The Mouth-Breathing On Health Care Continues
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-10-17 10:20
by Karl Denninger
in Health Reform
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The Mouth-Breathing On Health Care Continues
 

Why do we keep doing this again?

Early in 2010, as the climactic votes neared, a parade of the legislation's defenders—from the House, Senate and Obama administration—appeared across the media. All had the same message: pre-existing conditions. They named the names of families "victimized" by companies that had refused to sell them insurance, had canceled their coverage or had refused to pay their medical bills.

Wait a second.

If you have a "pre-existing" condition then you're not buying insurance.

Remember what insurance actually is: A small payment made to someone in order to obtain pooled risk against an unlikely but catastrophic event that one either cannot or chooses not to reserve against on one's own.

By its very nature insurance is a negative-sum game.  That is, if you take all the bad outcomes that happen across the insured population and sum their costs, the cost of the insurance purchased by that population must exceed the sum of the costs.  It cannot be otherwise or the insurance company will cease to exist as it will make continual losses and eventually run out of capital.

As such if the catastrophic event already happened you're not negotiating for "insurance"; you are now trying to lay off the cost of mitigating the damage that has already occurred on someone else ex-post-facto.

The common word for that attempted act is theft.

Consider the rest of your life.  What would you say to someone who demanded to be able to buy fire insurance on his house while the house was on fire?  Or someone who demanded the ability to buy auto insurance covering both liability and property damage after he got into a wreck?

You'd laugh at either of those attempts, and with good cause.

So why don't you laugh at someone who argues that after contracting cancer or HIV someone should be able to buy health insurance to cover the cost of that cancer treatment or HIV?

It's the same issue, yet one is quite-properly regarded as nothing other than an attempt to reach into other people's pockets and pay for your consensual decision to either live in a house without insurance or drive a car without having coverage while the other is demanded as a civil right!

We have no honest debate on this issue in America.  The Libertarian Party, in particular Gary Johnson, utterly squandered the opportunity to become relevant not only personally but as a party this election cycle by refusing to take this issue on face-first.  Neither Obama or Romney have any interest in it either.

The reason is simple; if you face this issue head-on you need to do two things.

First, you must tell people that if they are intentionally irresponsible or make decisions that come with the potential for catastrophic loss, including their death, that they both have the right to do so and the responsibility to bear the consequences, exactly as is the case where one has no homeowners or automobile insurance.  In all three cases the decision is made and the choice taken, irrespective of the reason for the choice.  In some cases the choice is economic, in others it's simply a matter of allocation of one's available funds -- people in some cases would prefer to have an iPhone and the data plan associated with it rather than buy homeowner's insurance.

Second, you must deal with the myriad and ridiculous monopoly-style protections that are currently embedded in our health care system.  Some of these adjustments would come automatically with the cessation of the ability to force cost-shifting on other people.  But others are ensconced in law rather than custom, and must be removed.  The most-destructive of these are laws that effectively force Americans to pay for the development of virtually every advanced drug and device used through the world at its reproduction cost, and come in the form of resale restrictions, cross-border pricing protection, abuse of the patent system and unconscionable acts by medical providers who take gross advantage of people who are "in extremis" and unable to effectively negotiate price.  These acts are illegal in virutally every other area of commerce and with good cause; a free market in medical care only exists where one can effectively negotiate for said care and its price and where parties are free to enter and exit providing medical goods and services as they wish.  None of this is true in the current system, and all of it is enforced at literal gunpoint through laws and regulations.

The latter is an extremely uncomfortable place for a politician, as he is sandwiched between the screaming Grannies believing they're being shoved under the bus (or worse) and the pharmaceutical and health industry, reaching all the way back to medical schools, who stoke the fear of those very same Grannies should any attempt be made to cut into their profit margins.  You have to be willing to gob-smack those people and put up facts and figures, such as the fact that if you took the 1963 cost of having a baby in the hospital and inflated it by the CPI to today's price it would cost under $1,000 for that procedure including four nights in the hospital for both mother and infant!

