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| A Reprise of November 6th, 2010 in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Killben
Posts: 205
Incept: 2009-12-07
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"when we'll get it out of the citizens of this nation."
If America follows Japan .. probably 20 years hence. If America follows America (of Old when they were real Capitalist!).. then hopefully in a year or two.
Reason: typo
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Fraudster
Posts: 4171
Incept: 2011-05-10
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I am always puzzled by the idea that people think this can go on for twenty, even ten, years. On what mathematical basis?
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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Quote: people think this can go on for twenty, even ten, years. Especially when you attempt to compare Japan with the US. Karl was right on when he pointed to Japan as having a higher savings rate as well as funding it with internal savings. Many think it's the mutual assured destruction that keeps the game going.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Fraudster
Posts: 4171
Incept: 2011-05-10
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I chalk it up to normalcy bias, and the conscious or subconscious desire to keep the system (that still does largely benefit Americans) going. Too bad it is entirely unsustainable and at the end of its shelf-life.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Killben
Posts: 205
Incept: 2009-12-07
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@Fraudster,
Not on mathematical basis but on intervention basis. Central Banks across the world by intervening have been able to ensure that this crap (of intervention on some basis or other with no accountability) can continue for 4 years (and counting) so we can safely assume that intervention will be the basis to ensure that this crap can continue ALAP. Unless People rise up and revolt these guys will keep at it all in the guise of helping common man.
has anyone in any press conference asked him when he expects this or that to happen? what is his Plan B if Plan A fails? Now assume employment is at 8% even in 2020, does Fed keep doing QEn in 2020 also?
Till people rise and stop interventionist policies this will continue.
Reason: typo
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Fraudster
Posts: 4171
Incept: 2011-05-10
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@Killben, perhaps but to do that you have to show me how we continue to pump more debt/credit into the system for 10 years. How do we increase debt with a moribound private economy? Is it the Government that will borrow all of the necessary debt for the next 10-20 years? People throw that idea out, but I really wonder if they have thought it through. I think the odds are good that the next blow up happens at, or at the end of, the next presidential term.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Bertdilbert
Posts: 2653
Incept: 2008-12-22
CA
Online
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Oh Obama Care will save us, Mish is seeing evidence that employers are moving to part time workers to avoid the Obama Care liability of full time employment.
A tapped out consumer is not going to propel the economy forward, which was the original issue when we hit the wall. Part time workers with no wage pressures is not going to pull us out of anything. Obama cut the payroll tax to put more money in the hands of the workers but that seems to have worn off and was offset due to cost of living increases.
So where to now? I got it. a thorium powered printing press for Bernanke for Christmas. Biggest growth industry for 2013? Helicopter manufacturing.
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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!
Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
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Aztrader
Posts: 6648
Incept: 2007-09-10
Scottsdale, AZ
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The feds moves are and have been to enrich the banks. All this QE BS is an excuse to buy toxic crap from the banks and stick on the Feds balance sheet as "other"..........
This is generational theft and moves money from the savers the banks. The fraud is so obvious that it stinks. We watch Congress kiss Bernankes' butt everytime he shows up and lies. There is no accountability and the people suffer. When does the shooting start?
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Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
State of Disbelief
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Quote:How do we increase debt with a moribound private economy? Well, it's happening...only in the worst possible way, on the backs of the most vulnerable...on students and coming generations of taxpayers. As long as Bernanke keeps stuffing cash at the banks to paper over their REO cash flow issues, there will be no change. As long as Bernane keeps buying Ts, the government can keep spending us and future taxpayers into oblivion. As long as the government gives student loans to any warm body, it continues. It's only when QE stops that we fall into the abyss. So, what will make QE stop ? I'm betting on the prices of oil and food and healthcare/insurance to force the recognition, but that may take a few more years.
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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
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Drkshapiro
Posts: 627
Incept: 2012-09-12
Southern CA
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Bertdilbert says:
Mish is seeing evidence that employers are moving to part time workers to avoid the Obama Care liability of full time employment.
This started last year with some of the big pharmacy chains for pharmacists. Part time if you want a job. Most did not expect that when they went 100k or so in hock to get the degree.
KD put that quote in about idiots are those that do the same thing over and over and expect something different to happen. Solution: You find experts in an area and have them run that area, like in a private company. That's it. You need EXPERTS in an area, not people who majored in something to get a job in government. And the areas that don't need managing you shut down, like the Fed.
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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
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Oldpool
Posts: 873
Incept: 2010-06-23
LI NY
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Its Criminal IMO
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Liberty, Comrade!
