For Romney, It's All Florida in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-09-21 11:27
by Karl Denninger
in Politics

For Romney, It's All Florida

The current Real Clear Politics Electoral Map makes clear what the story is here on this election: Florida.

Their current numbers are 247/191 for Obama. They also have Florida up by 2.1%, and if Obama wins Florida, it's over as that's 29 EVs.

The worse news is that this is one of Romney's best state among the battlegrounds. Ohio, for example is +4.2% for Obama, beyond the usual 3% margin of error. Michigan and Pennsylvania are effectively lost with 8%+ margins, which is why Real Clear has dropped them from the "battleground" list.

What's left are Virginia, where Obama leads by 3.7%, North Carolina where Romney has 2.7% (his best showing and only positive among the tossups), Nevada (+2.5%), Iowa (+2.3%) and Virginia (+4.7%, which is basically a done deal and murderously bad as that's 13EVs) I'm ignoring New Hampshire, incidentally, simply due to its tiny EV count.

If Obama gets Virginia he's 10 away from a lock. He then needs any two of the remainders, all of which he leads in other than North Carolina. If Obama wins Florida, or Ohio and any state other than New Hampshire, it's over.

Now I'm sure there will be those who argue the polls are biased, and I'm sure they are to some degree. The race is probably tighter than this implies (the implications are that you may as well not go vote as the game's up unless you're in Florida!) but this much is clear -- the campaigns believe these numbers.

How do I know this? Because I'm getting a literal half-dozen robocalls and/or live calls daily from polling and phone-bank organizations. The volume is much higher than it was in 2008, where there were multiple states in play.

It appears from this vantage point that Florida is basically it, although I bet Ohio is also getting similar degrees of attention.

Everywhere else?

Not so much.

So if you live in Florida you're living in the place where the Presidential race will actually be decided.

And right now, like it or not, Romney's odds do not look good.

Discussion below (registration required to post)