That's an 80-90% reduction in the price charged today.

And that, in turn, leads to some pretty-ugly conclusions.

The most-important of which is that were these changes to become law virtually all of what is currently complained about with "unaffordable" health care would disappear.  Even for catastrophic incidents such as cancer, where a $1 million bill is entirely possible, at 1/10th the cost the majority of people could find a way to pay for it.  For "more-routine" things that cost $100,000 a bill for $10,000 can be funded by most; they might have to take out a loan on their house or credit card, but it could be done.

Would there be those who can't cover it?  Yes.  But there were before we turned this into a debate about rights, and most of those people did get care.  It might not have been state-of-the-art, but charity goes a long way, especially when the price is 1/10th of today's numbers.  There were fraternal societies (such as Moose Lodges and similar), the original formation of which often occurred as a means to provide "group medical services" to the membership.  There were over 120,000 of these local affiliated lodges in the 1920s providing services to nine million members!

For those who say this is impossible I direct you to the Okahoma Surgery Center and their price list, which proves it's not.  Or, if you prefer, do some research on medical tourism in India and other places around the world.  The difference is competition and refusal to force entities to treat people who have no money.  The grift and scam embedded in the American medical system comes from those two primary factors, not, as is often claimed, "defensive medicine" or "tort abuse."

Now to be sure defensive medicine is an issue and we perform a lot of unnecessary MRIs for that purpose.  But the question isn't so much whether we should do those MRIs as it is why a mature technology should cost $2,000 a crack instead of $20.  That happens for one reason and one reason only -- there's no effective competition and everyone involved up and down the chain, from doctors to device manufacturers have bent both the ears and pens of legislators to insure that their gravy train of theft remains secure.

We will never solve the problems in our medical system's cost structure until we tell the truth on how we got here and call demands to purchase "insurance" after the fact what they are: an outright scam.

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User Info The Mouth-Breathing On Health Care Continues in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bagbalm
Posts: 4264
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
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Health insurance is a buyer's club really. If you don't belong you can't buy at a decent rate. You will belong or else...

Should have said what or else - Or else we have a license to bankrupt you.

Morla
Posts: 817
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
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"Why does Godzilla keep protecting us?" Oh wait, Tokyo has been destroyed. Hehe yes, if you buy insurance AFTER the fact it's not insurance it's just a joke. I started a joke..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upi14G_Ky....

And every night, I shut my eyes, cos I don't want to see the light! Shinin' so bright.. I dream about a cloudy sky, about a cloudy sky!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZKetHke....

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?

Crzymorse
Posts: 1195
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Don't forget about viagra getting close to 30 years of patent protection somehow.
Irishblues
Posts: 290
Incept: 2010-12-18
Gold
Wisconsin
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Quote:
By its very nature insurance is a negative-sum game. That is, if you take all the bad outcomes that happen across the insured population and sum their costs, the cost of the insurance purchased by that population must exceed the sum of the costs. It cannot be otherwise or the insurance company will cease to exist as it will make continual losses and eventually run out of capital.

That can't possibly be right. People I know who are gung-ho, pro-goverment run health care keep telling me insurers are supposed to drop premiums because they're making too much money and thus can afford to run a loss. Of course, these are the same people who think "$1000 of free health care" is really $1000 coming out of the insurer's pocket, and that there's no way it would end up being priced into the premium paid up-front.
Aztrader
Posts: 6650
Incept: 2007-09-10
Green
Scottsdale, AZ
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When I heard Omama claim that even with a prexisting condition, you can get affordable healthcare, I couldn't believe he didn't get called on it. His BS healthcare plan does mandate that insurance companies can't discriminate, but doesn't set the price that person pays in premiums. In addition, everyone of us that pay, are forced to pay more to cover this part of the bill.
We are totally screwed. The lies are getting bigger and bolder and the people dumber and dumber.

