I Hope Everyone Is Ready
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-10-04 14:34
by Karl Denninger
in International
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I Hope Everyone Is Ready
 

Two points of note.

First, Iran's currency has effectively imploded; our inflationary games along with our "sanction" regime has caused a 20% daily drop in the Iranian currency value against the dollar.  This volatility in turn led to the disappearance of convertibility (duh!) which in turn means that things like food suddenly become very hard to obtain, even if you are putatively wealthy. 

Second, Syria and Turkey are having a little dust-up that could turn very not little in a hurry.  If you don't understand why this is important please get out a map and have a look at some of the potential problems that could immediately appear if this is not contained, and it may not be contained.

Janet Tavakoli penned a piece over on Huffington Post that deserves a read in this context.  As I have repeatedly noted, hungry bellies have a habit of rioting -- or becoming rather revolting.

The possibility of war breaking out in that part of the world cannot be dismissed at this juncture.  Nor can the possibility that a big part of this crap may be part and parcel of the United States (and our "pals") scratching each other's balls and kicking Iran in their's.

You be the judge if it's worth it thus far, and if it will continue to be worth it if, as appears increasingly likely, it blows up in our face.

Tickercon 1 is on deck if things get much warmer "over there."

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Vitchilo
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So far, Assad, even if his troops were bombed by Turkey did not retaliate and Erdogan seems to not want to do the stupid thing, aka invade/create a buffer zone in Syria.

Hopefully it stays somewhat calm... but even if it does in Syria, Iran's currency imploding means that the cost of starting a war/blocking the strait of hormutz is collapsing at the same rate the rial is... and that ain't good.


BREAKING :
Quote:
Report: Turkey Demands US Impose No Fly Zone Over Syria

Update the source is Debka files, which makes up stuff all the time... so take it with a huge grain of salt.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken

Jackl
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Financials are forcing the ME countries hands on this. When currency is destroyed this fast, theres only so many ways to maintain any kind of control.

Most of them lead to explosions. Both figuratively and literally.
Frat
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NKY
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Obammy needing something to divert attention from a ****ty non-teleprompter performance? Bombing some mother ****ers is one way to do it.


"Black swans a-fallin' on my head...."

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Debtpie
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Quote:
As I have repeatedly noted, hungry bellies have a habit of rioting -- or becoming rather revolting.


That is a good thing in Iran; the evil religious nuts running the place need to be strung up at the nearest bridge ASAP.

The people of Iran are very Western and the younger they are the less they want to nuke Israel or Destroy the Great Satan; quite the contrary...the want to visit and maybe even live in the land of Satan (USA).

Despite Netum Yahoo's claims of a fast approaching nuclear Iran, as depicted in his recent presentation complete with a Wile E. Coyote bomb drawing, Iran is on the verge of casting off it's religious zealot overlords and abandoning fanatical Islam.

What we need to do is help the people of Iran take back their own country...the absolute worst thing we can do is to send in the Marines or the Jews to bomb the place to dust...aka...the Romney plan...Now I see why Mittens want $2.1 Trillion more in military spending...WWIII is going to require at least that...
Inline

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Stonedog
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If Turkey does go to war with Syria, I think that there is a likely scenario where they would start something with Israel in the hope that they could bring in Egypt and other anti-Israeli countries (we already know that Iran has an alliance with Syria) or at the very least destabilize the region on the Arab Streets. Another question is whether the Kurds in Turkey (and perhaps Iraq) would try to take advantage of the situation to try to create a Kurdistan.

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Poer
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'Eppur si muove!'
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Thanks for the heads up KD

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"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality." Nathaniel Branden in Ayn Rands 'Capitalism The Unknown Ideal'
Snowmizuh
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If I liquidate my 401k/IRAs, convert every FRN I have or can get into tangibles (beans, bullets, bandaids, etc.) as well as defaulting on my mortgage, is that deflationary or inflationary? If everyone else starts doing the same as me, does that tend to be deflationary or inflationary?

