Employment Report: SUCKS
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-09-07 09:38
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Employment Report: SUCKS
 

There isn't any way to spin this one; I looked, I studied, I read it twice, three, four times.

Facts are what they are, and the facts are that this report sucks:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 96,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, in professional and technical services, and in health care.

Uh huh.

The reason the unemployment rate "edged down" is that 1.483 million people gave up and exited the workforce!  The Department of Labor Lies doesn't count anyone who gives up any longer, so the "unemployment rate" is claimed to have decreased.

But what's worse is that there were a net 868,000 fewer people with jobs in August over July, despite there being 212,000 more people of working age in the population.  That's right -- net-on-net over one million fewer people (adjusted for population change) were working last month.

If you were wondering why President Obama looked like an elephant had rammed him last night while he was on the podium and his usual "nose in the air" attitude was a bit more-subdued than usual, this is probably the reason.

Here's the charts.

Note that while the annualized rate of change is deteriorating it remains positive.  However, the monthly job picture was one of actual loss into a period that should be seasonally reasonable (summer hires tend to be laid off in September, not August!)

Here you can see that the total number of actual employed people (not adjusted for population) actually declined last month.

This is where your "unemployment rate" decrease came from -- people giving up. 

And right on schedule the alleged improvement in the employment rate of the population, which is the only figure in the report that matters for government sustainability as only employed people pay taxes, rolled over once again.  This is the "taker" .vs. "producer" figure, basically.

And finally, employment adjusted for population changes is found here:

That just plain continues to suck as it has for essentially the entire period from 2000 onward.

Obama better hope that this is the floor on that latter chart, for if it is not he's going to lose.  Next month's report will come right in front of the election and if we break the floor that we're sitting on now odds are that the market won't like it one little bit.

Oh, incidentally, this is a furhter confirmatory indicator that all the regional Fed surveys I've been talking about for three months are right -- and we're in a new "official" recession despite blowing $5 trillion in new federal borrowing trying to hide it.

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User Info Employment Report: SUCKS in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1566
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8.1, huh? So it's getting better, right?
Tnhermit
Posts: 348
Incept: 2009-02-18

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Marching toward that 7 number . That is all the drones will see
Bagbalm
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Just North of Detroit
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It's so bad they can't cover it up for a couple more months.
Scares me because they may have to go to war with Iran or something equally bad to distract the public from reality long enough to win the election.
Randy123
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Online
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Nothing QE can't fix.

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Burke13
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Texas
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Per Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech one week ago it's going to be QE3 to the "rescue" in 3...2...1...

After all, we got a dual-mandate to fulfill around here. To hell with stable prices! My only hope is that when this all ends poorly, the people making these decisions are all tried and punished (e.g. executed) for treason.
Smacktle
Posts: 1362
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May have to fly to DC and punch Bernanke in the mouth myself!

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- George Bernard Shaw
Salt
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Zerohedge reports it's the lowest employment rate for men since 1948, at 69.9%.
Aztrader
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Scottsdale, AZ
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These reports are so manipulated that their desparation is getting bolder with every report. Crappy real numbers, a made up unemployment rate, jobs added via Birth/death and an open door for more QE.

Will Ben pull out his QE before the election? Anyone with common sense knows that it won't do a damn thing for unemployment.

Every day is a NEW day in the Twlight Zone...................
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Az, the reason I use the household survey, NON-ADJUSTED numbers, is that they are a hell of a lot harder to fake. If you want seasonal adjustment just compare against the year-ago figures (which is why I put both annualized and monthly lines on the graphs smiley)

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Gen_maximus57
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I don't understand why they are not fudging the NFP data. Any guesses?

I bet there must be some anti Obamo people over there that are in charge of this one.
Trades50
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Quote:
Next month's report will come right in front of the election and if we break the floor that we're sitting on now odds are that the market won't like it one little bit.


Fixed. As Santelli said on CNBS this morning the unemployment rate will be adjusted down to 7.9% by election.

Diane Swonk and the rest of the QE crooners expect more QE to help equities out at the next Fed meeting. The crooners fail to realize they have a fiscal cliff coming up and the fed will probably save whatever QE BS they have until the end of the year. The Fed now realizes each QE has been less effective.

Mark Cuban brought up the matter of HF trading system causing a major crash. All those derivatives could blow up and cause major financial chaos.

The last quarter is when it gets real dicey.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Reza30
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Quote:
I don't understand why they are not fudging the NFP data. Any guesses?

I bet there must be some anti Obamo people over there that are in charge of this one.


inline
Jethrodull
Posts: 81
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North Texas
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Karl,
What effect does the retirement of the Baby Boomers have on the "left the workforce" number? Reports suggest that 10,000 per day are reaching retirement age, that's 300,000 plus a month that could be retiring (not likely that they all DO retire).

J
Mrbill
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The Employment-Population ratio only counts working-age population. So that ratio should go UP if it's just people retiring.
Flappingeagle
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I am suspecting that weak summer sales caused some of the September layoffs to be pulled forward into August.

Whether or not that happened, we blew 5 trillion to buy 4 years of time and a deeper hole to fall into.

Flap

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Muscleknight
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BOB will drop another 2.3 billion for 2 million more "jobs".

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Snowmizuh
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inline

smiley
Trades50
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Many of those 2009 cash rebate homes are now upside-down now.

Their giving out home loans to people who are upside down and requiring little down payment.

And all those subprime auto loans generating auto business for now.

Pile on the debt again, until it all comes due.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Mo
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Ben and O should consider sending out allowances for people every month to fix this job situation.






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Dashingdwl
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New job description: Government Check Casher.

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Jonesapple10
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Santelli said it best this am on CNBS when he predicted a 7.9% unemployment rate the Friday before election. Of course they have to tell a lot of small big lies until then instead of one BIG lie in November hence today's number.
Ben
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Quote:
Az, the reason I use the household survey, NON-ADJUSTED numbers, is that they are a hell of a lot harder to fake


Indeed, and when sensibly placed into context as you have in charts the bias of seasonal fluctuations goes away and trends are visible.

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Xqqme
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Just wait until the drought takes effect of the numbers. A field which produced 22 loads has dropped to 9 loads. This is gonna get ugly.
Hogman
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Az wrote..
Every day is a NEW day in the Twlight Zone...................


smiley
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