Ghopper
Posts: 2317
Incept: 2011-06-11

Staten Island, NY
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And remember, Romney says he will kill Obama-care (Ha!), but wants to get the coverage for pre-existing conditions part.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 634
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Viagra cost, for the benefit of the tickers:

The drug Cialis, which lasts about 48 hours (multi-use) costs about the same as Viagra (~$28/per tablet)) and if you get the 20 mg, you can cut it in half (use a tablet cutter, not a knife, to get even halves since the tablet is not scored to be cut) and then it will be about $14 per 48 hours. Most men can get by with the 10 mg dose. (There are certain conditions where this dose will be too high.) Some will need the 20 mg dose anyway--this is usually after using the 10 mg for awhile.

Viagra also can be cut: Most men use the 50 mg dose, and you can get the 100 mg and cut it in half. Viagra, like Levitra (there are three in this class) is a one-time use drug, unless you are virile enough to have sex twice within a few hours.

The drug used in Viagra is sildenafil, and it is out as a generic, although not in distribution yet in most places, in a low dose used for a different condition (pulmonary arterial hypertension). After the six month high generic rate, other manufacturers will jump in and then the cost will drop, depending on how much collusion there is between the generic manufacturers. It might be worth it to get this version, but most men will need three of them, so then again maybe the cost will not work out to be less.

You can also get the drug in other countries, but this is if you get it here, legally.

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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente
A1a2pch
Posts: 14
Incept: 2012-06-15

Cape Coral, FL
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Example: 50 year old woman with kidney stone that has been there forever and probably always will can't get affordable insurance because of this fact.
So she is fixated on Obamacare with the expectation of erasing the "pre-existing condition" from the premium calculation. I'm just looking forward to the voucher for the hobo care provision.

I have heard the stories of adverse selection [people only buying insucance when they NEED it because they can't be screened out now] and how it will bankrupt the system. There is a difference between refusing to offer coverage due to a pre-existing condition and an inability to use the condition in underwriting. I have not seen any details on limits for companies in underwriting, other than eliminating the maximum benefit.

Romney has said that poor people now can get hobocare at the emergency room - I have done this, and it doesn't help make someone more attractive as a prospective employee.

I wish someone asked the question at the town hall debate about true medical reform
Anti
Posts: 4302
Incept: 2007-10-09
Silver
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The reforms you suggest are deflationary. Just as there are knock-on effects of a balanced budget, there will be knock-on effects of the removal of these expenses and incomes.

I guess the deflation comes from debt default by health-care professionals and companies. The lost income to those workers should be balanced by the lost expenses to the public who will be able to reallocate their purchases.



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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 634
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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You could make a cheap generic pill that contains:
1. Metformin, used by most with diabetes, and sometimes pre-diabetes, to control blood sugar.
2. An ACE Inhibitor, a drug that protects the kidneys and controls blood pressure.
3. Possibly a generic statin, to lower cholesterol. You can make two versions, one with, one without.

Roll them into one, make it for pennies, and you treat most people just like that. Sell it non-Rx in the pharmacy or grocery store. Then you get rid of billions of dollars worth of amputations, heart attacks, strokes and dialysis. It will be a blockbuster.

Forgot to add, so I'm editing this in: This would work because you can buy your own test to check your blood sugar short-term and long-term (the A1C test) and you can buy a kit to check your own cholesterol, or you can pay to have both of these checked in many pharmacies for $25-$30 each. It should be less and would be if it was a free market and there is demand. You can sit at one of those machines at the pharmacies and check your blood pressure.

It's those THREE things that cause most of the problems:
1. The blood sugar, or glucose
2. The blood pressure
3. The cholesterol

Everyone should know what their numbers are and be able to get a cheap way to control them themselves (if they are not doing Karl's low-carb diet, or in some cases even if they are and still need some help). Then, if you don't take care of it and the ball is in your court you can deal with the consequences. This would cost less than most people's co-pays for medicines, or their insurance premium deduction.


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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente

Docj
Posts: 1000
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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A1a2pch wrote..
I have heard the stories of adverse selection [people only buying insucance when they NEED it because they can't be screened out now] and how it will bankrupt the system.