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User Info	For Romney, It's All Florida in forum [Market-Ticker]
Hogman Posts: 7874 Incept: 2008-02-18 Derby City, USA	Well, Obama (so far it appears) has Europe Mittens needs to exploit this some how 2012-09-21 11:32:14 Permalink
Jimg Posts: 180 Incept: 2009-02-04 Dunedin, FL	I personally wonder if the polls aren't skewed in favor of Romney. Don't the pollsters just call landlines? More and more people, mostly younger ones who tend to favor Obama, don't even have landlines anymore. 2012-09-21 11:35:45 Permalink
Blackswan Posts: 5562 Incept: 2007-11-06 Just outside of Philly	I hope there are hanging chads again in Florida. The rioting will be epic. ---------- Its checkmate. Everywhere its checkmate. Hugh Hendry 2012-09-21 11:38:31 Permalink
Noodleman Posts: 2388 Incept: 2008-11-01	Romney has already thrown the race away. I don't think he has any real intention to be President. For one thing he's made some incredibly stupid blunders that a high school kid running for homeroom president wouldn't make. And then consider that Romney has utterly failed to attack Obama on so many of the vulnerablilities that Obama has created for himself in the last 4 years. Romney has given him a big fat pass across the board. A man with years of experience and expertise in the political arena and who really wants to be POTUS wouldn't behave that way. And, no, it's not incompetence. I refuse to believe that a man with his background and experience could be so inept coming down the home stretch. It's rigged. ---------- "Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935 2012-09-21 11:40:12 Permalink
Jimg Posts: 180 Incept: 2009-02-04 Dunedin, FL	This from the Rasmussen web site: Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. Has anyone seen this "online survey tool"? I think I have - on Drudge. Blackswan - FL went the optical scanner route years ago under Governor Crist. No more hanging chads or black box voting. Last modified: 2012-09-21 11:42:51 by jimg 2012-09-21 11:41:05 Permalink
Fraudster Posts: 4173 Incept: 2011-05-10	Disagree. As you point out Virginia and Ohio are pretty much in the Obama column. That is his victory right there. Romney must win Florida. But Obama has many paths to victory that do not include Florida. http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPredictio.... http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPredictio.... http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPredictio.... http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPredictio.... TOSSUP 0✓ http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPredictio.... etc. ---------- *"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."* - Napoleon Bonaparte *"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]."* - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov Last modified: 2012-09-21 11:46:30 by fraudster 2012-09-21 11:44:14 Permalink
Irishblues Posts: 278 Incept: 2010-12-18 Wisconsin	From one die-hard GOP fanboi I know: -- "Carter was up 47-39 on Reagan going into their final debate. Romney is going to do the same thing this time around, he'll destroy Obama in the debates." -- "Romney is still going to take everything Obama didn't win by double digits in '08." Could it happen? Sure it could - but given each side's tendencies to make mistakes, I'd expect another 5 gaffes from Romney before I'd expect one from Obama. 2012-09-21 11:44:39 Permalink
Randy123 Posts: 5768 Incept: 2008-09-24 Earth	He can't win anymore. We need to moveon.org. ---------- China is the Enemy. Wake Up. New Normal. Same As The Old Awful. 2012-09-21 11:46:54 Permalink
Fraudster Posts: 4173 Incept: 2011-05-10	Romney is no Reagan. Tell your fanboy friend to stop smoking crack. ---------- *"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."* - Napoleon Bonaparte *"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]."* - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov 2012-09-21 11:47:51 Permalink
Debtpie Posts: 534 Incept: 2009-12-17	Iowa 9/20/2012 Ann Romney comes to town for a "Women for Mitt" rally. Now, you would think, given the time and expense involved, they would get the biggest venue they could possible fill to show the overwhelming support (among women) that exists for Mittens. Well... They were lucky if there were 50 people there...this is in a town of about 600,000...and check out the number of guys in the audience!...this is suppose to be a show of confidence for Romney from the women of Iowa... I think the proper title for this rally is: "Middle-aged/old white, far right, women and their husbands for Mitt rally" RCP has Obama up by 2.3% in Iowa...Gotta feeling that's way off... Women for Mitt draws 50 people (half of them men)...Obama shows up...literally down the street on a sweltering hot/humid day in August and 10,000 come out to see him...Ryan dropped in a few days after Obama, lucky if there were 50 old white guys there...Iowa by only 2.3%??? http://www.kcci.com/news/politics/Ann-Ro.... ---------- A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there. Last modified: 2012-09-21 11:59:00 by debtpie 2012-09-21 11:48:24 Permalink
Fraudster Posts: 4173 Incept: 2011-05-10	This is all so funny, yet it will be all so tragic when the incumbent gets back in. ---------- *"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."* - Napoleon Bonaparte *"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]."* - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov 2012-09-21 11:50:11 Permalink
Rln2433 Posts: 66 Incept: 2009-02-03 Virginia	Romney was one of the worst people that could have won the GOP nomination. He's a serious honky with waaaaay too much money for many people to connect with. Chris Christie or something like him in terms of passion and attitude was what they needed. How bad of a candidate do you have to be to lose to a failure like Obama? I understand that the true blue kool aid drinkers will always pull the lever as will the dependent folks but this election was ripe for the taking. EPIC FAIL 2012-09-21 11:50:44 Permalink
Fraudster Posts: 4173 Incept: 2011-05-10	Chris Christie's problem is he is a fat ass and that won't play well. And before you cut me down, explain how aesthetics and perception don't play into presidential politics, when they do in everyday society (I.e. fat people are discriminated against). I think Paul Ryan would have given Obama a better run for his money. ---------- *"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."* - Napoleon Bonaparte *"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]."* - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov 2012-09-21 11:53:53 Permalink
Pietertvl Posts: 3587 Incept: 2007-12-05 NFA	FWIW, I have the market topping next week, at least for a multi week correction. It could be just another pullback, or it could be more. Lets see if volume comes in this time on the decline, and then if it starts getting attention from j6p. Despite RC appearing to give BO the clear edge on the top, they also give decent odds to the Senate flipping over. So Reps would get both houses. So while I'd love to see BO "own" what's coming, the truth is that Congress (and the general public) owns this mess at least as much as W and BO collectively do. The banks of course, own this mess more than anyone. ---------- "All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams 2012-09-21 11:56:46 Permalink
