QE Aftermath -- Brace For Impact
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-09-14 09:33
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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QE Aftermath -- Brace For Impact
 

Listening to CNBC this morning is nauseating, quite frankly, especially Cramer.

I know, I know, the market is up.  It was up 200pts yesterday and this morning the futures are higher.  But the reality is that despite people saying "keeping cash in the bank is a fool's game" that logic discounts the risk in equities, and there is risk in equities.

Lots of it, in point of fact.

Bernanke's statement was that he would keep QEing until unemployment falls to where he wants it.

What happens if it does not come down at all, but rather goes up?

I want you to pay attention to this chart:

This is the population-adjusted change in employment on a monthly basis.

and

Now here's the ugly truth -- QE has not only failed, it has massively failed.

QE began in November of 2008. 

During that time the labor participation rate fell, flat-lined, and has refused to recover.

The evidence is clear: QE doesn't work to stimulate employment, it instead destroys jobs.

The reason it doesn't work is that it can't; QE by definition debases purchasing power as it increases the denominator of credit and money.  It is simply a sop to those who buy and speculate in the financial markets (in this case, in mortgages) but the positive effects on home prices are tiny.  If we get a 50 basis point move in mortgages (unlikely; the more likely move is 25bps) then the price support is only 3%!  If the more-reasonable expectation of 25bps is realized then the price support is 1.5%!

This is so tiny as to be beyond "marginal" and well-into the range of utterly insignificant and immaterial to the real economy.

As an investor, therefore, what should you expect?

  • The speculative "burst" higher may be maintained for a while, however....

  • When it wears off, and it will, equity prices will slide and accelerate, as if employment does not meaningfully improve then the market will come to realize that Bernanke's plan has failed -- as the evidence shows it already has.

The result?  Something very similar to what happened in Japan, where over time the effect of "QE to the moon!" faded and the Nikkei never managed to actually recover it's former levels.

20 years on the Nikkei stands at roughly 1/4 of where it was at their top.

Now that's something sobering to think about.

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Uppity_peasant
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Quote:
The result? Something very similar to what happened in Japan, where over time the effect of "QE to the moon!" faded and the Nikkei never managed to actually recover it's former levels.


Japan never had the twin problems of Foodzilla and Gaszilla to contend with, either.

What are the denizens of the Merkun Big City Plantations going to pay for food with? They don't get an inflation increase.

And I can't believe that everybody is just eating the $4 gasoline cost.

Unreal.

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Yeah, fuel was up 1.5% overnight here.

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Jubber
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DAX CAC IBEX &MIB not really drinking the koolaid here

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2dogs
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Quote:
Bernanke's statement was that he would keep QEing until unemployment falls to where he wants it.


smiley

QE to infinity ... and beyond!!!

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Mayorquimby
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BEST thing that can happen for bears is QE CAUSES exactly this - lower employment levels. That will end basically every scam they have going.

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Randy123
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I wish that were true Quim but what they will say is that they didn't do enough. It will never be enough.

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Trades50
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Quote:
The evidence is clear: QE doesn't work to stimulate employment, it instead destroys jobs.


Exactly!! Add in commodity prices taking off and Obama care and we do have a Japan Syndrome.

Bernanke and the Fed have guided us into the Japanese path.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Muscleknight
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How long will the market give BOB? How long will it be until impact occurs?

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Joshua_d
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I have pretty much resigned myself to the reality that most people simply are not going to act and prepare for the crash, or rather the continuing and intensifying crash that we are currently in.

I say this because I firmly believe that Americans are too far separated from work required to create the basic necessities of life – food, water, shelter. We get all of our goods at the end of amazingly long supply chain. I could sit here and write pages trying to explain exactly how long that chain is and I still don't think most people I know would get the picture. The division of labor may have made us more efficient, but it has also made us all more dependent and more vulnerable to the eventual break in the chain.

Most people simply aren't taking any steps at all to prepare for the day that the grocery store runs out of food, and it's going to happen. It may not happen everywhere, but it's going to happen in a lot of places and people are going to starve. The breaks in the chain will eventually be fixed, but it will take time for people to react and restart food production at a local level.

The same goes for investment. The supply chain for investing is extremely long and your traditional secure investments are being destroyed by the Chairsatan and the bankstas. However, people are so far from their money that they don't know how to get back. They are stuck in between a rock and a hard place and sadly, they are simply going to get crushed.

There is no happy ending to this situation. There is no easy way to fix this. But, there is plenty of hope.
Iou
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We have no safe place to put our savings. Gold, equities and bonds have been off the table for a while. You have to include Cash now with unlimited QEing. I feel sick.

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Jubber
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Has bondzilla entered stage right, that's quite a move?

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R2judge
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"The speculative "burst" higher may be maintained for a while, however...."