This is a feature, not a bug, of Obamacare. Bankrupt the "private" insurance systems and PRESTO! Uncle Sam becomes the sole issuer and the NHS comes to the colonies.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Outofmydepth
Posts: 8
Incept: 2010-03-13

United States
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Karl,

I'm curious why you never discuss Continuation of Coverage. Maybe you have, I've never noticed it.

For example, my wife has Multiple Sclerosis. We have never let her coverage lapse (group policies), so shopping for a new individual policy is not a case of "after the fact". No individual policy insurance carrier will touch her. That might be different now with Obamacare, but the last we looked into it, her only option to going off a group policy is a state program, after a costly period of time on COBRA. But I don't see how you can call this type of case a "scam". It's merely a long-term problem against which she has always been insured.

There are further complexities with treatment options. My wife has breifly been on some expensive pharmaceutical treatments, none of which really helped. She has been off treatment for a long time now, so the ongoing cost of her care is minimal, and FAR LESS than it could be if she chose to continue going after other treatments. That makes NO DIFFERENCE to insurance companies that sell individual plans -- they ASSUME that having this condition will automatically result in costly treatment till the end of her life. There is no plan where we have the option to waive those kinds of treatment to reduce the premiums. That's the REAL scam.
Lumpeninvestor
Posts: 2347
Incept: 2007-10-16
Gold
98072, USSA
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I recently found the actual bill for my birth in the crusty fileboxes at my parent's house. I think it was $266 (1967).

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Distributing insolvency only destroys the last remaining islands of solvency in a bankrupt world. - Charles Hugh Smith 8/23/2012
Drkshapiro
Posts: 634
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Outofmydepth, your wife might qualify to get the pricey injectables from the drug company. You can put the drug name in at www.rxassist.org and see if you meet the requirements. The companies get to write off these donated drugs, and so the taxpayers pay for it, but I recommend this to many people these days who otherwise could not get what they need. The requirements for many of the drugs are ambiguous.

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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente
Risingcream
Posts: 4407
Incept: 2007-09-07
Green
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The elite benefit from the survival of the unfit policy. It's like how girls hang out with uglier friends.

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Civilization...ancient and wicked. --Subotai

“The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success”
Aethor
Posts: 132
Incept: 2011-11-15
Green
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Outofmydepth wrote..
I'm curious why you never discuss Continuation of Coverage


While not a scam, for any insurance carrier other than the one that your wife had insurance when that condition started, it's a guaranteed losing proposition, not an insurance - it's as Karl said, trying to buy a car insurance for an already damaged car.

You can call it insurance as long as there is a chance of the event that you're insuring against not happening; this chance allows the price for everyone to be reduced, and if it were a certainty then everyone would have to pay the full price, which would make insurance pointless.

The difference between medical and car/property insurances is that people get into conditions that are not curable, and yet you can't write them off and buy a new person like you can for the car; thus, IMO, that case has to be foreseen and accounted for in the original insurance contract.

Now, the insurance that she had while she was healthy, that she had when that condition started, that should have included some provisions for that, so that they pay for the rest of her life; since at the time she was healthy it was a valid insurance contract, the insurance company gambled and lost, they should pay.

If there was no such provision... well, that's like having insurance but not being insured against one special case.

I have some such provisions in the life insurance I have through my job, where if certain events make me an invalid, that insurance company has to pay specific amounts... I can't remember the details off the top of my head.

Other insurance carriers are not guilty, and thus not responsible, for that condition, however sad it is; and the only way they could give her insurance is to take the hit themselves on their margin - but after enough such insured people with preexisting conditions, the insurance company would have, sooner or later, to increase premiums for everyone in order to stay solvent, otherwise they would be out of business (and everyone who paid for their insurance would be uninsured).

Bigcowboy
Posts: 555
Incept: 2010-03-12
Gold
Michigan
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Quote:

You could make a cheap generic pill that contains:
1. Metformin, used by most with diabetes, and sometimes pre-diabetes, to control blood sugar.
2. An ACE Inhibitor, a drug that protects the kidneys and controls blood pressure.
3. Possibly a generic statin, to lower cholesterol. You can make two versions, one with, one without.


