Productivity and Costs: Work Harder SLAVE!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-09-05 09:55
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Productivity and Costs: Work Harder SLAVE!
 

It's picking up again....

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.2 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases of 2.4 percent in output and 0.1 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, productivity increased 1.2 percent as output and hours worked rose 3.0 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. (See chart 1 and table A.)

Here's the chart:

Notice that during the early part of 2009 "productivity" surged.  Why?  Because when everyone around you is being laid off the message is clear even if implicit -- work harder, get paid less (see right side), or lose your job.

Now we're not quite into the "get paid less" phase (as of yet) but note the direction of costs (again, right side.)  This again is deflationary in the labor market as it was in early 2009, and is a much better indication of health (or lack thereof) in the labor market than the pumpers would have you believe.

There's nothing here to like.  Thus far the signal is not particularly strong, but if that unit labor cost number goes negative next quarter.....

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Productivity and Costs: Work Harder SLAVE! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep. My cost of living goes up about 3-5% a year I'd guess. My pay goes up 2% or less. Someday I will have nothing.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Azengrcat
Posts: 184
Incept: 2010-05-31

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hiring freezes, 105% yield minimums for workers, and only contract workers to deal with overflow. This is under the assumption of 0% growth for 5 years going forward.
Trades50
Posts: 4217
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
A way to for the banksters to force everyone to be surfs. Force anyone else not in debt to be in debt. Just to maintain a living, buy that car to work, they are forcing people to borrow. To keep the game going a bit longer. Until they have every nook and cranny loaded with debt.

----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Only one way to go. You hit the nail on the head a couple of years ago when you stated we couldn't continue to compete against offshoring to countries with slave labor conditions, manipulated currencies, and no environmental standards. To continue to pretend that we can will just lead us toward parity with those other economies.

Wouldn't it be better to try to help them up to our level of living rather than drag the working man down to their level. I'm not sure how that is done though as we now stand 6 or 7 billion strong on a rock with finite resources.

----------
I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Gates
Posts: 6276
Incept: 2008-01-29
Gold A True American Patriot!
Scottsdale
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Easy - kill off their work force, worked great in the 1940's...
Preidt2
Posts: 552
Incept: 2009-07-31
Green
spokane/wash
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
THE lieing lawyer says things are better in america...even with 16 TRILLION DEBT

----------
Puppets Under Destruction
Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Randy123,
Quote:
Yep. My cost of living goes up about 3-5% a year I'd guess. My pay goes up 2% or less. Someday I will have nothing.

Sounds EXACTLY like Gen's lessons on the basic math of what happens with 'two exponential curves'. . . .
smiley

----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9523
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl, I believe your second to last sentence needs a fix -
Genesis wrote..
There's something nothing here to like.



----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Anti
Posts: 4298
Incept: 2007-10-09
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Wouldn't it be better to try to help them up to our level of living rather than drag the working man down to their level.


Sir James Goldsmith wrote a book, "The Trap" in the 1990s where he talked about this. He predicted the effect that giving away access to our markets has had. The way to bring them up was to invest in them and build manufacturing there for their OWN market.

Some western capital and know-how would accelerate development and improve their lot within the needs and structure of their societies. I can imagine things like an African factory making all different and special kinds of water pumps that would be helpful to daily life there.

If I remember right, free trade would be amoung countries at equal development levels.

Also, IMO, we, the US, ought to limit our involvement to non-communist countries with established property rights and rule of law (which would mean we wouldn't be able to be involved with ourselves at the moment, sadly).

----------
Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Newcub14
Posts: 423
Incept: 2007-08-26

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Randy - I hear what you are broadly saying - but aren't you a teacher?

So you get 1. contract raise plus 2. annual step increase.

I've never seen a combination of those two under 2% in this state.

Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Newcub,

That would be incorrect. Last year I had a paycut. Here's how it worked. My district was frozen, i.e. same salary no move. Second, the cost of healthcare which we pay part of the premium went up so I took less home in my paycheck than the year before. I was mainly giving an average of the last few years. I may be lucky to get 2% moving forward, who knows...I'm all for shared sacrifice by the way...I just hate seeing bull**** inflation in needs when it doesn't have to happen.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Degaston
Posts: 2264
Incept: 2007-07-27
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Randy123, maybe you should go on strike and then have Rahm Emanuel cave in before election day and ensure you have an automatic 4% per annum pay hike like you're used to getting as a government leech while the rest of America has been flat the last decade. Or maybe this won't work IF you're not a Chicago public school teacher and you have to play by the real rules of labor laws, environmental laws, and NAFTA/GATT.

----------
3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.
Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm glad that's what you got from my post. You obviously haven't paid much attention to my views. I voted for Christie, by the way, and against my own self-interests. The problems facing America are more vast than bashing public employees or anyone else. Wise up.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Cutemloose
Posts: 699
Incept: 2008-02-12
Green
Southern England
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm not sure eactly how this data is raised, but if there is any NVA (non value add... for example a telephonist) employees in this data set then the change in productivity could be the result of these people being laid off. It would look like a change in productivity and a change in cost per unit output- but actually the workforce has simply been trimmed and some customer service lost.

If it is strictly only direct labor then Karls point stands.



----------
Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

----------
You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Peterm99
Posts: 4993
Incept: 2009-03-21
Gold
SoCal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Cutemloose -

Be careful with your definitions/assumptions. Just because an employee isn't directly producing a company's primary product, that does not necessarily mean that he's a non-value-add (NVA) employee.

I'd expect that for most private businesses, the real NVA employees were eliminated a long time ago. (Unless, of course, the companies got various types of subsidies from various gov't entities to keep them on.)

----------
". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Cutemloose
Posts: 699
Incept: 2008-02-12
Green
Southern England
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Pete, yes I agree.

In my experience when markets change the results are complicated and throw up anomalies. For example -cutting back of new product development may mean some layoffs in the design dept.- folk who used to add-value are now excess to requirement. $ turnover may not be down but head count is. This may make productivity look better- but it’s at the expense of new product pipeline.

In the UK many companies were holding onto staff in preparation for the coming uptick (as a result of stimulus), they were told it would be a matter of a few quarters. They can wait only so long before they shed these excess folks.
The companies that shed the folks early are the ones that are now stable and still sat on their cash reserves; the companies that believed the “it’ll be all over by xmas” official line have burnt through their reserves and are now looking fragile.

I guess I was hoping to understand more about the detail of this data set- my question is just about trying to understand the source data better than to question Karls conclusion.

----------
Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
Katniss99
Posts: 28
Incept: 2012-06-05

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Yep. My cost of living goes up about 3-5% a year I'd guess. My pay goes up 2% or less. Someday I will have nothing."

Exactly. We are in a race to the bottom.
Brewcrew2
Posts: 149
Incept: 2011-02-18

New Jersey
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Funny that this was posted yesterday. Our team (support staff) received word today that since the company is doing so well, we need to add a 3rd shift to meet peak seasonal demand. Yay! The catch is, the execs have decided to not add headcount for the support teams, only for production teams. So the four techs we have will need to cover 3 shifts a day, 6 days a week. No overtime either, but hey, we'll figure it out!
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