead he continues to throw dollars into the furnace, believing, against all the laws of physics (and mathematics) that if he just goes fast enough, this train would fly. The crash will be epic.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated

Lucky1
Posts: 2019
Incept: 2009-08-05
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Pittsburgh
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Ding! Finally - numbers that make some sense based upon what I'm seeing in the manufacturing realm.

Btw - our raw material from China just went up 3.8% on the most recent new delivery of material we started using at the end of September. We passed along a price increase of about 2% to some customers - not the large customers with blanket orders; those stayed the same through the end of 2012. We'll have to work on those for next year. In the meantime, we'll eat the difference for the majority of product shipped.

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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
Trades50
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Evans is a big advocate that more QE is better. More like Krugman. LOL, Evan's comment: "benign outlook for inflation"

How long can the Fed members play, "See no evil"?

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publi....

Quote:


For more than two years, I have vigorously supported strongly accommodative monetary policy measures as the appropriate response to the unacceptable state of the U.S. labor market and benign outlook for inflation. I believe the combination of new asset purchases and enhanced forward guidance about future policy should provide an important added stimulus to economic activity and hiring. However, as I’ll explain later, I think there are additional steps the Fed can take to further strengthen its positive effects on the economy.



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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson

Mannfm11
Posts: 3532
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DFW, Tx
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You have done a good job of calling this mess KD. What I love about these surveys is the future expectations. The future expectations have led these guys into the outhouse.

Maybe Bennie will figure out that the banks can't earn any money on the **** he is pumping out there. Bank cash is a balance sheet entry. It is only cash when it is in our wallets or hoards or when it is moving between banks. It is always somewhere, earning zero, save for the fact the Fed earns money on what it buys and it is drawn right out of the economy and passed on to the government as tax revenue. What a deal, $40 billion a month yielding over 3% in return for nothing. Anyone who could understand this would realize it is a deal made between a motherf**ker and an idiot.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Nomennescio
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Incept: 2012-01-16

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But other than that it looks like a good print. /sarc
Captainkidd
Posts: 594
Incept: 2010-05-25
Silver
Pasadena, Texas
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Quote:
But other than that it looks like a good print. /sarc


But, other than that one little thing, did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Marcustullius
Posts: 200
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Genesis wrote..
It's baked in the cake and the oven timer is about to ring.

Are there wisps of SMOKE coming out of that oven??

Tully

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"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." (Samuel Adams)
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Shhhhh... that's not a fire, it's Obama!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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