Nice try, but ACE inhibitors are contradicted in pregnancy. You can buy 90 10mg pills of lisinophil for $25 (prescription, no insurance coverage). Lisinophil is an ACE inhibitor. I personally take this medicine and have had no problems with it.

-BigCowboy
Drkshapiro
Posts: 634
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Bigcowboy, yes, statins are also not used in pregnancy. There are OTC drugs that are not safe in pregnancy too--such as ibuprofen. That's okay, say so on the package. You can have one for men, one for women, pink and blue boxes.

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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente
Jduwaldt
Posts: 499
Incept: 2010-06-10

Orange County, CA
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Aztrader wrote..

We are totally screwed. The lies are getting bigger and bolder and the people dumber and dumber.
(My bold)
Kinda sounds like another bubble, doesn't it? I wonder what happens when that bubble pops? Oh wait... the US is probably what pops at that point...

Anti wrote..
The reforms you suggest are deflationary. Just as there are knock-on effects of a balanced budget, there will be knock-on effects of the removal of these expenses and incomes.
You're right Anti but don't we blow up if we continue on this path anyway? For example there ARE (were) knock-on effects for passing TARP but I (and fortunately my CongressCritter) was against it anyway. Either w/ or w/out TARP insolvent banks blow up: isn't it just a question of lots of pain "now" (2008) or even more pain later (today)?

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It's not an issue of "cooperation" vs "go it alone": it's a question of involuntary vs voluntary relationships.

Reason: reply to Anti's post and better grammer
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1566
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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Has anyone tried any of those suction pumps and do they actually work?
Alchemista2
Posts: 89
Incept: 2008-09-25

DC
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Coverage for a pre-existing condition is understandable, but insurances will deny you for other conditions outside of your pre-existing conditions. For example, long term disability will deny you all-out if you have any depression, even though you may need disability for getting in an accident or a completely different disease.
Vernonb
Posts: 401
Incept: 2009-06-03
Silver
State College, PA
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Karl,

Pre-existing conditions cover a wide range of issues- some more serious than others.

I find it unacceptable to allow a child that could be a contributing citizen to to live out its life in some impoverished hell as a second class citizen through no fault of their own when something could be actually done to correct the problem.

I see people destroying themselves everyday or others that take BS meds like some 75 yr old trying to stiffen his crank so he can pretend that age hasn't caught up with him and then you find out he's been molesting adolescents.

Something else that disturbs me are parents with known birth defects having kids only to see that poor child suffer the same infirmity. I saw a child the other day with a developmental disorder of her limbs. What then shock me was when I saw that the child's mother with the same disorder.

This reminds me of the two deaf parents that hoped that their child would be born deaf. I was totally shocked at the sheer selfishness of such a statement.

Get rid of the non-essential 'luxury crap' and there would be more available for real problems.

Everything has its limits.

Lumpeninvestor.... I got you beat -lol. I was born in at my grandmother's home. She was a midwife. They paid the attending physician $20.00 in 1962.

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"The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants, and it provides the further advantage of giving the servants of tyranny a good conscience.”
-Alber Camus (1913-1960)
Genesis
Posts: 130802
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
I find it unacceptable to allow a child that could be a contributing citizen to to live out its life in some impoverished hell as a second class citizen through no fault of their own when something could be actually done to correct the problem.

You're welcome to contribute voluntarily as much money as you'd like to assist in that instance.

What you're not able to do under any reasonable view of individual rights is steal from others for this purpose.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Anti
Posts: 4302
Incept: 2007-10-09
Silver
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Jsuwaldt, I wrote that as I was on my way out, maybe not thought out enough. Certainly returning to rational pricing is preferable and would preserve the government. I guess I was pointing out that the deflationary pain involved (aside from all issues of compassion and justice and whatever) would make them want to avoid it for that reason alone, just like they avoid a balanced budget.


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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
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