I know the technical Austrian money supply definition of inflation, the fact the debt spends the same as M2 money, and all that. However, it is confusing to me because it appears there can be deflationary and inflationary forces working simultaneously. Which one wins?
Iou
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Quote:
That is a good thing in Iran; the evil religious nuts running the place need to be strung up at the nearest bridge ASAP.

Speaking of evil nuts … Let he without sin cast the first stone.

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
Jubber
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Kurdistan already exists and is prospering massively and has very close ties with Turkey, that is why Exxon have just gone in.

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Noodleman
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I don't think Obama will start a war over there unless he gets the buy-in from Russia and China, which won't be easy. The brave Nobel Peace Prize recipient likes to shoot at ducks in the pond. But if there is pushback from the big boys he'll fold first time every time.

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Vegasradar
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war is a good way to get velocity moving

War and gas shortages— rhymes of the 70s...

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Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi
Blackswan
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I am guessing this is not priced in either?


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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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A couple more days like that the rial is only going to be fully convertible with lillypads
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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Good thing we don't mismanage our finances like Iran...
Goforbroke
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Rut roh ... Walmart employees strike!

Quote:
Wal-Mart workers on strike

Employees protesting working conditions and retaliation are flexing their organizing muscle. But the first-of-its-kind strike carries risks.

Today, for the first time in Wal-Mart’s 50-year history, workers at multiple stores are out on strike. Minutes ago, dozens of workers at Southern California stores launched a one-day work stoppage in protest of alleged retaliation against their attempts to organize. In a few hours, they’ll join supporters for a mass rally outside a Pico Rivera, Calif., store. This is the latest – and most dramatic – of the recent escalations in the decades-long struggle between organized labor and the largest private employer in the world.


http://www.salon.com/2012/10/04/walmart_....

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We have met the enemy and it is us. -- Pogo
Drkshapiro
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I heard this AM that the rial was down 40% in the past week. Things could get bad very quickly. Netanyahu complaining about nuclear weapons in Iran is like Larry Flynt complaining about pornography. Remember (oops I forget his name--long time ago) okay, got it, Mordechai Vanunu who held up his hand to a reporter and had written on it the statement that Israel had nuclear weapons as he was getting hauled off by Shin Beth. When you have something hanging around after awhile the desire to use it gets the best of you.


Do you really think there's going to be a war, Sirius?

It feels like it felt last time.

KD I don't think you can quite get ready for what a mess things are becoming.

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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente
Debtpie
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Quote:
Quote:

That is a good thing in Iran; the evil religious nuts running the place need to be strung up at the nearest bridge ASAP.


Speaking of evil nuts … Let he without sin cast the first stone.


Can Mormons commit sins? If so, Romney is one stone throwing Mother ****er!

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
Drkshapiro
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I think a Mormon sin is getting your tubes tied.

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Don't let a kid drink til they're 21, but let 'em go to other countries and kill people, that's alright. --G Celente
Stonedog
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Jubber - as a region Kurdistan exists but not as a nation. Iraqi Kurdistan is an autonomous entity within the federal Iraqi republic. But they have wanted their own country for a long time.

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Duc888
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CT, the UNconstitution State
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It always amazes me how a few neighbouring countries like Jordan for instance continuously manage to dodge these upheavals.

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...burp
Budxr7
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Kent Moors talks about Karl's lilly pads.

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Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
-Polonius
Budxr7
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Sorry here is the link.
http://moneymorning.com/ob/faber-warns-e....

"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."

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Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
-Polonius
Iou
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Incept: 2009-03-16
A True American Patriot!
The Twilight Zone
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Quote:
KD I don't think you can quite get ready for what a mess things are becoming.

Nope, storing ammo and food isn’t going save you. You have to totally change who you are in order to truly prepare. Things that are important today will become a distant memory as the things we currently take for granite become scarce. Many will not make the transition when it’s forced on them.
Dmitry Orlov wrote..
Is it too late to prepare?
You have to become a different person. It's not a question of preparing based on who you are today, you have to become somebody else.

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
Chris92346
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So is somebody launching an attack against the currency? Or is this just the natural course of events playing itself out?


I have been told that war should never be necessary. If the elite actually wanted to stop wars all they would have to do was unite and shut down the said country economically.
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