At this point, i would expect to tag the all time high or hit a nominal new all time high, simply because the market is so close to one.

The 2007 high was in October and it could work out that way again, a high in October, going into the strong season of the market.
Debtpie
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All I can say is that anyone that believes QE is about creating jobs is a sucker.

"QE for Jobs" is a smoke screen to justify bankrupting the nation to save the banks...it's really "QE for Recapitalizing Insolvent Banks at Taxpayer Expense"

That's the driver behind QE; no more complicated than that.

~~~~~~~

Price/Danger/Risk of the DOW? Look at this chart...we are now, for the 3rd time, at the very outer extremes of the trend channel:
Inline

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.
Noodleman
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I can only laugh when I read that Obama has a 7 pt. lead on Romney. With all the lies, financial games, bankster bailouts, acts of fascism, largest tax (Obamacare) in the history of the nation, perpetually high UE rate, large % of working aged people without work, opened doors to illegal foreigners to compete for available jobs, etc... how is it possible that the 'great one' would have such a large advantage going into November?? He shouldn't have a 7 pt. lead on SpongeBob SquarePants. It only shows the grave desperation that this country is in. 46 million on food stamps and growing. I heard the program being advertised on mainstream radio yesterday by the US Dept of Agriculture. As if we don't already have enough leeches. Now they are actively recruiting for more. And the advertisement said that owning a car or a home is not an automatic disqualifier! HAH! :^)

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R2judge
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Japan had the Nikkei, the U.S. the Nasdaq. Neither has returned to its all time high. However, the U.S. also has the DOW and S&P. Both of those have been driven to within inches of their all time highs.
Jubber
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Is this a blow off top?

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Debtpie
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Quote:
I can only laugh when I read that Obama has a 7 pt. lead on Romney...It only shows the grave desperation that this country is in


No, it shows what a dumbass Romney is! And that's not just the left leaning Independent in me speaking...that's the top of the R mouthpieces crying out too!

Independents will decide who wins...simple as that...Idependents are not Kool-aid drinkers of either party...yet Romney continues to run ads here in Iowa that are complete lies and Independents see right through them.

Why run lies when there are so many damaging truths to be told about Obama? Truths that would ring positively with Independents?

Why lies? Because Romney is no different than Obama...and he's a dumbass.

~~~~~~~~~

On a lighter note:

Here's some fantastic news!

Quote:
"UnitedHealth to replace Kraft in Dow 30"

Quote:
"S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the Dow, said Friday that the change will take effect at the start of trading Sept. 24. It said the change reflected the growing importance of health care spending in the U.S. economy. "
So the DOW will add a company that extracts wealth from the country; and kick out a company that adds wealth.

Lovely.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedheal....

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

R2judge
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"Price/Danger/Risk of the DOW? Look at this chart...we are now, for the 3rd time, at the very outer extremes of the trend channel:"

The attached chart was from 2008. This is 2012. The chart is an inflation adjusted chart, not a points of the DOW chart. The DOW is near 14,000, but not inflation adjusted. Thus we are not at the outer upper extreme of the trend channel on this particular chart.

The chart shows 1982 at a low. In terms of points, the DOW hit a low in 1974, not 1982. Adjusted for inflation, 1982 was the low.

Shannonlk1
Posts: 112
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Raleigh
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Just my opinion, but Based on what Bernanke will be buying, he is only doing it again to take bad debt off the banks. It tells me they are still swamped with bad debt due to housing. and its not getting better. It has absolutely nothing to do with helping unemployment. That is just a good excuse. Again. just my opinion.

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Vitchilo
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Quote:
Industrial Production Plunges Most Since March 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/industrial....

I guess Ben needs to crank up the presses even more!

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Frat
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Debt, I often despise your left-leaning comments but with your summation and ultimate conclusion: Romney being a dumbass, well it's spot-on. I won't vote for him. I hate Obama and everything he stands for, but I held my nose in '08 and went Mc****Stain. I won't do that again. I'd rather NOT vote and withdraw my consent completely. **** both of those *******s.


And great analysis JoshD. I started gardening 3 years ago, partly for fun, partly because I like to grow ****, but also as a learning experience should I need to help my family eat someday.

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Mo
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Quote:
I can only laugh when I read that Obama has a 7 pt. lead on Romney


Romney IS different from Obama: he wants to cut the tax rate of the one percent. Obama wants to raise it.


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Mrobe10586
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Could some one please tell me what Bernanke is promising to accomplish with this move? In other words, what is the mechanism for increasing employment he is purporting to start by buying MBS for "as long as it takes?"

To put it in organic chemistry terms, synthesize a job from the program of buying $40 billion in MBS every month with no end in sight.
Asimov
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Mrobe: More profits for the big banks. That's it. Really.

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