Debtpie Posts: 534 Incept: 2009-12-17	Quote: Romney has utterly failed to attack Obama on so many of the vulnerablilities that Obama has created for himself in the last 4 years. Romney has given him a big fat pass across the board What's Romney going to attack Obama about? ObamaCare...oops! RomneyCare came first... Deficits...ooops! Left office with a $1 billion in debt...During the economic boom time to boot! President Romney.."No spending cuts the first year"...token $100 billion cut the second year. Jobs...ooops!...Ranked 47th in job growth while he was Governor. Foreign Policy...oooops!...no experience...first attempt...makes a fool out of himself. Just about every knife Romney could throw at Obama, would come right back at him...and he's proven horrible at dealing with those types of situations. He can't attack Obama because his record is nearly identical...all he can do is read from the Republican handbook and hope a chant spreads...but it's falling on too many deaf ears. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Quote: (Romney)He's a serious honky with waaaaay too much money for many people to connect with. That was my first thought way back when...way too white...so white he even annoys white people...he doesn't seem real...looks like a bad Chinese knock-off of Barbie Dolls boyfriend Ken...even Ken is way cooler in his doll life than Mittens...they should have just put up Ken...wouldn't have won, but would have gotten more votes than Gary...LOL! ---------- A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there. Last modified: 2012-09-21 12:05:27 by debtpie 2012-09-21 11:57:39 Permalink
Cluelessinfl Posts: 114 Incept: 2011-01-08 Florida East Coast	Noodleman wrote.. ...Romney has utterly failed to attack Obama on so many of the vulnerablilities that Obama has created for himself in the last 4 years... If you haven't heard of him attacking Obama it's because the media will not report it. Right after the 2000 election I heard a reporter ask a Democrat official how Bush managed to win. He said, and I remember this clearly: "FOX News allowed the Republicans to get their message out." Which means that normally the other news outlets DON'T allow the Republicans to get their message out. ---------- Land of the Free my ass. 2012-09-21 12:07:40 Permalink
Hogman Posts: 7874 Incept: 2008-02-18 Derby City, USA	Well debt You lost all credibility with the Ken way cooler bull**** Please vote for the cool white-african 2012-09-21 12:30:07 Permalink
Debtpie Posts: 534 Incept: 2009-12-17	Quote: If you haven't heard of him attacking Obama it's because the media will not report it. Did Rush Limbaugh tell you that? So Romney's losing because the evil leftist press won't spread his message and/or Obama attacks...that is beyond laughable. I've listened to Romney and Ryan live and in person...the bulk of what they have to say is read directly from the Republican handbook...and the "attacks" are the exact same crap that I get bombarded with non stop via TV commercials paid for by Mittens and his supporters. If you think Romney is losing, or not winning by a mile, because of the press, you are delusional. Romney/Ryan/Ann are losing because of what Romney/Ryan/Ann stand for... ~~~~~~~~~~~ Quote: Well debt You lost all credibility with the Ken way cooler bull**** Please vote for the cool white-african Ah, C'mon...that wasn't funny?..seriously, I mean take a good look at Mittens...you don't see the resemblance to a cheap Chinese knock-off of a Ken doll at all??? The race for President is mostly a popularity contest...the bulk do not care about in-depth analysis of the issues...they just look and listen to the candidates then vote for whom they like the best....Obama beats Mittens by a mile in a pure "likability" contest for everyone that's not a right wing cool-aid drinker...aka...independent voters...that's where you gotta win...the bulk of the people in the middle don't care about R or D...they just have to like you and you win... ---------- A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there. Last modified: 2012-09-21 12:47:37 by debtpie 2012-09-21 12:33:51 Permalink
Twainfan Posts: 147 Incept: 2010-12-01 Minnesota	@Debtpie I was listening to the Jason Lewis show up here in MN yesterday and he was on a rant that people hate Romney because he's rich. I nearly drove off the road laughing so hard. Jason is mostly Libertarian leaning but he still carries the bucket for the GOP like a good little soldier apparently. He just wouldn't shut up about the class warfare crap working. For some reason people are making every excuse in the book because they can't come to accept the fact that Romney and Obama are nearly identical in every way but skin color. Romney's policies and ideas are why he's losing. Simple as that. 2012-09-21 12:37:42 Permalink
Noodleman Posts: 2388 Incept: 2008-11-01	If you think you'd be screwed with Romney in the White House just wait until Obama becomes a lame duck. You're going to get the screwin' of your life. ---------- "Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935 2012-09-21 12:40:46 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 130679 Incept: 2007-06-26	So you're arguing that I should select a rapist based on the length of his penis instead of refusing to be raped at all? ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* 2012-09-21 12:42:40 Permalink
Mrbill Posts: 7842 Incept: 2008-10-19 North Carolina	Such a stupid argument. Any president can decide to not run for re-election and act like a lame duck, like the president actually has that much power on domestic policy anyway. 2012-09-21 12:49:42 Permalink
Debtpie Posts: 534 Incept: 2009-12-17	Quote: So you're arguing that I should select a rapist based on the length of his penis instead of refusing to be raped at all? So you're saying you have way to avoid being raped? Dude, you're (we're all) locked in a room with 1000's of rapists...it's gonna happen...if this is your first time, maybe you should go with guy that has the smallest dinger? No? Now I Know what Romney was thinking in this pic... PS> That's a mighty nice cob, Romney sure looks like he knows how to handle it..clutching it just right...a real pro...:) PSS> Like to see what he could do with a corn-dog...doubt he could top Bachmann, but I'm sure he could beat Mr.Starfish ---------- A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there. Last modified: 2012-09-21 13:06:47 by debtpie 2012-09-21 12:51:54 Permalink
Noodleman Posts: 2388 Incept: 2008-11-01	With all due respect, Karl, how exactly could one refuse to get raped? By leaving the country? On Nov 6 there will be one winner. Either Obama or Romney. If I am forced to submit to*****give me the smaller one. ---------- "Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935 2012-09-21 12:56:17 Permalink*

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