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Drkshapiro
Posts: 627
Incept: 2012-09-12
Southern CA
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KD, I just went to a presentation on how health care is using root cause (retrospective) and FMEA (prospective) analyses to improve safety. They've been growing slowly since the IOM report To Err is Human in 2000. When I started working in a hospital errors happened, you reported them sometimes and that was usually that. Now, they try in most places to set up the system so that errors are less likely to occur. At least at the decent teaching hospitals.
You look back, identify the cause of the problem, and construct a system where the occurrence cannot, or is less likely, to recur. These concepts were taken from industry-that is, they were not developed in health care. How much of this is done in economics, or policy offices? That's my point. You make a mistake and you get promoted, perfect example, Larry Summers. He gets the academy award for that.
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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
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Genesis
Posts: 130664
Incept: 2007-06-26
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The problem is that it's only a mistake the FIRST time you leave a sponge in a patient. The second time you're either incompetent or you did it on purpose.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Drkshapiro
Posts: 627
Incept: 2012-09-12
Southern CA
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I used to attend some of the amputations/hip/knee replacements just for fun at the hospital. Do you know how many sponges there are? It is easy to leave one in, really. Now, you count all at the beginning and all at the end, and you document the count. Sponges don't get left in. The idea is to set up the system so it blocks the errors.
All I was trying to say was: we have accountability in well-run organizations, but there's no accountability in government. You can make the same mistakes repeatedly and just keep on going. That's strange.
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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
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Drkshapiro
Posts: 627
Incept: 2012-09-12
Southern CA
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A little like your graphic KD. Ha ha! You need some tests.
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Honesty may be the best policy, but it’s important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy. --G Carlin
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Jpg
Posts: 329
Incept: 2009-03-23
MI
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Quote:The world’s biggest bond traders say the Federal Reserve will decide before year-end to buy Treasuries ... Buy them from who? Current holders, or Primary Dealers? If the former, are there really that many still out there? If the latter, doesn't that only last until we hit the Nat. Debt Ceiling and the Treasury can't sell any more? |
Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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I come across some spare money Karl, I would gladly make a donation to put that short vid on TV. When this is all done, the favorite Halloween mask is going to be Bernanke with fire from his mouth and horns. The new devil. If Bernanke is wrong, his religion is false. His books go in the garbage along with those of the other rubber stamps on the FOMC. History doesn't always repeat itself, but it damn sure rhymes. This book by Andrew Dickson White, written over 100 years ago tells the story of one of the great money printing experiments. Documented is the progression of the addiction. All in 70 pages or so. http://mises.org/Literature/Author/745/A....
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Harrisonact
Posts: 1753
Incept: 2010-10-04
canada
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Quote:If Bernanke is wrong, his religion is false. His books go in the garbage along with those of the other rubber stamps on the FOMC. But there's no mechanism to remove him and his fraudulent conies after he's proven wrong. There isn't a single decent working guillotine in America AFAIK. So how long can this go on? Almost forever from an inside the USA perspective. Keep the Free **** flowing and internal dissent low and it's "To infinity and beyond!" with buying T's, mark to fantasy, QE and all the other financial monkey business. Where you have real problems is the third world where a doubling of food prices = a doubling or mortality. Oops. Someone(s) in a third world country with real money might get tired of watching infants and kids die before their eyes and decide America should learn some humility. All of us here know of a dozen ways or more to perform actual terrorism and kills hundreds if not thousands with very little trouble. If enough of that happens, real terrorism killings thousands, America will go into lock-down mode (what, you think THIS is a lock-down? You ain't seen nothing, yet. Think anal probes to ride a bus) and continue the financial hokey-pokey until everyone world wide wants a piece of her , hello WWIII, or it's a quick escalation then flash, bang, a couple nukes to test the waters and either sanity prevails or we go all out full retard and put on the best lightshow ever seen by man. All because one arrogant ********** and his masters refuse to see the obvious, losers lose and get vaporized the and winners get to walk away with the spoils. How hard is that to comprehend? I learned that in kindergarten. ****. We're doomed.
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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
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Vitchilo
Posts: 4571
Incept: 2011-04-27
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The big problem is that there's NO WAY Bernanke will be able to unwind all this garbage without crashing everything.
Karl, if you would take over the FED let's say in 2-3 years when the FED balance sheet is $5 trillion, how would you unwind it without doing damage? Is it even possible?
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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
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Mikek31
Posts: 4346
Incept: 2009-05-04
Chicago
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Oh gosh, I still hear this "we have twenty more years of this, like Japan." What a load of bull. Don't be fooled just because we've been able to drag this out for four years; barely able, I might add. We certainly don't have twenty. Not to mention, those who argue we go the "Japan route" are essentially arguing that Japan will have managed to kick the can for some forty years! Good luck with that prognostication.
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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
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